Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Jeppe]

I don't think the Liberals will win. I'm not sure about my prediction, but I'm leaning towards the Bloc to pick up the seat.

[MaxQue]

The Bloc won't win. Their base (unionised factory workers) in Alma will be split between the Bloc and the NDP.

[136or142]

The Bloc won't win. Their base (unionised factory workers) in Alma will be split between the Bloc and the NDP.

I need to go to bed for awhile. I'd like to know why these by-elections couldn't have been timed to fit into my schedule. 

[mileslunn]

The Bloc won't win. Their base (unionised factory workers) in Alma will be split between the Bloc and the NDP.

I think the NDP will do worse than expected.  This is not an area where they have traditional strength and this is an area with a lot of old stock pure laine types so I think unfortunately for them Singh might be a liability.  That doesn't mean he will be everywhere in Quebec, I think on the Island of Montreal and the Gatineau area he could do quite well where people tend to be more open to those who are different.

[mileslunn]

First poll in Sturgeon River-Parkland and Conservatives have yuge lead.  87.5% Conservative, 12.5% Liberal and 0% NDP.  Off course only 24 votes and probably a rural poll where you would expect those type of numbers.  I suspect in Spruce Grove and Stony Plain the Tories will win handidly, but not by those type of massive margins.

[mileslunn]

BQ starting with a large lead after one poll in Lac Saint Jean.  Liberals in a distant second, NDP holding up better than I thought so far at 15% while Tories have fallen to fourth place.  But again it's one poll so don't read too much into it.

[mileslunn]

Okay, its only five polls in, but I think it is safe to call Sturgeon River-Parkland for the Tories.  Not that this was ever in any doubt anyways.

[mileslunn]

Things are starting to tighten in Lac Saint Jean, but at this point it is fair to say the Conservatives have lost it, the question is whether the BQ who are narrowly ahead pick it up or the Liberals who are closing the gap.  In Sturgeon River-Parkland, the Tories are flirting with the 80% mark and if you add in the Christian Heritage Party who is even further to the right it wouldn't surprise me if over 80% vote for parties on the right.

[Jeppe]

It'll be interesting to see if the NDP can come ahead of the Liberals in Sturgeon River-Parkland. It would be a consolation prize after a devastating loss in Quebec, but a consolation prize nonetheless, better than walking away completely empty handed.

[RogueBeaver]

CBC calls Sturgeon River-Parkland for the Tories.

[mileslunn]

It'll be interesting to see if the NDP can come ahead of the Liberals in Sturgeon River-Parkland. It would be a consolation prize after a devastating loss in Quebec, but a consolation prize nonetheless, better than walking away completely empty handed.

Probably not as in Alberta outside the cities, the provincial NDP is pretty loathed so I think the unpopularity of the provincial NDP will hurt them.  Not saying Notley is toast, but she has her work cut out and I doubt they will win many seats outside the cities anyways.  In Calgary most dislike the NDP but a sizeable minority like them whereas in Edmonton a majority approve of Notley, but in rural Alberta and this riding is more rural than urban, the anger is very strong.

[MaxQue]

The Bloc won't win. Their base (unionised factory workers) in Alma will be split between the Bloc and the NDP.

I think the NDP will do worse than expected.  This is not an area where they have traditional strength and this is an area with a lot of old stock pure laine types so I think unfortunately for them Singh might be a liability.  That doesn't mean he will be everywhere in Quebec, I think on the Island of Montreal and the Gatineau area he could do quite well where people tend to be more open to those who are different.

Oh, NDP will do badly, I just thought the NDP/Bloc (their typical voters in Alma is the same person) split would make Bloc unable to get better than 2nd place.

[Jeppe]

I think Bill 62 and a weakened NDP in Quebec is setting the stage for a Bloc comeback. I think the Bloc has this, unless all/most of the polls reporting are from Alma and the area.

[Jeppe]

If the NDP lost 13% of their vote share in all their currently held Quebec seats, only Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Alexandre Boulerice, and Guy Caron would remain in the House (of course, this is before the 13% gets redistributed).

[DL]

I’m actually pleasantly surprised the NDP is making crédible showing with about 16% of the vote. I was afraid they would lose their deposit considering this is not a good area for them. It’s a bigger disaster for the Tories to come in a distant third in a riding they have held for 10 years and it’s also a major fiasco for the Liberals. They were expected to win and they spent MILLIONS. In the riding and had a strong candidate. Rural Quebec ridings have a bit of a history of swinging to the government party since they Expect to get lots of goodies. That is how the Tories won in the first place in 2007

[MaxQue]

If the NDP lost 13% of their vote share in all their currently held Quebec seats, only Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Alexandre Boulerice, and Guy Caron would remain in the House (of course, this is before the 13% gets redistributed).

Through:

1. That part of Quebec is probably one of the worst for Singh.
2. The race was sold in Quebec media as a Lib-Con-Bloc race. I suspect races with NDP incumbents would, at the very least, be described as NDP-something-(something) races.

[DL]

If the NDP lost 13% of their vote share in all their currently held Quebec seats, only Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Alexandre Boulerice, and Guy Caron would remain in the House (of course, this is before the 13% gets redistributed).

the CPC vote is down about 15 points. How many of their 12 Quebec seats would they be left with on a uniform swing like that?

[MaxQue]

I think Bill 62 and a weakened NDP in Quebec is setting the stage for a Bloc comeback. I think the Bloc has this, unless all/most of the polls reporting are from Alma and the area.

Bloc lead is down to 44 votes.

[Boston Bread]

Liberals have taken the lead.

[DL]

Liberal is up slightly

[Poirot]

Maybe the first results were more from the Alma side.

[mileslunn]

If the NDP lost 13% of their vote share in all their currently held Quebec seats, only Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Alexandre Boulerice, and Guy Caron would remain in the House (of course, this is before the 13% gets redistributed).

the CPC vote is down about 15 points. How many of their 12 Quebec seats would they be left with on a uniform swing like that?

Probably most, mind you if you look at a map of their support last election, Lac Saint Jean was the only riding outside the Quebec City region.  I would suspect their numbers if not for Lebel would be similar to Jonquiere-Alma and Chicoutimi which so far they appear to be.  Now a by-election in one of the Quebec City area ones would be a better indicator if they are tanking throughout Quebec or still holding in their island of support.

[mileslunn]

Looking food for the Liberals, but still want to wait but for we get closer.  Even though I predicted a BQ win, I always thought it would be a BQ-Liberal race, Tories in third and NDP in fourth and that seems to be what is transpiring.

[mileslunn]

Liberals pulling further ahead and BQ falling behind while Conservatives are moving up a bit although not nearly enough to win, maybe second if they are really lucky but unlikely.  While not quite ready to call it, if the Liberal lead stays or grows over the next few polls I think we can call it for them.

[adma]

Right now, the Bloc's closer to the Cons than to the Libs.