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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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| | |-+  Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)  (Read 33293 times)
lilTommy
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« Reply #25 on: January 26, 2017, 09:48:02 am »
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Looking at a map Meewasin doesn't look all that suburban to me...its close to downtown and mostly right by the river

Well, the northern half of the riding is suburban.



Saskatoon Meewasin includes the neighbourhoods of River Heights, Richmond Heights, City Park, North Park, and Kelsey-Woodlawn.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 10:16:35 am by lilTommy »Logged
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« Reply #26 on: January 26, 2017, 02:21:24 pm »
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River Heights and Richmond Heights are suburban, and vote SP/Tory
North Park is a swing neighbourhood
City Park and Kelsey-Woodlawn vote NDP
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« Reply #27 on: January 26, 2017, 02:36:47 pm »
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Saskatoon is such a small city that literally anything outside the central business district would look like "suburbia" to someone from any other city in Canada.
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« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2017, 10:30:10 am »
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Gouin: PQ still on uncertain on their candidate.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



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« Reply #29 on: February 01, 2017, 11:32:30 am »
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I'm sure that Hatman will create a much better map later, but for now, here's my sh**tty Saskatoon Meewasin poll map from the 2016 election.

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« Reply #30 on: February 01, 2017, 05:08:05 pm »
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Calgary Heritage: Richardson won't run.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
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« Reply #31 on: February 03, 2017, 05:35:13 pm »
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Saint-Laurent: Yolande James is considering.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
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« Reply #32 on: February 05, 2017, 07:31:04 pm »
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Ottawa-Vanier: Mona Fortier will be the next MP.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
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« Reply #33 on: February 06, 2017, 08:36:50 am »
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Saskatoon by-election being held on March 2nd.
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« Reply #34 on: February 08, 2017, 08:43:50 am »
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/saskatoon-meewasin-mainstreet-poll-1.3971635

46% NDP
23% Sask Party
4% Liberal
4% Green

Holy smokes, the Sask Party is getting blown out of the water. This is a riding where they won a majority of the vote just 10 months ago, and now they're struggling to retain half of their previous vote share. With this being a by-election, I doubt many of the undecideds will end up voting.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #35 on: February 08, 2017, 08:46:55 am »
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You beat me to it! here are the Decided as well, even worse for the SP

So not so close in Saskatoon-Meewasin...
All Voters (Decided+Leaning)
NDP - 46% (59%)
SP - 23% (30%)
SL - 4% (7%)
Green - 4% (4%)
undecided - 23%
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« Reply #36 on: February 08, 2017, 08:58:48 am »
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Mainstreet Polling is a regular here in Saskatchewan, and they're usually pretty accurate.. If Saskatoon-Meewasin is actually this lopsided, then I imagine the NDP would wipe out most of the Sask Party's caucus in Regina and Saskatoon.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #37 on: February 08, 2017, 09:32:31 am »
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Mainstreet Polling is a regular here in Saskatchewan, and they're usually pretty accurate.. If Saskatoon-Meewasin is actually this lopsided, then I imagine the NDP would wipe out most of the Sask Party's caucus in Regina and Saskatoon.

I think its part candidate, Meili is highly regarded as a Doctor, and a former leadership candidate who members have been dying to have run but also a riding the NDP does well in even when they do not win it. Also its been nothing but bad news for the SP since winning the last election... polling has had the NDP on the upswing in both cities since then.
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« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2017, 07:47:52 pm »
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Grain of salt, etc. But good news nonetheless. And also, happy to see Elections Saskatchewan has finally released the poll by poll results of the last election.
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« Reply #39 on: February 09, 2017, 03:50:22 pm »
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Hatman, how would you conduct a public opinion poll for a race where there were 29 candidates on the ballot, like the Ward 42 by-election?
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« Reply #40 on: February 09, 2017, 04:37:06 pm »
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Hatman, how would you conduct a public opinion poll for a race where there were 29 candidates on the ballot, like the Ward 42 by-election?

Depends on the mode:
-Phone (interviewers wouldn't read the list, unless asked)
-Online (no problem, just list everyone)

Your big problem is if it's IVR, because you need to read the list (press '1' for X). I would try to identify who the main candidates are and have an 'other' option. Smiley
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« Reply #41 on: February 09, 2017, 04:59:11 pm »
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Hatman, how would you conduct a public opinion poll for a race where there were 29 candidates on the ballot, like the Ward 42 by-election?

Depends on the mode:
-Phone (interviewers wouldn't read the list, unless asked)
-Online (no problem, just list everyone)

Your big problem is if it's IVR, because you need to read the list (press '1' for X). I would try to identify who the main candidates are and have an 'other' option. Smiley

When I was IVR-polled for the Conservative leadership race a few weeks ago, the message read through all the names (... and press 1-4 for Brad Trost...).  It took such a long time, I couldn't imagine doubling the candidates.

By the way, if you want to remember the names of all 14 CPC leadership candidates, just use the mnemonic:  STOP ROBBOCALLS

(Damn you, Steven Blaney!)
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DL
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« Reply #42 on: February 09, 2017, 05:00:57 pm »
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Needless to say it is virtually impossible to do an online survey in a municipal ward since there is no online sample/panel at that granular a level.

Even doing a phone poll in that ward is very very difficult since that ward is very new and heavily heavily made up of recent immigrants - most of whom only have cell phones and no land line and since it is impossible to get cell sample at the ward level - you can only poll landlines - which may be very unrepresentative of the voters.

FWIW, I expect Neethan Shan to win simply because on a 29 person ballot - he is the one and only candidate who has run in that area several times before and would be a recognizable name
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« Reply #43 on: February 10, 2017, 09:31:59 am »
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Needless to say it is virtually impossible to do an online survey in a municipal ward since there is no online sample/panel at that granular a level.

Even doing a phone poll in that ward is very very difficult since that ward is very new and heavily heavily made up of recent immigrants - most of whom only have cell phones and no land line and since it is impossible to get cell sample at the ward level - you can only poll landlines - which may be very unrepresentative of the voters.

FWIW, I expect Neethan Shan to win simply because on a 29 person ballot - he is the one and only candidate who has run in that area several times before and would be a recognizable name

Yeah, I expect him to win too. And maybe with 10-15% of the vote!
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« Reply #44 on: February 10, 2017, 02:55:40 pm »
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Saint-Laurent: DeSousa is running. As is Yolande James.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



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« Reply #45 on: February 11, 2017, 07:41:08 am »
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Trudeau has been taking his time calling the by-elections, but Ottawa-Vanier is due in about a week, so we should have some federal ones to watch.
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« Reply #46 on: February 13, 2017, 01:36:02 pm »
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Gouin: PQ won't field a candidate.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #47 on: February 13, 2017, 03:35:56 pm »
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Why would they do that?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #48 on: February 13, 2017, 04:45:38 pm »
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PQ's trying to forge a closer relationship and QS would win anyway.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
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« Reply #49 on: February 13, 2017, 08:37:31 pm »
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As I expected, former Ontario NDP President Neethan Shan won the Ward 42 byelection in toronto. The margin is impressive as he got 46% in a 29 person field and the second place guy got 12%. Interestingly the guy who was public endorsed by Doug Ford AND was backed by the Ontario Liberal machine And was backed by outgoing council Cho came in third with less than 10% of the vote
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