Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[lilTommy]

Wow. Not good news for the NDP. But I'm glad the Liberals lost the seat. I really hated how they dealt with the electoral reform plebiscite.

Any particular reason for this? for the last few, two elections or so, the NDP and Greens have been fighting each other for third, and the Greens have been winning the fight now, any local PEI reasons? This isn't the case in NS, and might be the case in NB, but I think we need to see what happens after the next election there. But looks like in PEI the anti-Liberal progressive vote is going Green over NDP?

[Hatman 🍁]

PEI is not really the beacon of socialism. The Greens are doing well because of a desire for change and due to its cultural NIMBYism I think.

This is all very interesting of course, because I could see the Greens actually forming government one day. They have the momentum. All it would take is a dumb premature election call a la Theresa May or Jim Prentice.

[DL]

Wow. Not good news for the NDP. But I'm glad the Liberals lost the seat. I really hated how they dealt with the electoral reform plebiscite.

Any particular reason for this? for the last few, two elections or so, the NDP and Greens have been fighting each other for third, and the Greens have been winning the fight now, any local PEI reasons? This isn't the case in NS, and might be the case in NB, but I think we need to see what happens after the next election there. But looks like in PEI the anti-Liberal progressive vote is going Green over NDP?

It’s very simple. In the last PEI election the Greens lucked out my narrowly electing their leader while the NDP narrowly missed electing theirs. Now the Greens have the legitimacy of having a seat and scoop up the “neither red nor blue” vote

[DC Al Fine]

Wow. Not good news for the NDP. But I'm glad the Liberals lost the seat. I really hated how they dealt with the electoral reform plebiscite.

Any particular reason for this? for the last few, two elections or so, the NDP and Greens have been fighting each other for third, and the Greens have been winning the fight now, any local PEI reasons? This isn't the case in NS, and might be the case in NB, but I think we need to see what happens after the next election there. But looks like in PEI the anti-Liberal progressive vote is going Green over NDP?

It’s very simple. In the last PEI election the Greens lucked out my narrowly electing their leader while the NDP narrowly missed electing theirs. Now the Greens have the legitimacy of having a seat and scoop up the “neither red nor blue” vote

Are you thinking of New Brunswick? PEI's Green party leader got over half the vote in his seat.

[DC Al Fine]

PEI is not really the beacon of socialism. The Greens are doing well because of a desire for change and due to its cultural NIMBYism I think.

This is correct. PEI is also becoming "Vermontified" for lack of a better word. There's a decent number of Green friendly types immigrating from other provinces to work in tourism and agriculture because they like the idyllic lifestyle.

[Hatman 🍁]

PEI is not really the beacon of socialism. The Greens are doing well because of a desire for change and due to its cultural NIMBYism I think.

This is correct. PEI is also becoming "Vermontified" for lack of a better word. There's a decent number of Green friendly types immigrating from other provinces to work in tourism and agriculture because they like the idyllic lifestyle.

So what you're saying is the NDP needs to get a Bernie Sanders type to run there?

[DC Al Fine]

PEI is not really the beacon of socialism. The Greens are doing well because of a desire for change and due to its cultural NIMBYism I think.

This is correct. PEI is also becoming "Vermontified" for lack of a better word. There's a decent number of Green friendly types immigrating from other provinces to work in tourism and agriculture because they like the idyllic lifestyle.

So what you're saying is the NDP needs to get a Bernie Sanders type to run there?

Precisely

[the506]

I think it's simple. The PEI Green party managed to luck out by choosing a more personable leader than the NDP, so they were in the best position to take advantage of the island's "Vermontification".

It's a very localized situation. In NS that hasn't happened at all, and the Greens remain a fringe party. In NB, Coon is popular in his own riding and among a certain segment of the population, but that hasn't translated into mass province-wide support.

[toaster]

PEI is not really the beacon of socialism. The Greens are doing well because of a desire for change and due to its cultural NIMBYism I think.

This is all very interesting of course, because I could see the Greens actually forming government one day. They have the momentum. All it would take is a dumb premature election call a la Theresa May or Jim Prentice.

Which is interesting, considering its small population base actually requires huge public subsidies to run programs and the province.  Also much easier to get any small party elected when you have ridings where the winner doesn't even get 1000 votes.

[adma]

Which is interesting, considering its small population base actually requires huge public subsidies to run programs and the province.  Also much easier to get any small party elected when you have ridings where the winner doesn't even get 1000 votes.

For perspective's sake, PEI would be about the same size as, I dunno, Etobicoke-Lakeshore in its pre-2015 boundaries...

[Lotuslander]

So... 4 fed by-elections on Monday. I'm here in South Surrey-White Rock and while my previous post suggested leaning CPC... right now I'm on the fence for plethora of reasons.

BTW, this riding, among many Metro Van ridings, is one of those that folk don't use lawn signs to publicly display their political affiliation on their proverbial arm sleeves. Current by-election corroborates same.

Liberals have the better candidate in SS-WR in terms of former White Rock mayor/long-time BC Lib MLA Gordie Hogg. Liberals also have a much better/well known retail fed poli leader in terms of JT.

JT has campaigned twice in the riding. First time drew ~1,000 folk on weekday afternoon to WR coffee shop. Last Saturday, ~ 1,500 - 2,000 showed up for JT rally at Semihamoo HS:





Frankly, the foregoing is mind-blowing - completely outta sync from historical voting patterns in riding.

OTOH, CPC leader Scheer tours some fringe potato chip plant in a rural ALR NE portion of the riding. No voters there. And, frankly, the CPC nominated terribly here.

And then we get to latest polling sub-sample sizes for BC:

Leger (n=186 - opt-in online panel methodology):

Liberal: 47%
CPC: 27%
Green: 15%
NDP: 11%

http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/La%20politique%20federale%20au%20Canada_20171202_ENv3.pdf

OTOH, Forum Research (n=166 - IVR methodology):

CPC: 43%
Liberal: 32%
Green: 12%
NDP: 12%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/f6183b5c-adce-4f57-a238-e66efd96ea76Federal%20Horserace%20November.pdf

Again, completely different political preference outcomes by different pollsters/different methodologies even though both were in the field in relatively the same time frame. Granted, any sample size with n<300 can be considered useless.

As an aside, the 2015 federal NDP candidate in Surrey South-White Rock - Pixie Hobby - is now endorsing the federal Greens in this by-election.

Mainstreet Research prez was quoted in the Hill Times as follows:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Within "5%"? Yet Mainstreet does not release any detailed riding polling data.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2017/12/04/liberals-unseat-tories-competitive-vancouver-area-byelection/127314#pq=Kap1cZ

Within the past week, Mustel (long-time BC CATI pollster), which has nailed every BC election/fed BC election result for ~20 years (pre-2013), had this BC finding with larger sample size:

"Overall Performance of Federal Gov't":

Wrong Track: 40%
Right Track: 33%
Don't Know: 23%

So how does one rationalize all of the conflicting foregoing data? Ya just can't. Again, I'm now sitting on the fence on Monday's outcome. Grab your bag of popcorn and watch the result come in.

[adma]

It may be phantom signage; but still, in the part of Scarborough-Agincourt I drove through this morning, the NDP seemed to be out-signing the Conservatives. (On that evidence, a sure Liberal hold, I presume.)

[RogueBeaver]

CBC calls BBT for the Grits. https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/940383748125876224

[emcee0]

Grits won Scarborough Agincourt and Tories won Battlefords Lloydminister,
Gordie Hogg has a narrow early lead in SSWR

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like Grits take SSWR.

[136or142]

60/199 polls

Hogg 3,228
Findlay 2,884

[RogueBeaver]

Too early for congrats, Adam?

[136or142]

70/199
Hogg 3,887
Findlay 3,561

[136or142]

Too early for congrats, Adam?

Possibly.

[emcee0]

I think Gordie wins a squeaker.

[136or142]

80/199
Hogg 4,510
Findlay 3,963

[emcee0]

Abysmal numbers for the NDP. Can't help but point out that Yip's margin of victory in Scarborough is pretty underwhelming.

[136or142]

95/199
Hogg 5,379
Findlay 4,800

[136or142]

100/199
Hogg 5,729
Findlay 5,150

[136or142]

120/199 polls
Hogg 6,979
Findlay 6,392