Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)
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  Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)  (Read 65336 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #75 on: February 25, 2017, 09:46:26 AM »
« edited: February 25, 2017, 09:49:29 AM by RogueBeaver »

Gouin: PQ is assuming GND will be the QS candidate even though that still hasn't been confirmed. PSPP wanted to run there but Lisée said no because GND beat all candidates, including ex-MNA Nicolas Girard, in internals. PSPP's been riding shopping and I assume Lisée will find him something by election time.
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Poirot
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« Reply #76 on: February 25, 2017, 10:10:23 PM »

Conservative leadership candidate Rick Peterson is interested in running in Saint-Laurent. Why???

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201702/25/01-5073277-le-conservateur-rick-peterson-veut-ravir-la-circonscription-de-saint-laurent.php
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #77 on: February 25, 2017, 10:17:34 PM »


A game-changer!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #78 on: February 27, 2017, 07:40:44 AM »

Markham-Thornhill: Fix is in for PMO staffer Mary Ng.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #79 on: February 27, 2017, 04:33:53 PM »

These five by-elections look like they'll be the most boring ever. 
When Markham-Thornhill, which had a Liberal majority of 10,000 in 2015, is considered the closest to "toss-up," I think you're right.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #80 on: February 27, 2017, 04:57:29 PM »

These five by-elections look like they'll be the most boring ever. 
When Markham-Thornhill, which had a Liberal majority of 10,000 in 2015, is considered the closest to "toss-up," I think you're right.

That was the 2015 election though; If you look at how the 2011 election was transposed on to the new Riding you got:
LPC - 37%
CPC - 36%
NPD - 23%

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MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #81 on: February 27, 2017, 05:36:21 PM »

These five by-elections look like they'll be the most boring ever. 
When Markham-Thornhill, which had a Liberal majority of 10,000 in 2015, is considered the closest to "toss-up," I think you're right.

That was the 2015 election though; If you look at how the 2011 election was transposed on to the new Riding you got:
LPC - 37%
CPC - 36%
NPD - 23%


We really don't think we're going to have a redux of the Ignatieff Catastrophe do we?
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adma
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« Reply #82 on: February 27, 2017, 11:09:32 PM »

The notional 2011 result was the byproduct of added west-of-the-404 polls from Peter Kent's Thornhill superstronghold (which were still something of a Lib-Con draw in 2015), and the Tamil-leaning eastern polls getting caught up in Laytonmania.  With the NDP all but disintegrating as a factor by 2015, the bigger question might be if the "ChinaCon" swing evident in CPC winning Markham-Unionville (or the provincial PCs winning Scarborough-RR) might migrate into the less uppity environs of Milliken, Armadale, et al.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #83 on: February 28, 2017, 07:07:57 AM »

The notional 2011 result was the byproduct of added west-of-the-404 polls from Peter Kent's Thornhill superstronghold (which were still something of a Lib-Con draw in 2015), and the Tamil-leaning eastern polls getting caught up in Laytonmania.  With the NDP all but disintegrating as a factor by 2015, the bigger question might be if the "ChinaCon" swing evident in CPC winning Markham-Unionville (or the provincial PCs winning Scarborough-RR) might migrate into the less uppity environs of Milliken, Armadale, et al.

The NDP is likely to poll its traditional pre-2011 numbers, 10% or so likely, as it is nationally about 16% or so; But the Conservatives are polling better then the 2015 numbers and without McCallum and already internal issues with the Liberal nomination, I just don't think this is a safe LPC hold.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #84 on: February 28, 2017, 11:46:29 AM »

Saint-Laurent: DeSousa red-lit, James will be their next MP.
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Poirot
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« Reply #85 on: March 01, 2017, 11:04:22 PM »

You beat me to it! here are the Decided as well, even worse for the SP

So not so close in Saskatoon-Meewasin...
All Voters (Decided+Leaning)
NDP - 46% (59%)
SP - 23% (30%)
SL - 4% (7%)
Green - 4% (4%)
undecided - 23%

Mainstreet had another poll for Saskatoon-Meewasin and shows a dead heat

February 23  All Voters (Decided+Leanoing)

NDP 37% (44%)
SP 39% (45%)
Sl  3% (5%)
Green 5% (6%)
Undecided 15%

margin of error 4.7%
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dead-heat-meewasin/
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Jeppe
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« Reply #86 on: March 02, 2017, 10:02:26 AM »

Gonna predict a 5% victory for the Sask NDP in Saskatoon Meewasin. The weird polling shifts aside, the fundamentals of the race are pointing towards an NDP win.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #87 on: March 02, 2017, 05:39:32 PM »

Here's a map for y'all:



I think the Sask Party may just eek out a victory. We'll see. It's all about turnout as the riding is heavily polarized between north & south.
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #88 on: March 02, 2017, 09:22:03 PM »

Results 10/50 polls results

NDP - 52%
SKP - 40%

Would be nice knowing where those polls were though..
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #89 on: March 02, 2017, 09:34:20 PM »

The Sask NDP is most likely going to win by double digits in Saskatoon Meewasin.

22/50; 55% to 38%.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #90 on: March 02, 2017, 09:40:12 PM »

Let's not call this yet, we don't know where the polls are coming from.
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adma
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« Reply #91 on: March 02, 2017, 10:06:27 PM »

40 out of 50 polls: 52-40 NDP.
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #92 on: March 02, 2017, 10:15:33 PM »

Calling it for the Meilli. There are only about 800 or 900 more votes coming in, and he has a 400+ vote lead stockpiled.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #93 on: March 02, 2017, 10:32:13 PM »

yeah, it's over. Huzzah!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #94 on: March 02, 2017, 11:06:32 PM »

Markham-Thornhill: another candidate withdraws.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #95 on: March 03, 2017, 07:31:32 AM »

Saskatoon-Meewasin Final:

Meili, NDP - 54.2 % (2,666 votes),
Penner, SP - 39.9% (1,962 votes)
Lamoureaux, Liberal - 3.7%(180 votes)
Prokopchuk, PC - 1.3 % (62 votes)
Setyo, Green - 1.1% (53 votes)

voter turnout is at 40.62 per cent (4,923 of 12,121 registered voters)

So that last poll out, was odd/bad polling? and might have scared the crud out of the NDP to get the vote out.
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adma
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« Reply #96 on: March 03, 2017, 08:28:27 AM »

I wonder what the result would have been like had Meili not been the NDP candidate...
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #97 on: March 03, 2017, 08:46:42 AM »

I think a bit tighter, but still an NDP win. I think Penner was a very strong candidate and that without him, it would've been even more of a blowout.
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #98 on: March 03, 2017, 08:48:28 AM »

Saskatoon-Meewasin Final:

Meili, NDP - 54.2 % (2,666 votes),
Penner, SP - 39.9% (1,962 votes)
Lamoureaux, Liberal - 3.7%(180 votes)
Prokopchuk, PC - 1.3 % (62 votes)
Setyo, Green - 1.1% (53 votes)

voter turnout is at 40.62 per cent (4,923 of 12,121 registered voters)

So that last poll out, was odd/bad polling? and might have scared the crud out of the NDP to get the vote out.

The Sask NDP pulled out all the stops to win the by-election, and a strong GOTV operation was included. I think most, if not the entire Sask NDP caucus was pulling the vote, alongside a bunch of volunteers from across the province.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #99 on: March 03, 2017, 09:30:01 AM »

Swings:
NDP +11.2%
SP: -10.6%
Lib: -0.8%
Grn: -1.1%

Two party average swing: 10.9% SP to NDP
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