Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)
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  Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)  (Read 65343 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #550 on: November 14, 2017, 06:19:20 PM »

Also ask Theresa May.

If there's an election next year, the NDP will win.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #551 on: November 14, 2017, 06:48:26 PM »

Also ask Theresa May.

If there's an election next year, the NDP will win.

Yeah, it’d be interesting to see what happens if the interim leader has to lead the party into the general election. Would Nicole Sarauer, the interim, become Premier? Or would the leadership race resume? I assume the interim who led the party to a general election win would just stay on permanently as Premier, but who knows.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #552 on: November 16, 2017, 01:38:10 PM »

Calgary-Lougheed by-election set for December 14.
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the506
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« Reply #553 on: November 18, 2017, 11:47:23 AM »

The Charlottetown-Parkdale by-election looks surprisingly compelling.

NDP leader Mike Redmond is running, the Liberal and PC candidates are both Charlottetown city councillors, and the Green candidate has enough of a following herself. This is a real 4-way race.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-district11-charlottetown-parkdale-byelection-1.4385695
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the506
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« Reply #554 on: November 18, 2017, 11:51:09 AM »

Also, surprised this hasn't been mentioned here yet, but Alberta Liberal leader David Khan is running in Calgary-Lougheed.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #555 on: November 19, 2017, 03:20:15 PM »

Grits sound confident about Surrey.
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DL
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« Reply #556 on: November 19, 2017, 04:25:52 PM »

What will it mean for Scheer’s leadership if after losing Lac St. Jean to the Liberals he proceeds to lose Durrey-White Rock too? Opposition are supposed to win seats from the government in byelections not lose them. If Scheer loses that Surrey s’est where exactly does he expect to ever win? If the Tories lose a very WASPy, high income exurban seat in Surrey its a very very bad omen for him
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #557 on: November 19, 2017, 04:49:39 PM »

What will it mean for Scheer’s leadership if after losing Lac St. Jean to the Liberals he proceeds to lose Durrey-White Rock too? Opposition are supposed to win seats from the government in byelections not lose them. If Scheer loses that Surrey s’est where exactly does he expect to ever win? If the Tories lose a very WASPy, high income exurban seat in Surrey its a very very bad omen for him
Yeah especially after the whole controversy surrounding tax reform; this would be the type of riding you would expect decent opposition to many of Trudeau's tax proposals.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #558 on: November 19, 2017, 06:31:09 PM »

I'd say that we only won it because of Watts and no one expects us to win in 2019 anyway.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #559 on: November 19, 2017, 08:04:48 PM »

I'd say that we only won it because of Watts.

Maybe, but it's not exactly a Liberal riding. It hasn't gone Liberal since 1968.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #560 on: November 19, 2017, 09:38:43 PM »

The Grits don’t even have to win the seat to win the narrative; all they have to do is come close.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #561 on: November 19, 2017, 10:32:38 PM »

The Grits don’t even have to win the seat to win the narrative; all they have to do is come close.
They came within three  points of taking it in 2015; so coming close again would probably indicate not much has changed in the general mood of the electorate.
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DL
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« Reply #562 on: November 20, 2017, 12:47:03 AM »

I'd say that we only won it because of Watts.

Maybe, but it's not exactly a Liberal riding. It hasn't gone Liberal since 1968.

It didn’t even go Liberal in 1968. In ‘68 all of Surrey was one riding and it went NDP that year. So Surrey-White Rock has actually NEVER ever elected a Liberal
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #563 on: November 20, 2017, 02:48:25 AM »

Yep. Back in 1968 Surrey was one single riding. Moreover, White Rock, which was a previous municipal ward within Surrey had voted, via referendum, to separate from Surrey 11 years earlier in 1957.

The 1968 fed results for fed Surrey riding was as follows:

NDP: 44.6%
Liberal: 32.3%
PC: 16.4%
Social Credit: 6.7%

Suspect that the stronger NDP vote was in the more older developed north Surrey area of Whalley back in 1968 while the Liberal/PC/SC vote was stronger in the White Rock/Cloverdale area. BTW, back in 1968, South Surrey was mostly forested with a bit of hay farming. Some residential areas were extant along its eastern border with WR.

White Rock itself was an original summer beach town, from the early 1900's, with rail access to downtown Van City. Even back in 1968 a considerable portion of White Rock remained undeveloped. The only other area of South Surrey that had older summer cottages was Crescent Beach on the other side of the Semiahmoo Peninsula.

I should know. I live here.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #564 on: November 21, 2017, 02:13:34 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2017, 03:28:10 PM by 🍁 Hatman »

I'd say that we only won it because of Watts.

Maybe, but it's not exactly a Liberal riding. It hasn't gone Liberal since 1968.

It didn’t even go Liberal in 1968. In ‘68 all of Surrey was one riding and it went NDP that year. So Surrey-White Rock has actually NEVER ever elected a Liberal

Oops, must've looked up the wrong riding.

ETA: The riding DID vote vote Liberal in its history; the last time was 1949 when it was part of New Westminster riding.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #565 on: November 21, 2017, 02:13:59 PM »

Anyways, here is my profile of Mount Pearl North: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/11/mount-pearl-north-by-election-preview.html
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #566 on: November 21, 2017, 06:52:21 PM »

polls closed.

1/41 polls reporting

Lib: 97 Shocked
PC: 84
NDP: 36
Ind: 2
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #567 on: November 21, 2017, 08:06:06 PM »

The PCs won Mount Pearl North, NDP and Liberals roughly tied for second. Looks consistent with recent polling.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #568 on: November 21, 2017, 08:15:06 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2017, 08:25:04 PM by Game Moderator 1184AZ »

Final Results Mount Pearl North
Jim Lester PC 2064 46.89% (-4.59)
Jim Burton Liberal 1129 25.65% (-16.77%)
Nicole Kieley NDP 1088 24.72%(+18.62%)
Hudson Stratton Independent 121 2.75% 
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MaxQue
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« Reply #569 on: November 21, 2017, 08:17:18 PM »

PC 2064 (46.89%; -4.59)
Lib 1129 (25.65%; -16.77)
NDP 1088 (24.72%; +18.62)
Ind 121 (2.75%)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #570 on: November 21, 2017, 09:24:30 PM »

Even though they finished third, the NDP did very well. Best ever result, I think.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #571 on: November 21, 2017, 10:17:44 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2017, 10:20:37 PM by 🍁 Hatman »

Correction: the NDP got 26% of the vote in 1975 when they Helen Porter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Fogwill_Porter). A good result, considering they didn't win any seats that year.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #572 on: November 22, 2017, 06:37:47 AM »

Final Results Mount Pearl North
Jim Lester PC 2064 46.89% (-4.59)
Jim Burton Liberal 1129 25.65% (-16.77%)
Nicole Kieley NDP 1088 24.72%(+18.62%)
Hudson Stratton Independent 121 2.75% 


Hmm things are looking up for the NDP. That swing would wing them some of the more favourable St. John's seats. I'd like to see a by-election in rural Newfoundland though to see what's going on there.
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the506
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« Reply #573 on: November 27, 2017, 08:17:52 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2017, 08:35:17 PM by the506 »

Green candidate Hannah Bell wins in Charlottetown-Parkdale. 7% lead with all but 1 poll reporting.

EDIT: Final results, with change from 2015:
Hannah Bell (GRN) 35.4% (+16.2)
Bob Doiron (LIB) 28.2% (-15.5)
Melissa Hilton (PC) 27.0% (+0.8 )
Mike Redmond (NDP) 9.3% (-1.6)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #574 on: November 27, 2017, 10:37:44 PM »

Wow. Not good news for the NDP. Sad But I'm glad the Liberals lost the seat. I really hated how they dealt with the electoral reform plebiscite.
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