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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)  (Read 34117 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #625 on: December 14, 2017, 10:11:35 pm »

Only seven polls out of 22 in, but based on the lead I think we can call this already for Jason Kenney.  I expected him to win easily, but if these results hold up it will be a bigger win than I thought.
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« Reply #626 on: December 14, 2017, 10:25:10 pm »

CBC decision desk has now called it for Kenney.  Only interesting thing will be to see the final numbers, but looks like a yuge win for Kenney.
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« Reply #627 on: December 14, 2017, 11:02:06 pm »

Final results as follows

UCP  71.51%
NDP  16.79%
Liberals 9.30%
Reform Party 1.26%
Green Party 0.55%
Leslie Wayne Ind. 0.39%
Larry Heather Ind. 0.20%

So a massive win for Kenney.  This is almost 9 points above the combined PC + WRP vote in 2015 although ironically very close for all three main parties to what they got in the federal election in 2011 in Harper's riding of Calgary Southwest which includes Calgary-Lougheed and other areas.  Total votes cast was 10,852 while in 2015 it was 16,974 so not a bad turnout for a by-election although I kind of suspect low turnout helped Kenney as generally those mad at the government are more motivated to show up.

Still a good showing for the UCP and if those numbers hold into 2019 (which is no guarantee) they should win easily.  Not a good night for the NDP, but this was not a riding they were ever going to win anyways, but if they are to win in 2019, they will need to do better than what they did here.  But at least they have time in that the next election is about 17 months away.
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« Reply #628 on: December 15, 2017, 09:35:15 am »

Swings:

UCP: +8.35% (from combined WRP + PC)
NDP: -15.24%
ALP: +4.48%

UCP notional HOLD (+11.80%)
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« Reply #629 on: December 15, 2017, 10:18:03 am »

In looking through the Lougheed results, one point of interest is that it appears Kenney underperformed in the northern part of the riding (Woodbine and Woodlands; the area north of Fish Creek Park), which is whiter, older, and wealthier than the riding as a whole. This is a reverse of results from the 2015 provincial and 2017 municipal election, where the northern part of the riding was friendlier to conservatives compared to the southern part. It's possible that this was caused by lower turnout amongst NDP-friendly younger voters, who are more prominent in the south of the riding (particularly in Bridlewood, the community that was built most recently out of those in the riding), combined with Kenney's organizational strength in minority communities (which are also more prominent in the south, with notable Chinese and Filipino concentrations), but that's a pure guess.
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« Reply #630 on: December 15, 2017, 12:03:42 pm »

Well, the NDP and combined conservative vote was more evenly distributed in 2015.

Here are the election day results by neighbourhood:

Bridlewood
UCP: 69.6% (+10.2)
NDP: 19.6% (-14.9)
ALP: 7.9% (+2.1)

Evergreen
UCP: 74.2% (+9.7)
NDP: 14.2% (-16.8 )
ALP: 9.4% (+4.8 )

Woodbine
UCP: 63.0% (+0.6)
NDP: 21.3% (-11.2)
ALP: 11.8% (+6.8 )

Woodlands
UCP: 61.6% (-2.2)
NDP: 23.4% (-7.7)
ALP: 12.3% (+7.1)

Interesting swing in Woodlands...
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« Reply #631 on: December 16, 2017, 12:39:29 am »


Also in BC, it will be interesting to see how the Green Party does in Kelowna West as using your argument they should decline although since the BC Liberals are likely to get over 50% won't be enough for the NDP to pick it up, but perhaps increase their vote share.  The only way the NDP could ever win this is if there was no Greens and the BC Conservatives were really strong and split the right wing vote perfectly evenly which won't happen anytime soon.

Interesting tidbit about 4 fed by-elections, which I heard on Global news - largest NDP pop. vote decrease was in SS-WR compared to 2015. Not surprising since NDP *brand* in BC always diminishes/collapses  after BC NDP wins gov't in BC. Compared to post 1972/1991 BC NDP gov't elections, this drop is earliest yet. Remember that fed NDP brand collapsed after 1 1/2 years of BC NDP gov't in subsequent 1974/1993 fed elections - to just 2 seats.

As for Kelowna West by-election - suspect BC Libs will again win well in excess of 60%. With current BC poli political fallout... either Greens or perhaps even BCCP will supplant BC NDP 2nd place finish in 2017. I have no doubt about that. Another grab your bag of popcorn moment as results come in next February. Wink
« Last Edit: December 16, 2017, 12:43:39 am by Lotuslander »Logged
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« Reply #632 on: December 16, 2017, 09:48:01 am »

Not often you see two party leaders going head to head in a riding, even if one of them is DOA.

It reeks of desperation from the Liberals.  This kind of thing happens all the time actually, but almost exclusively by fringe parties.

Honestly, this is a good indicator that the Alberta Liberals are a fringe party. A relatively strong fringe party, but a fringe party nonetheless. Running one's leader against a major party leader is Christian Heritage/Marxist-Leninist/Libertarian territory.
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« Reply #633 on: December 16, 2017, 03:00:14 pm »

I wouldn't put them into fringe party status yet. Their by-election performance was... respectable... but definitely below expectations. But yeah, it was definitely a fringe party move to run their leader.  Real parties wait for a good opportunity Wink
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« Reply #634 on: December 17, 2017, 07:31:11 am »

I wouldn't put them into fringe party status yet. Their by-election performance was... respectable... but definitely below expectations. But yeah, it was definitely a fringe party move to run their leader.  Real parties wait for a good opportunity Wink

I guess it depends on how one defines fringe parties. I would put them at the same level as the federal Greens.
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« Reply #635 on: December 18, 2017, 08:40:50 am »

None of those seats are NDP targets. Don't buy into the pundit narrative that the NDP is dead because it did terrible in a bunch of seats they didn't really bother to campaign in.

One very important thing to realize when it comes to by-elections (and this should be evident to anyone who has followed more than a half dozen over the years) is that typically voters treat them differently than general elections, in that they often become strict two-party races compared to how they would vote in a general election. Whether this is because would-be third party voters are staying home or voting strategically is up for debate, but the evidence is clear. Even though there is no difference between a by-election and a general election in terms of how our voting system works, voters psychological inclinations are different. In a general election, voters will often vote for their preferred party rather than candidate, while in a by-election it is more about the local race.

You needn't go any further than the Vaughan 2010 by-election to see what I mean. The NDP won just 1.7% of the vote; 5 months later they went back up to 12% in the riding, and we all know how well they did across the country in the 2011 election. Their pitiful result was not a harbinger for the future.

The next true test for the NDP will be in Outremont. Conventional wisdom suggests the Liberals will get it back, but tell that to Denis Coderre. The Montreal mayoral race was a good NDP-Liberal proxy race, and Plante won Outrement, so, I wouldn't count the NDP out there quite yet.

True, but I think these results suggest the NDP isn't really competitive nationally (not that you would necessarily disagree with that.)

I realize this part of Scarborough has never been a big NDP area but parts of Scarborough are and I think it may be indicative that the NDP can't break through in the rest of Scarborough despite having prominence in other parts of the (former) city and despite having elected a number of high profile people from Scarborough.

Of course, it's possible Scarborough is similar to Surrey.  Just because the NDP is competitive in North Surrey, I'd hardly expect them to be competitive in South Surrey.

In the case of Battlefords-Lloydminster, I gather this was smaller than the present riding and the additional areas aren't as NDP friendly, but the NDP won the previous riding of Battlefords-Meadow Lake at times up until 1993.  (The NDP was at times competitive in, but never won the Kindersley-Lloydminster riding.)

Of course, the demographics have changed and the NDP has changed as well, but, I think it's fair to say that neither Scarborough nor rural northern Saskatchewan aren't areas where the NDP is unheard of and that it's fair to question if it means anything that in these byelections that they basically received the vote share of a largish fringe party.

« Last Edit: December 18, 2017, 09:13:05 am by 136or142 »Logged



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« Reply #636 on: December 18, 2017, 08:47:42 am »

I wouldn't put them into fringe party status yet. Their by-election performance was... respectable... but definitely below expectations. But yeah, it was definitely a fringe party move to run their leader.  Real parties wait for a good opportunity Wink

I guess it depends on how one defines fringe parties. I would put them at the same level as the federal Greens.

The federal Greens put up strong results whenever they run their leader somewhere (well, hasn't happened in a while since May has been an MP since 2011, but the results in London North Centre in 2006 and Central Nova in 2008 are pretty indicative). Not so true of the Alberta Liberals apparently.
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« Reply #637 on: December 18, 2017, 11:51:11 am »

None of those seats are NDP targets. Don't buy into the pundit narrative that the NDP is dead because it did terrible in a bunch of seats they didn't really bother to campaign in.

One very important thing to realize when it comes to by-elections (and this should be evident to anyone who has followed more than a half dozen over the years) is that typically voters treat them differently than general elections, in that they often become strict two-party races compared to how they would vote in a general election. Whether this is because would-be third party voters are staying home or voting strategically is up for debate, but the evidence is clear. Even though there is no difference between a by-election and a general election in terms of how our voting system works, voters psychological inclinations are different. In a general election, voters will often vote for their preferred party rather than candidate, while in a by-election it is more about the local race.

You needn't go any further than the Vaughan 2010 by-election to see what I mean. The NDP won just 1.7% of the vote; 5 months later they went back up to 12% in the riding, and we all know how well they did across the country in the 2011 election. Their pitiful result was not a harbinger for the future.

The next true test for the NDP will be in Outremont. Conventional wisdom suggests the Liberals will get it back, but tell that to Denis Coderre. The Montreal mayoral race was a good NDP-Liberal proxy race, and Plante won Outrement, so, I wouldn't count the NDP out there quite yet.

True, but I think these results suggest the NDP isn't really competitive nationally (not that you would necessarily disagree with that.)

I realize this part of Scarborough has never been a big NDP area but parts of Scarborough are and I think it may be indicative that the NDP can't break through in the rest of Scarborough despite having prominence in other parts of the (former) city and despite having elected a number of high profile people from Scarborough.

Of course, it's possible Scarborough is similar to Surrey.  Just because the NDP is competitive in North Surrey, I'd hardly expect them to be competitive in South Surrey.

In the case of Battlefords-Lloydminster, I gather this was smaller than the present riding and the additional areas aren't as NDP friendly, but the NDP won the previous riding of Battlefords-Meadow Lake at times up until 1993.  (The NDP was at times competitive in, but never won the Kindersley-Lloydminster riding.)

Of course, the demographics have changed and the NDP has changed as well, but, I think it's fair to say that neither Scarborough nor rural northern Saskatchewan aren't areas where the NDP is unheard of and that it's fair to question if it means anything that in these byelections that they basically received the vote share of a largish fringe party.



If the NDP won a majority government, it would include exactly zero of those seats, so their result is indicative of nothing.

Though, I've come to terms with the fact that the NDP won't be winning a majority with Singh. They need rural Quebec to get a majority, and that's not happening. That's why the result in the Lac Saint Jean by-election is more worrisome.
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« Reply #638 on: December 18, 2017, 12:36:33 pm »

None of those seats are NDP targets. Don't buy into the pundit narrative that the NDP is dead because it did terrible in a bunch of seats they didn't really bother to campaign in.

One very important thing to realize when it comes to by-elections (and this should be evident to anyone who has followed more than a half dozen over the years) is that typically voters treat them differently than general elections, in that they often become strict two-party races compared to how they would vote in a general election. Whether this is because would-be third party voters are staying home or voting strategically is up for debate, but the evidence is clear. Even though there is no difference between a by-election and a general election in terms of how our voting system works, voters psychological inclinations are different. In a general election, voters will often vote for their preferred party rather than candidate, while in a by-election it is more about the local race.

You needn't go any further than the Vaughan 2010 by-election to see what I mean. The NDP won just 1.7% of the vote; 5 months later they went back up to 12% in the riding, and we all know how well they did across the country in the 2011 election. Their pitiful result was not a harbinger for the future.

The next true test for the NDP will be in Outremont. Conventional wisdom suggests the Liberals will get it back, but tell that to Denis Coderre. The Montreal mayoral race was a good NDP-Liberal proxy race, and Plante won Outrement, so, I wouldn't count the NDP out there quite yet.

True, but I think these results suggest the NDP isn't really competitive nationally (not that you would necessarily disagree with that.)

I realize this part of Scarborough has never been a big NDP area but parts of Scarborough are and I think it may be indicative that the NDP can't break through in the rest of Scarborough despite having prominence in other parts of the (former) city and despite having elected a number of high profile people from Scarborough.

Of course, it's possible Scarborough is similar to Surrey.  Just because the NDP is competitive in North Surrey, I'd hardly expect them to be competitive in South Surrey.

In the case of Battlefords-Lloydminster, I gather this was smaller than the present riding and the additional areas aren't as NDP friendly, but the NDP won the previous riding of Battlefords-Meadow Lake at times up until 1993.  (The NDP was at times competitive in, but never won the Kindersley-Lloydminster riding.)

Of course, the demographics have changed and the NDP has changed as well, but, I think it's fair to say that neither Scarborough nor rural northern Saskatchewan aren't areas where the NDP is unheard of and that it's fair to question if it means anything that in these byelections that they basically received the vote share of a largish fringe party.



If the NDP won a majority government, it would include exactly zero of those seats, so their result is indicative of nothing.

That is the argument I heard some NDP strategist state after the results of the by-elections and I was speculating right before coming here if you had the same opinion.  I personally can't see how the NDP gets to 170 seats without winning ridings where the NDP is sometimes strong at the provincial level and has been previously strong at the federal level like Battlefords-Lloydminster.  

Maybe the demographics of that riding are too difficult now for the NDP to win it, at least over the next few election cycles, but then what ridings do the NDP win to get to 170?

I admit I haven't looked riding by riding, but my guess is by the time you've listed 130 ridings or so, you're looking at ridings that include Battlefords-Lloydminster. 
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« Reply #639 on: December 18, 2017, 02:02:53 pm »

Battlefords--Lloydminster isn't even an area the NDP needs to win provincial government in Saskatchewan.

An NDP majority would basically be the 2011 map expanded to include smaller urban areas in Ontario, winning rural seats in Atlantic Canada, urban areas on the Prairies, winning most of Edmonton, and winning in traditional seats in rural BC and inner-suburban BC. Battlefords-Lloydminster is a safe Conservative seat, and is thus not attainable.
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« Reply #640 on: December 18, 2017, 06:12:01 pm »

Thomas Mulcair will resign in June 2018.
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« Reply #641 on: December 18, 2017, 07:51:19 pm »

Battlefords--Lloydminster isn't even an area the NDP needs to win provincial government in Saskatchewan.

While this is mathematically possible, I regard it as very difficult.  The NDP could get a narrow provincial majority government by winning the 25 seats in Saskatoon/Regina, the 2 Northern seats, and the 4 seats in Prince Albert/Moose Jaw  for a total of 31 of the 61 ridings.

We all know the cliche about pulling the inside straight.

When the NDP last won a majority government in Saskatchewan in 2003 winning 30 of 58 seats, they lost a handful of seats in Saskatoon/Regina.

The best bets in case of losses in these 31 are the three small city seats of Yorkton, The Battlefords and (less likely) Swift Current along with (historically) a handful of rural northern ridings.  In 2003, the NDP's Maynard Sonntag held Meadow Lake while Lon Borgerson gained from the Sask Party the neighboring riding (I think it's neighboring anyway) of Saskatchewan Rivers.
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« Reply #642 on: December 19, 2017, 08:40:43 am »

Lloydminster is one of the most conservative parts of Saskatchewan, the Sask Party almost broke 90% there in the last provincial election. Aside from the Battlefords and some reserves, there arenít very many Sask NDP friendly places either. However, youíll probably see a number of federal Conservatives defecting to the provincial NDP in the next elections which could make some rural seats competitive. Saskatchewan Rivers, Meadow Lake, and Batoche are all seats that could flip to the NDP, given that their rural voters are more elastic than in other parts of the country.

Either way, when thereís a huge swing, seats that werenít competitive become competitive, like Toronto-Danforth, St. John East, basically every single seat in Alberta in the last provincial election, etc. Just looking at the numbers from when the NDP got drubbed by 30 points, and deducing thatís itís impossible for them to win because there werenít enough competitive seats back then isnít something that makes a lot of sense. Some polls showed the NDP and Sask Party tied or very close in rural Saskatchewan, so the old maps and results might not be the best predictor, given they show the results from when  the NDP got crushed by 50 points in that region.
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« Reply #643 on: December 19, 2017, 11:21:21 am »

Lloydminster swung heavily to the SP in the last election (resources?) as well as that region of Saskatchewan in general. As an urban area though, The Battlefords is winnable, and is probably a riding they will have to win to form government. I was thinking more of the rural area around it when I made my last post. 
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« Reply #644 on: December 19, 2017, 02:31:30 pm »

Assuming there's no early election, there will be several provincial by-elections in Saskatchewan. Swift Current, Kindersley, and Melfort. Rumours are swirling that Don McMorris (the former disgraced Deputy Premier who was caught drinking and driving) will retire soon too, and that Alanna Koch would run in his seat if she won the leadership, seeing as she lives in his constituency (Indian Head-Milestone).

Lloydminster is weird, and I'm still not convinced the result wasn't a tabulating error or something. A large reserve poll that voted 419-14 for the NDP in 2011 disappeared in the 2016 general election, which explains the huge shift (besides the Alberta NDP, but the mystery of the disappearing reserve is far more interesting). Maybe they didn't have access to a polling place on the reserve or something, but I found it really weird.
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« Reply #645 on: December 19, 2017, 03:22:24 pm »

Well, taking a look at election-atlas.ca, it appears the poll flipped to the Liberals (!?) and saw a dramatic decrease in turnout. Maybe they removed an on-reserve polling station? Terrible if true.

But, there was a huge swing to the SP in that whole part of the province:

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« Reply #646 on: December 19, 2017, 11:45:53 pm »

It could also depend on who the NDP was running last time, what kind of campaign, etc.

Speaking of all that, another dilemma facing the Sask NDP is the lack of a "split in the right": presently, it's the most "binary" province, with Lib and Green totally fringe-marginal or verging on it...
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« Reply #647 on: December 20, 2017, 08:32:01 am »

It could also depend on who the NDP was running last time, what kind of campaign, etc.

Speaking of all that, another dilemma facing the Sask NDP is the lack of a "split in the right": presently, it's the most "binary" province, with Lib and Green totally fringe-marginal or verging on it...

Why is Saskatchewan as a 'binary' province necessarily a problem for the Saskatchewan NDP?

I realize it's been a problem for the B.C NDP (made worse by the emergence of the B.C Green Party) but, I've written about that before.  The problem here is that the B.C NDP has been frequently dominated by the more extreme elements of the party membership (the more militant public sector unions, the hardline social activists) and, due to party membership rules, these extreme members can't effectively be counterbalanced by those who support the Federal Liberals.

In Saskatchewan, the federal Liberal Party is much weaker and the NDP has a history of pragmatism and moderation.  (Roy Romanow is sometimes referred to as the best Liberal premier in Saskatchewan history. I'm sure before Romanow, Allen Blakeney was referred to in the same way.)  I'm not sure any reason why federal Liberal voters could not swing between the Sask Party and the provincial NDP.
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« Reply #648 on: December 20, 2017, 10:00:21 am »

In the past, the NDP has often times been helped by a split on the right between the PCs (later SP) and the Liberals.  This was definitely true the last time the NDP won in 1999 (of course, the Liberals ended up helping the NDP minority government, so maybe they weren't all that right wing at the time).

Let's look at some recent NDP wins:
1999: NDP vote: 39%; SP+Lib: 60% (the SP alone won a plurality of the popular vote)
1995: NDP vote: 47%; PC+Lib: 53%
1991: NDP: 51%; PC+Lib: 49%

1978: NDP: 48%; Lib+PC: 52%
1975: NDP: 40%; Lib+PC: 59%
1971: NDP: 55%; Lib+PC: 45%

The NDP has more often than not benefited from a split on their right. But interestingly, the last two times they've won big have been when ending the reign of the previous governing party (also true for the CCF in 1944). Certainly a good omen for the next election.
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« Reply #649 on: December 20, 2017, 10:16:29 am »

It could also depend on who the NDP was running last time, what kind of campaign, etc.

Speaking of all that, another dilemma facing the Sask NDP is the lack of a "split in the right": presently, it's the most "binary" province, with Lib and Green totally fringe-marginal or verging on it...

Also keep in mind that in Western Canada in general, it isnít that rare to see Conservative voters defect to the NDP and vice versa, especially in provincial election. Right now the NDP is taking the lionís share of federal Liberal voters in the province, which is how theyíre staying competitive.

The biggest problem for the NDP might be that is their vote share might be too inefficient, especially if theyíre winning Regina and Saskatoon by 20-30 points as indicated by polling.

Also, thereís still chatter about a possible early election. Itíd be pretty crazy if the interim leader had to lead the party in a general election and ended up winning. Has something like that ever happened before? Especially if a leadership election was about to take place.
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