Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Hatman 🍁]

Not surprising, as the CAQ and the PLQ are essentially the same ideologically these days.

[Poirot]

The Louis-Hébert campaign started and the two party with a shot at winning had to change candidates.
https://looniepolitics.com/scandal-plagues-start-of-quebec-by-election/
(Contrary to what Bélanger wrote the riding does not include Sillery and Laval University, maybe he was thinking of the federal riding)

The CAQ candidate is young, pregnant and good at communications. She works for the Coroner's office, did media relations when there were tragedies. She claims some ooponents have raised the maternity leave against her (taking maternity leave in a couple monts for a 1 year mandate) Uses Integrety on her signs.

The Liberal candidate is said to be the 8th choice of the party. Good when meeting people but not in media. Had a facebook posting supporting covered face at citizenship ceremony. Sam Hamad was not at her nomination and I don't think publicly supported his 10 year riding assistant. After the fiasco of the PLQ candidate withdrawing, Couillard changed chief of staff, was blamed for this and caucus doesn't seem to like him.

PLQ has face problems. Local issues are improvong traffic and a paint plant that odor pollute and got many environment infracyions. PLQ pledge to extend a highway but a decade old government report states it's not a good idea. Just over the weekend Couillard promised the paint plant would move. Nathalie Normandeau, a former PLQ vice premier (facing corruption charges) and now radio host told people to vote CAQ. Among her criticisms she doesn't like the systemic racism commission.

http://www.journaldequebec.com/2017/09/28/normandeau-invite-les-quebecois-a-voter-pour-la-caq

[Krago]

I take a personal interest in the goings-on of Louis-Hebert, since the man himself was my great (x12th?) grandfather.  Of course, he is also related to half of the province.

Given the lack of enthusiasm for the PLQ, does the NDPQ stand a chance of reaching double digits?  Or will they get a more fringe-y 1-2%?

[Poirot]

I take a personal interest in the goings-on of Louis-Hebert, since the man himself was my great (x12th?) grandfather.  Of course, he is also related to half of the province.

Given the lack of enthusiasm for the PLQ, does the NDPQ stand a chance of reaching double digits?  Or will they get a more fringe-y 1-2%?

I don't know if I have L-Hébert in my ancestry.

NDPQ probably fringe. Probably no budget and maybe there is a lack of exposure. Don't know locally but national media concentrate on 3 or 4 candidates. There are 10 candidates running, the leader of Parti Vert is running, there is a Option Nationale candidate, an Independent, a Equioe Autonomiste.

In some previous by-elections PLQ won but did not have great scores like in Saint-Henri or Verdun but other parties split the rest of vote. Will be interesting to see tonight if CAQ consolidates the change vote or it splits among numerous parties. It seems PQ would like to get the same score as the general election (18%). QS will probably increase its share.

[Poirot]

Results are starting to come in:

After 4 polling station CAQ is at 50%

https://resultats.dgeq.org/resultatsPreliminaires.en.html

Preliminary voter turnout 53%

[Poirot]

Still early but CAQ is over 50% and PLQ is running behind the PQ (who is near its vote share of last election). Sometimes there are a lot of Liberal votes in the advance polling stations but they are very far behind. Looks like a good chunk of PLQ vote of last election goes to CAQ and the other parties not much movement.

[mileslunn]

Unless all the polls reporting are along the edges of the riding in the North and West, I cannot see how this can be anything other than a CAQ win at this point.  Their lead is over 30 points and we already have 10% of the polls in.  Might tighten up, but I think the CAQ should win this.  2nd place will be interesting since if the PQ come in second that will be a huge embarrassment to the PLQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Calling it for CAQ.

[Poirot]

Disastrous for the PLQ so far losing, getting less than half of vote share of last election while CAQ doubles its share. Maybe PLQ will distance itself from PQ when other polls come in. Being close to third is a big slap in the face.

[mileslunn]

Looks like a yuge win for the CAQ.  While by-elections are different than general elections certainly this is a sign they are the main opposition to the PLQ.  QS fared rather poorly compared to polls although to be fair I suspect they are in single digits in most ridings outside of Montreal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

[mileslunn]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

 Surprised the Conservatives though did better than the NDP as the CAQ is largely a conservative party philosophically.  It seems kind of like the PCs in Saskatchewan as opposed to the Saskatchewan Party.  By contrast while the PQ and QS are both social democratic parties, the NDP is a federalist social democratic one whereas those two are both separatists.  What is though lacking although not sure there is a market for it is a right wing separatist party.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

They missed their opening. The party has been sitting inactive for years while the NDP has slid in the polls.

[Tintrlvr]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

 Surprised the Conservatives though did better than the NDP as the CAQ is largely a conservative party philosophically.  It seems kind of like the PCs in Saskatchewan as opposed to the Saskatchewan Party.  By contrast while the PQ and QS are both social democratic parties, the NDP is a federalist social democratic one whereas those two are both separatists.  What is though lacking although not sure there is a market for it is a right wing separatist party.

The PQ is both a right-wing and a left-wing separatist party.

Anyway, this is not the riding in which to find left-wing federalists.

(On a related note, it is really confusing that the federal and provincial Louis-Hebert ridings are in totally different parts of Quebec. If you're going to name ridings after people, at least try to make them be in the same place!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

 Surprised the Conservatives though did better than the NDP as the CAQ is largely a conservative party philosophically.  It seems kind of like the PCs in Saskatchewan as opposed to the Saskatchewan Party.  By contrast while the PQ and QS are both social democratic parties, the NDP is a federalist social democratic one whereas those two are both separatists.  What is though lacking although not sure there is a market for it is a right wing separatist party.

The PQ is both a right-wing and a left-wing separatist party.

Anyway, this is not the riding in which to find left-wing federalists.

(On a related note, it is really confusing that the federal and provincial Louis-Hebert ridings are in totally different parts of Quebec. If you're going to name ridings after people, at least try to make them be in the same place!)

They are both in Quebec City, and overlap.. though I loathe ridings named for people. Maybe you're thinking of Papineau?

[DL]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

[Tintrlvr]

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

 Surprised the Conservatives though did better than the NDP as the CAQ is largely a conservative party philosophically.  It seems kind of like the PCs in Saskatchewan as opposed to the Saskatchewan Party.  By contrast while the PQ and QS are both social democratic parties, the NDP is a federalist social democratic one whereas those two are both separatists.  What is though lacking although not sure there is a market for it is a right wing separatist party.

The PQ is both a right-wing and a left-wing separatist party.

Anyway, this is not the riding in which to find left-wing federalists.

(On a related note, it is really confusing that the federal and provincial Louis-Hebert ridings are in totally different parts of Quebec. If you're going to name ridings after people, at least try to make them be in the same place!)

They are both in Quebec City, and overlap.. though I loathe ridings named for people. Maybe you're thinking of Papineau?

For some reason I thought the federal one was near Montreal. Carry on

[MaxQue]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

[MaxQue]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

Jean-Talon also includes very wealthy Sillery.

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

Jean-Talon also includes very wealthy Sillery.

That must be the difference, because Louis-Hebert didn't include Sillery back then (still doesn't, of course).

[RogueBeaver]

Outremont: Mulcair sounds likely to quit by Christmas or even earlier.

[DL]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

I'm not so sure about that. Jean Talon provincial riding has existed since 1970 and Louis-Hebert has always been largely the suburb of Ste. Foy

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

I'm not so sure about that. Jean Talon provincial riding has existed since 1970 and Louis-Hebert has always been largely the suburb of Ste. Foy

Different parts of Ste-Foy. Louis-Hebert of 1976 only shares a small part of territory as today's Louis-Hebert:

[DL]

So the current Jean Talon is more of a successor riding to the Louis Hebert 1976... but my point remains that back in the 70s and 80s that area was a PQ stronghold and these days the PQ is not at all competitive in either Louis Hebert or Jean Talon