Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[136or142]

130/199 polls
Hogg 7,743
Findlay 7,085

[136or142]

140/199 polls
Hogg 8,336
Findlay 7,683

[136or142]

150/199 polls
Hogg 9,048
Findlay 8,326

[2952-0-0]

I wouldn't be looking forward to Christmas if I were Andrew Scheer.

[136or142]

160/199 polls
Hogg 9,738
Findlay 8,880

[136or142]

170/199
Hogg 10,563
Findlay 9,536

[emcee0]

CBC news desk just called it for Gordie.

[136or142]

180/199 polls
Hogg 11,129
Findlay 10,188

[136or142]

190/199 polls
Hogg 12,672
Findlay 11,444

[136or142]

Final 199/199 polls
Total votes: 30,259
Gordie Hogg: 14,369
Kerry-Lynne Findlay: 12,752
  
79,359 registered voters.  38.13% turnout.

[mileslunn]

I think two big takeaways are this.

1.  Conservatives have gone up in vote in share in 9 of the 12 while Liberals down in 9 of 12 but Tories going up in the all the wrong places and Liberals in all the right places i.e. in swing ridings while Tories going up in either ones they have no hope at winning or just running the table in already safe ones.

2.  Left is united behind the Liberals with NDP not doing well.  It's very difficult for the Tories to win without a strong NDP to split some votes so it seems Trudeau's strategy of tacking leftward is a smart one as while he might push some Blue Liberals over to the Tories, this will be easily cancelled out by gains from progressive centre-left voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

None of those seats are NDP targets. Don't buy into the pundit narrative that the NDP is dead because it did terrible in a bunch of seats they didn't really bother to campaign in.

One very important thing to realize when it comes to by-elections (and this should be evident to anyone who has followed more than a half dozen over the years) is that typically voters treat them differently than general elections, in that they often become strict two-party races compared to how they would vote in a general election. Whether this is because would-be third party voters are staying home or voting strategically is up for debate, but the evidence is clear. Even though there is no difference between a by-election and a general election in terms of how our voting system works, voters psychological inclinations are different. In a general election, voters will often vote for their preferred party rather than candidate, while in a by-election it is more about the local race.

You needn't go any further than the Vaughan 2010 by-election to see what I mean. The NDP won just 1.7% of the vote; 5 months later they went back up to 12% in the riding, and we all know how well they did across the country in the 2011 election. Their pitiful result was not a harbinger for the future.

The next true test for the NDP will be in Outremont. Conventional wisdom suggests the Liberals will get it back, but tell that to Denis Coderre. The Montreal mayoral race was a good NDP-Liberal proxy race, and Plante won Outrement, so, I wouldn't count the NDP out there quite yet.

[mileslunn]

None of those seats are NDP targets. Don't buy into the pundit narrative that the NDP is dead because it did terrible in a bunch of seats they didn't really bother to campaign in.

One very important thing to realize when it comes to by-elections (and this should be evident to anyone who has followed more than a half dozen over the years) is that typically voters treat them differently than general elections, in that they often become strict two-party races compared to how they would vote in a general election. Whether this is because would-be third party voters are staying home or voting strategically is up for debate, but the evidence is clear. Even though there is no difference between a by-election and a general election in terms of how our voting system works, voters psychological inclinations are different. In a general election, voters will often vote for their preferred party rather than candidate, while in a by-election it is more about the local race.

You needn't go any further than the Vaughan 2010 by-election to see what I mean. The NDP won just 1.7% of the vote; 5 months later they went back up to 12% in the riding, and we all know how well they did across the country in the 2011 election. Their pitiful result was not a harbinger for the future.

The next true test for the NDP will be in Outremont. Conventional wisdom suggests the Liberals will get it back, but tell that to Denis Coderre. The Montreal mayoral race was a good NDP-Liberal proxy race, and Plante won Outrement, so, I wouldn't count the NDP out there quite yet.

Good point and it does seem that way also for the Conservatives.  While under Harper's majority they generally lost ground in all by-elections, while he had a minority they gained in pretty much every riding they came in first or second in, but generally lost votes in ones they came in third in and were non-competitive.  Interesting if we see this provincially although in the case of Calgary-Lougheed with Alberta Liberal leader David Khan running I suspect he will do better than they have in recent years, but still finish well back.  It will be interesting whether it damages the NDP or UCP more there.  Also in BC, it will be interesting to see how the Green Party does in Kelowna West as using your argument they should decline although since the BC Liberals are likely to get over 50% won't be enough for the NDP to pick it up, but perhaps increase their vote share.  The only way the NDP could ever win this is if there was no Greens and the BC Conservatives were really strong and split the right wing vote perfectly evenly which won't happen anytime soon.

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary Lougheed: Since the Liberals are targetting it (they are running their leader after all), they will do better than normal
Kelowna West: Since it is safe Liberal seat, I don't expect any polarization unless the NDP really puts up a fight, which would hurt the Greens. (See the result in Battlefords-Lloymdminster as an example)

[MAINEiac4434]

Not often you see two party leaders going head to head in a riding, even if one of them is DOA.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not often you see two party leaders going head to head in a riding, even if one of them is DOA.

It reeks of desperation from the Liberals.  This kind of thing happens all the time actually, but almost exclusively by fringe parties.

[MAINEiac4434]

Not often you see two party leaders going head to head in a riding, even if one of them is DOA.

It reeks of desperation from the Liberals.  This kind of thing happens all the time actually, but almost exclusively by fringe parties.

Yeah, I meant among the CPC, NDP, LPC and Greens.

[MAINEiac4434]

Actually it's three leaders going up against each other: the Green leader is running in Lougheed, too.

[mileslunn]

Not often you see two party leaders going head to head in a riding, even if one of them is DOA.

It reeks of desperation from the Liberals.  This kind of thing happens all the time actually, but almost exclusively by fringe parties.

Liberals trying to stay relevant although ironically the Alberta Party is not running a candidate.  Essentially the Liberals and Alberta Party are fighting over those who find the UCP too right wing but NDP too left wing.  Otherwise NDP voters with buyer's remorse and Red Tories from the PCs essentially.  I think if the Liberals emerge as the centrist alternative it will hurt NDP more than UCP as many provincial Dippers are federal Liberals (note NDP is struggling to hit 10% in Alberta federally while NDP provincially is around 30% whereas federally Liberals around 20-25% and provincially single digits so most Alberta progressives are NDP provincially, Liberal federally) whereas most PCs don't like Trudeau so being associated with him will make them less likely to vote Liberal.  By contrast if the Alberta Party emerges as the centrist option it should hurt the UCP more than NDP as many Red Tories from the PCs would be willing to vote for them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually it's three leaders going up against each other: the Green leader is running in Lougheed, too.

lol. Well, the Alberta Greens are especially irrelevant due to not having their s**t together as a party. This despite the federal Greens doing well in certain pockets of the province in the past.

[Jeppe]

Actually it's three leaders going up against each other: the Green leader is running in Lougheed, too.

lol. Well, the Alberta Greens are especially irrelevant due to not having their s**t together as a party. This despite the federal Greens doing well in certain pockets of the province in the past.

Didn't they finish second or something in the Calgary-Centre by-election a few years ago?

[Njall]

Actually it's three leaders going up against each other: the Green leader is running in Lougheed, too.

lol. Well, the Alberta Greens are especially irrelevant due to not having their s**t together as a party. This despite the federal Greens doing well in certain pockets of the province in the past.

Didn't they finish second or something in the Calgary-Centre by-election a few years ago?

Third, but with 26% (the first-Place Conservative got 37%)

[warandwar]

They did manage to pick up the coveted endorsement of my family friend Harry, the Historian.

[Njall]

I missed the exact number because Elections Alberta is using vote tabulators and the page updated too quickly, but Kenney got approximately 77% of the vote in the advance polls (which had a notably high turnout).

[mileslunn]

Advanced polls are now in and Kenney is winning massively beyond what we would expect although I suspect probably a higher percentage who voted here were seniors so should tighten a bit once the regular polls come in.  Though 77.54% is not too far off what Harper got here in 2011 mind you the federal Tories usually do better than their provincial counterparts.  Albertans tend to get more right wing the less local the government so most conservative at the federal level, somewhere in between provincially while most progressive at municipal level.



77.54%      UCP
7.64%        Liberals
13.10%       NDP