Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Hatman 🍁]

Steve Kent (MHA for Mount Pearl North) has resigned. One of the few PC held seats in the province, so should be an easy hold for the Tories.

[136or142]

Vancouver municipal by-elections.  8:30, no results so far.

[mileslunn]

Steve Kent (MHA for Mount Pearl North) has resigned. One of the few PC held seats in the province, so should be an easy hold for the Tories.

True enough and also the Newfoundland Liberals have seen their popularity take a pretty big hit since the last election.  Whether it would be enough to defeat them or not is tough to say, but they've fallen enough much like the Saskatchewan Party that you would expect the PCs to not only hold what they have but pick up any marginal seats too. 

[136or142]

3/53 polling stations reporting.  Hector Bremner leads the city council race with 41% of the vote.

[136or142]

5/53 polling stations reporting.  Hector Bremner leads with 36% of the vote.  Peter Fry in second with 19%

[136or142]

10/53 polls.  Bremner jumps into a big lead with 42% of the vote, Fry in second with 17%.  Vision Vancouver's Diego Cardona at 9.6%

NPA has 5 of 9 school board positions, Green 3 and one Vision Vancouver.

[136or142]

14/53 stations.  8,552 ballots counted.  Bremner 40%, Fry 18%, Jean Swanson in third.  Vision Vancouver candidate now just over 10%.

No change for school board.

[MaxQue]

10/53 polls.  Bremner jumps into a big lead with 42% of the vote, Fry in second with 17%.  Vision Vancouver's Diego Cardona at 9.6%

NPA has 5 of 9 school board positions, Green 3 and one Vision Vancouver.

The orger is quite stable now. NPA, Green, leftovers of COPE, "OneCity" and then Vision

[136or142]

25/53 polling stations reporting now.  19,457 votes out of 442,792 eligible.  Hopefully the advanced poll is large.

Hector Bremner still leads but has dropped to 33% while Pete Fry is up to 20%.  Unlikely Fry can catch up but it could still get interesting.

Vision Vancouver now up to 2 school board positions with the NPA dropping to 4.

[136or142]

32/53 polling stations.  Bremner 33% Fry 20%.  5.49% counted turnout so far.

No change for school board.

[136or142]

40/53 polling stations reporting. 32,084 counted ballots.  Bremner 32%, Pete Fry 20%, Jean Swanson 19%

No change for school board, but tight race for final spot between Vision Vancouver, NPA and One City.

[136or142]

45/53 polling stations reporting. 35,517 counted votes.  8.02% turnout.  (Sad)

Bremner 31%, Fry 20, Swanson 19%

No change for school board.


Sad is putting the turnout mildly. 

[mileslunn]

Definitely not a good night for Vision Vancouver so while still a year away, it does seem Gregor Robertson may face greater headwinds although it still seems more voted left than right but split on the left.  Turnout 8.02% is pathetic.  BTW I voted despite the fact I had to drive in to the city as I am staying on Bowen Island for the next few weeks to do some dogsitting.

[136or142]

50/53 41,838 ballots counted.

Bremner 28.5%, Swanson 20.5% Fry 20%

3 Green, 3 Vision Vancouver, 2 NPA 1 One City on school board.  If that holds up it will be the Vancouver version of the old Italian Parliament.

[136or142]

Definitely not a good night for Vision Vancouver so while still a year away, it does seem Gregor Robertson may face greater headwinds although it still seems more voted left than right but split on the left.  Turnout 8.02% is pathetic.  BTW I voted despite the fact I had to drive in to the city as I am staying on Bowen Island for the next few weeks to do some dogsitting.

My new pet peeve:  there is no need to say 'the fact', or 'the fact that...'  "I voted despite having to drive..."

[Hatman 🍁]

Talk about a massive vote split. NPA candidate wins with 28% of the vote. All the other major candidates are on the left, if you count the Greens as being on the left.

[136or142]

Final results.  48,645 ballots. 10.99% turnout.  (Elections Vancouver had hoped for 20-25%) I'm not sure much can be read into a by-election with such a low turnout.  This is about 1/3 of normal turnout to Vancouver municipal elections.

Hector Bremner, NPA 27.83%
Jean Swanson,  21.36%
Pete Fry, Green,  20.31%
Judy Graves, One City, 13.17%
Diego Cardona, Vision Vancouver, 11.26%

School board elected in order:
1.Janet Fraser, Green
2.Judy Zaichkowsky, Green
3.Esteillita Gonzalez, Green (Greens only ran three candidates)
4.Joy Alexander, Vision Vancouver
5.Allan Wong, Vision Vancouver
6.Lisa Dominato, NPA
7.Fraser Ballantyne, NPA
8.Carrie Bercic, One City
9.Ken Clement, Vision Vancouver

Janet Fraser, Joy Alexander, Allan Wong and Fraser Ballantyne served on the fired school board.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bad night for both the main parties.

[mileslunn]

What are the predictions here for tomorrow's federal ones?

Mine are:

Sturgeon River-Parkland: That is no brainer, easy Tory win.

Lac Saint Jean: This is the tougher one to predict and any of the four parties could pull off a win, but my prediction is a BQ pick up.  If you check my blog I have a more detailed analysis on what I think each party's chances are.  Tories maybe gaining in English Canada and Liberals declining there, but in Quebec it is the opposite.  Never mind this was a Denis Lebel riding not a Tory one and in fact of the 12 seats they won, this was the only one more than 100km outside Quebec City as it seems Tories are competitive within the 100km radius of Quebec City but largely irrelevant elsewhere in the province.

[DC Al Fine]

Ambrose's seat is going Tory. I'm guessing Liberal pick up in Lebel's spot

[the506]

Not sure where else to put this, but there's also a plebiscite on Monday on creating a new rural municipality west of Fredericton. My gut says it's probably going to fail.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-plebiscite-rural-community-1.4364491

[Poirot]

There are three MRC in the federal riding of Lac-Saint-Jean. Lac Saint-Jean Est (Alma), Maria-Chapdelaine (Dolbeau) and Domaine-du-Roy (Roberval). In the general election Lebel won the last two and Dallaire won Lac Saint-Jean Est.

A recent Ipsos poll in the province has the LPC at 43%, Bloc 20%, NDP 16%, CPC 15%. Biggest movement is LPC up and NDP down.

Rémy Leclerc (CPC) is from Roberval, He was a city councillor and has worked with Lebel for a decade and I think he was also his campaign organizer. Organization is important in a byelection. He is against cannabis legalization. A Segma poll in the nearby city of Saguenay found 70% oppose legalization but the pollster doubts it will be the ballot question and it will be more about having an MP in power. Lerclerc also made "promises" like reinstate tax credit for artistic and physical activity of children, eliminate income tax on parental leave, and make easier transfer of family farm to the next generation.

Marc Maltais is the Bloc canddiate. He started later than the others, confirming he would run around September 25th. He is a regional union eader from Alma. His local union supported the NDP in the last election but supports him now. Will benefit from the support of PQ MNA Alexandre Cloutier.

Gisèle Dallaire for the NDP is also from Alma. Probably can't do as well than the last election with the general trend.

Richard Hébert for the LPC just finished his mandate as Dolbeau mayor. He said his five priorities are stimulate the economy and create good jobs for the middle class in the region, improve quality of life for seniors and quality of health care and home care, support reduce tax rate for middle cass families and give more moneyto families with children, reduce tax rate for small business and ptoect jobs in industries like lumber, see that needs of the region are at the heart of decisons made in parliament.  (some look like last campaign promises)

He has the support of other mayors around his town and some business leaders from Alma. Trudeau camapigned with him last Thursday and Friday. It is the usual charm offensive, visit with his wife and a child to nursing homes, visit restaurants, went to a regional meeting of farmers to say he will defend supply management, met forestry workers and reasured them. So a lot of exposure just a couple days before the vote.  

[RogueBeaver]

Predicting Grits edge out the Bloc.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, I expect the Liberals will win too. Probably won't be that close either.

I suspect the Tories will win Roberval, but most of the Lac-Saint-Jean Ouest (former county & Couillard's riding) will go Liberal, while Lac-Saint-Jean Est will go BQ. How well the BQ does depends on how well they can GOTV in Alma.

[mileslunn]

If the Liberals win Lac Saint Jean it will be a huge morale booster in what has been a tough few weeks.  While Quebec often goes in different directions than English Canada it will show they have the potential to pick up at least 25 seats in Quebec and with a 15 seat majority that would give them a strong cushion for losses elsewhere.  Even though the Liberals are ahead in Quebec, I am still a bit skeptical of them pulling this off as this is one of the least friendly Liberal ridings in the province.  Hasn't voted Liberal federally since 1980 and voted 2/3 in favour of sovereignty in the 95 referendum thus why I give the BQ a slight edge, but admit both the Liberals and BQ stand a better chance of winning this than either the Tories or NDP.

I think for the Tories their big tests are the next round of by-elections.  They will easily hold Battlefords-Lloydminster, but South Surrey-White Rock could be tough as Diane Watts was a very popular mayor of Surrey.  Nonetheless this is your middle class suburban riding and usually whomever wins those forms the government so if the Tories lose it, its probably a sign they are in trouble outside their strongholds.  Mind you they seem to be gaining more in Alberta, Ontario and Atlantic Canada, not so much in BC.  Alberta it doesn't really matter, mostly wasted votes while Ontario you have a very unpopular provincial Liberal government which is probably hurting them, but they will likely lose next June so not an albatross around the Liberals' neck next election.  In Atlantic Canada it is more of a dead cat bounce as the Tories are simply returning to their traditional floor; in 2015 they performed well below their previous worst showings so back towards their other bad showings minus 2015.  Scarborough-Agincourt will be interesting since if the Tories pull of an upset or even come close that could be a sign of possible gains in the GTA suburbs.  This riding has a large Chinese community whom I've heard marijuana legalization is quite unpopular amongst.

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity will be an easy Liberal win, rather it will be shifts.  If the Liberals stay over 70% that shows they are still very strong in Atlantic Canada, but if they fall below 60% could suggest some of their more marginal ones could be in trouble.  For the Tories if they fail to crack the 20% mark, then that means at best they might win a seat or two New Brunswick and another possible shut out.  If they get in the 20s, Tories win back traditional strongholds, but still end up with significantly fewer seats than Liberals while if they cross the 30% mark then that likely means that are once again competitive in Atlantic Canada.  In Battlefords-Lloydminster, I think who comes in second could be interesting as asides from the far North it is the urban ridings that matter.  Strong vote splits likely means they go Tory, but if the progressive vote coalesces around either side, they should dominate the two cities in Saskatchewan.  Unlike elsewhere usually the NDP not the Liberals are the main challenge so will be interesting to see who comes in second there.