Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[mileslunn]

At this point, I think it is safe to call Lac Saint Jean for the Liberals.  The odds of the BQ and especially the Conservatives overcoming such gap is pretty slim.

[mileslunn]

Since Denis Lebel won more on a name than party I thought I would compare to neighbouring Jonquiere and Chicoutimi Le Fjord.

The Liberals either won or came close and in both cases got around 30% so they are doing slightly better but one needs to be careful about assuming this means a massive swing, if Lebel wasn't running they probably would have got around that.  Nonetheless it's a big enough swing they would probably still get 60 seats in Quebec which would give them a much stronger cushion and also make it very hard for the Conservatives to beat them in seats.

For the BQ they are doing as expected.

For the Tories, the results on the surface look horrible, but in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord and Jonquiere they only got 16-17% which they are outperforming.  That being said the Conservatives have their work cut out for them in Quebec and they would be lucky just to hold what they currently have forget about picking up new seats in Quebec.  And without Quebec majority is extremely difficult to get (what happened in 2011 will be tough to repeat).  Likewise without the NDP or Bloc Quebecois challenging the Liberals, that makes getting a minority tough as in 2006 when they first came to power the Bloc took most of Quebec since had the Liberals won 40 instead of 13 seats in Quebec, that would have been enough to hang onto power even if results in Rest of Canada were unchanged.  Heck in 2008, if the Liberals got 60 seats instead of 14 it would be 143 Cons to 123 Libs so the ill fated coalition attempt probably would have faced much less backlash and gone through.

For the NDP not a good showing as they averaged close to 30% in the two neighbouring ridings that being said they still got in the teens so are doing better than they were here in 2004, 2006, and 2008 and I think Montreal is probably where their best chances are rather than the regions of Quebec.

[MaxQue]

Since Denis Lebel won more on a name than party I thought I would compare to neighbouring Jonquiere and Chicoutimi Le Fjord.

Both of these are cities, while this is mainly rural.

[mileslunn]

Since Denis Lebel won more on a name than party I thought I would compare to neighbouring Jonquiere and Chicoutimi Le Fjord.

Both of these are cities, while this is mainly rural.

True enough, although Liberals won Saint Maurice-Champlain so while agree they would have done slightly worse probably I think it's fair to say the Tories would have not won this if not for Lebel in 2015.

Interestingly enough it looks like they still might come in second as the gap between the BQ and Tories is closing while Liberals widening.

[mileslunn]

CBC has now called Lac Saint Jean for the Liberals.  While I doubt this will give much of a boost to national numbers, I do think this will be a huge morale booster for the Liberal caucus who have had a tough past few weeks and perhaps once they move beyond the issues they may very well recover.  I think many will feel more confident knowing that they are in good shape to make big gains in Quebec so even if they lose seats in English Canada it will mean they have to lose 30-40 instead of just 15 to lose their majority and lose around 60-70 instead of just 43 to lose outright so a nice cushion for them.  After all in both 1974 and 1980, Pierre Trudeau won fewer seats in English Canada than the PCs but his dominance of Quebec allowed him to win a majority so could we see a return to Liberal sweeps of Quebec thus helping the Liberals re-establish their national dominance?

[DL]

It’s worth noting that this was once a big BQ stronghold that voted overwhelmingly Yes to independence and was Lucien Bouchard’s riding. If the BQ can’t win here where can they win?

[mileslunn]

It’s worth noting that this was once a big BQ stronghold that voted overwhelmingly Yes to independence and was Lucien Bouchard’s riding. If the BQ can’t win here where can they win?

Asides from Louis Plamandon's riding all of their wins were where they got the right breaks.  Pretty much all of them were under 40% so no real stronghold.  Louis Plamandon will probably hold his seat out of personal popularity as long as he is MP, but if he decides not to run in 2019, I could definitely see it flipping.

[MaxQue]

Bloc is now 3rd.

[adma]

And only 4 votes behind the Cons.

[mileslunn]

And only 4 votes behind the Cons.

Conservatives are now 252 votes ahead of BQ, probably down to advanced polls which they always seem to perform better in, probably due more widely used by seniors. Nonetheless Liberal win, NDP in fourth question is who comes in second.

[mileslunn]

I also think this might explain Trudeau's strange silence on Bill 62 as it is very popular here so didn't want to risk losing this. I expect he will come out harder against it with this in the rear view mirror.

[136or142]

Conservatives elected another dumbass:

Lloyd has a history of posting controversial views in social media, easily retained the Edmonton riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland with 77 per cent of the vote.

Among other things, Lloyd has referred to women's advocates as "Feminazis" and started a Facebook campaign to create a Canadian chapter of the National Rifle Association.

That said, since this isn't actually an 'Edmonton riding' it's possible the rest of the article is wrong.

[mileslunn]

Conservatives elected another dumbass:

Lloyd has a history of posting controversial views in social media, easily retained the Edmonton riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland with 77 per cent of the vote.

Among other things, Lloyd has referred to women's advocates as "Feminazis" and started a Facebook campaign to create a Canadian chapter of the National Rifle Association.

That said, since this isn't actually an 'Edmonton riding' it's possible the rest of the article is wrong.

Definitely the party will want to have stronger and more moderate candidates going into 2019 or they will provide lots of fodder for the Liberals if they have too many like him.  Every party has its kooky candidates, but the Tories have fair or not a bad reputation of being too right wing and they need to shed this if they ever want to return to power.

As for Edmonton, it is in the Capital region, but not part of the city of Edmonton.  While largely rural it does include several bedroom communities so its kind of like Airdire or Okotoks is to Calgary, Abbotsford to Vancouver, or Bowmanville to Toronto.  Still technically within the Metro area and commuting region but not the actual city.  Certainly the capital region surrounding Edmonton tends to vote much more heavily Conservative than the actual city itself.

[136or142]

Conservatives elected another dumbass:

Lloyd has a history of posting controversial views in social media, easily retained the Edmonton riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland with 77 per cent of the vote.

Among other things, Lloyd has referred to women's advocates as "Feminazis" and started a Facebook campaign to create a Canadian chapter of the National Rifle Association.

That said, since this isn't actually an 'Edmonton riding' it's possible the rest of the article is wrong.

Definitely the party will want to have stronger and more moderate candidates going into 2019 or they will provide lots of fodder for the Liberals if they have too many like him.  Every party has its kooky candidates, but the Tories have fair or not a bad reputation of being too right wing and they need to shed this if they ever want to return to power.

As for Edmonton, it is in the Capital region, but not part of the city of Edmonton.  While largely rural it does include several bedroom communities so its kind of like Airdire or Okotoks is to Calgary, Abbotsford to Vancouver, or Bowmanville to Toronto.  Still technically within the Metro area and commuting region but not the actual city.  Certainly the capital region surrounding Edmonton tends to vote much more heavily Conservative than the actual city itself.

Yes, the Edmonton suburb/exurb of Stony Plain is in the riding, however most of the rest of it is rural. Provincially the NDP handily won the older and larger suburban Edmonton ridings of St Albert and Sherwood Park in 2015.

This new M.P isn't the first extreme right winger who has won for the Conservatives in byelections, as I'd argue both the replacements for Jason Kenney and Stephen Harper are also fringe.

[mileslunn]

Conservatives elected another dumbass:

Lloyd has a history of posting controversial views in social media, easily retained the Edmonton riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland with 77 per cent of the vote.

Among other things, Lloyd has referred to women's advocates as "Feminazis" and started a Facebook campaign to create a Canadian chapter of the National Rifle Association.

That said, since this isn't actually an 'Edmonton riding' it's possible the rest of the article is wrong.

Definitely the party will want to have stronger and more moderate candidates going into 2019 or they will provide lots of fodder for the Liberals if they have too many like him.  Every party has its kooky candidates, but the Tories have fair or not a bad reputation of being too right wing and they need to shed this if they ever want to return to power.

As for Edmonton, it is in the Capital region, but not part of the city of Edmonton.  While largely rural it does include several bedroom communities so its kind of like Airdire or Okotoks is to Calgary, Abbotsford to Vancouver, or Bowmanville to Toronto.  Still technically within the Metro area and commuting region but not the actual city.  Certainly the capital region surrounding Edmonton tends to vote much more heavily Conservative than the actual city itself.

Yes, the Edmonton suburb/exurb of Stony Plain is in the riding, however most of the rest of it is rural. Provincially the NDP handily won the older and larger suburban Edmonton ridings of St Albert and Sherwood Park in 2015.

This new M.P isn't the first extreme right winger who has won for the Conservatives in byelections, as I'd argue both the replacements for Jason Kenney and Stephen Harper are also fringe.

Actually we've barely heard from either of those two so I suspect if as extreme as he seem he will be confined to the backbenches.  Interestingly enough under Harper not all the by-election ones were extreme.  In his last term you had Erin O'Toole who is fairly moderate, Pat Perkins former mayor of Whitby, John Barlow who was the PC candidate in 2012 who lost to Danielle Smith, and Larry Maguire who was the PC candidate in the 1993 election.  Now you did have Joan Crockett in Calgary Centre who was a Wildroser and rather out there but she got turfed in 2015 mind you I doubt either of those three ridings will flip in 2019 considering their histories.  It does some Harper had a much stronger iron grip and did a better job of controlling the crazies.  Although I've found the better the Tories do the more moderate their caucus is as usually their urban MPs tend to be more moderate whereas the most extreme ones often come from the rural Prairies and to a lesser extent in rural Ontario and BC Interior/Fraser Valley, otherwise their strongholds.

[adma]

And re byelection extremists, we can't forget the provincial case of Sam Oosterhoff in Ontario.

[mileslunn]

And re byelection extremists, we can't forget the provincial case of Sam Oosterhoff in Ontario.

True enough, funny Brown has done a reasonably good job on forcing his caucus to vote moderately whether it be on the bubble law, the provincial version of M-103, condemning C-62 in Quebec.  Wonder how him and a few others like Rick Nichols and Randy Hillier are able to manage or has he read them the riot act.  Mind you it was funny when Harper brought in the motion to declare Quebec a nation within a united Canada watching many ex Reformers who long enjoyed bashing Quebec voting for it.

[mileslunn]

I tried doing a uniform swing on the by-elections using Sturgeon River-Parkland for English Canada results and Lac Saint Jean for Quebec and I get the following

Liberals 182 seats (29 in Atlantic Canada, 77 seats in Quebec, 56 seats in Ontario, 6 seats in Sask/Manitoba, 0 seats in Alberta, 11 seats in BC, and all three territories)

Conservatives 136 seats (3 seats in Atlantic Canada, 1 seat in Quebec (Maxime Bernier's), 58 seats in Ontario, 21 seats in Sask/Manitoba, 33 seats in Alberta, 20 seats in BC)

NDP 19 seats (None east of the Ottawa River, 7 seats in Ontario, Niki Ashton in Manitoba, 1 seat in Alberta, and 10 seats in BC)

Green Party 1 seat

Actually if you look at Eric Grenier's numbers not too far off although he doesn't have the Liberals quite as high as in Quebec a uniform swing would put them at 56% of the popular vote which no poll does and the Tories at only 9% which only Nanos shows them that low and NDP at 8% which no poll puts them at.

I do think though the Liberals will be hard pressed to hold all the seats they have in English Canada, so making gains in Quebec could easily cancel out any losses elsewhere and also makes it very likely they will win at least a plurality if not a majority.  The Tories realistically either need to get over 170 seats of have Tories + BQ + Independents over 170 seats as I suspect if the Liberals + NDP + Greens exceeds 170 seats they would gang up to defeat the Tories on a throne speech thus unless things change dramatically Scheer becoming prime-minister in 2019 seems very unlikely.  Mind you people said that about Donald Trump who won and Jeremy Corbyn who almost won so surprises can and do happen.

[adma]

If the NDP under Jagmeet Singh is reduced to 19 seats, that'll be one heck of a bomb.

[mileslunn]

If the NDP under Jagmeet Singh is reduced to 19 seats, that'll be one heck of a bomb.

True, although looking at the history of the party, 30 seats seems to the average and asides from 2011, the 44 seats they got in 2015 is their second best showing beating Ed Broadbent's 1988 record of 43 seats.  I think a lot in the NDP still fantasize about forming government when in reality much of their contributions has come from holding the balance of power in Liberal minority governments.  Universal health care and pensions were all things that came under a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power so realistically the best for them regardless of seats is the Liberals get reduced to a minority and they hold the balance of power.  Also even a Tory minority provided the Liberals + NDP + Greens exceeds 170 seats could be good for them as I suspect those three parties would work together to keep the Tories out and prop up the Liberals.

[adma]

If the NDP under Jagmeet Singh is reduced to 19 seats, that'll be one heck of a bomb.

True, although looking at the history of the party, 30 seats seems to the average and asides from 2011, the 44 seats they got in 2015 is their second best showing beating Ed Broadbent's 1988 record of 43 seats. 

But still; that's a fall *back*. A *significant* fall back; over half its seats lost and reverting to Layton '04 square one.  And I highly doubt the party was allowing for that kind of result in choosing Singh as leader--if they were, they'd have chosen a duffer like Howard Hampton succeeding Bob Rae in Ontario.  Or for that matter, like Ed Broadbent *seemed* to be in 1975 (or even Alexa succeeding Audrey in 1995).

It's not about historical NDP "averages" here.  It's about what they're banking/gambling on with their present chosen leader.

[DL]

If you did a "uniform swing" based on the Outremont byelection of 2007 the NDP would have won a majority government in 2008 so what's the point of this exercise?

[mileslunn]

If you did a "uniform swing" based on the Outremont byelection of 2007 the NDP would have won a majority government in 2008 so what's the point of this exercise?

True enough, but still interesting also I usually try to take the average of by-elections than one on its own.  Perhaps the next round which will be four to five will be a better.

[toaster]

If the NDP under Jagmeet Singh is reduced to 19 seats, that'll be one heck of a bomb.

I'm not sure if this is intentional or not, but let's refrain from using the word bomb to describe Singh's political trajectory.  There are many places, even in Canada, that equate brown with terrorist, and this kind of language doesn't help.

[adma]

If the NDP under Jagmeet Singh is reduced to 19 seats, that'll be one heck of a bomb.

I'm not sure if this is intentional or not, but let's refrain from using the word bomb to describe Singh's political trajectory.  There are many places, even in Canada, that equate brown with terrorist, and this kind of language doesn't help.

I definitely meant "bomb" in the Heaven's Gate or Ishtar sense.  (the movies, that is)