Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14) (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)  (Read 65357 times)
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« on: February 20, 2017, 02:52:26 PM »


I used to be an acquaintance of Braeden Caley.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2017, 07:35:45 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2017, 07:38:21 PM by Adam T »

By-election day today.  Polls close in just over an hour.

Taking a look at the candidates.  The Conservatives seem to be doubling down on appealing to their hardcore base.  Four of their five:

1.Bob Benzen, Calgary-Heritage,  spearheaded the “Decade of Excellence” project to thank Stephen Harper for his nearly ten years as our prime minister. The “Decade of Excellence” campaign involved placing print advertisements and billboards across Canada with a public thank you to Mr. Harper from Canadians “coast to coast to coast.” At the 2016 Conservative National Convention in Vancouver, the “Decade of Excellence” display was covered by several media outlets and praised by Conservatives from across the country.

2.Stephanie Kusie, Calgary-Midnapore, Executive Director of Common Sense Calgary, a municipal anti tax organization similar to the so-called Canadian Taxpayer's Federation. To be fair to her though, prior to this was a foreign service officer.  I hope she isn't the next Chris Alexander.

3.Ragevan Paranchothy, Markham-Thornhill, recently discovered to have recently tweeted a number of global warming denial tweets (along the lines of "if the world is warming, why are there more polar bears?")

4.Jimmy Yu, Saint Laurent, In a speech following the announcement, Yu highlighted his immigrant roots and panned the Liberals for authorizing safe injection sites.

"The Liberal government already approved three injection sites, and I will never allow [one] to be in my riding."

And while he wouldn't formally endorse any Conservative leadership candidates, leadership hopeful Kellie Leitch was there to show her support.

Of course, Canadians have a right to vote for whoever they want. But, I don't think these are the sorts of candidates that will expand the Conservative Party base.

In contrast, for instance, the NDP is running several candidates not frequently associated with the NDP:

1.Emilie Taman, Ottawa-Vanier a former federal prosecutor (essentially fired for seeking the NDP nomination for the 2015 election, she's now a law professor.  Personally I can see both sides of whether a a public servant in a non partisan position should be allowed to run politically)

2.Khalis Ahmed, Calgary-Heritage, a professional geologist and senior project manager at Lily Petroleum Ltd.  In his speech at the nomination meeting (on the NDP website) he spoke of the need for building the Energy East Pipeline, but in a way that is environmentally sound.

3.Gregory Hines, Markham-Thornhill, the CEO of DOAHL Academy of Dance (Dance on a Higher Level) Dancing School
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2017, 08:50:21 PM »

...with one poll reporting, Cons leading in Markham Thornhill! Shocked
tudeau needs to resign right now

Liberals now lead 124-114.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2017, 08:59:11 PM »

John "The Engineer" Turmel has one vote.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2017, 09:14:53 PM »

It's telling that while both opposition parties are in leadership races, the Conservatives have held their base while the NDP has crashed to fringe party status.

Except in Ottawa-Vanier.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2017, 09:48:18 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2017, 09:51:14 PM by Adam T »

A good showing for the NDP in Ottawa-Vanier, but a bad one in Saint Laurent.
Yeah. Doesn't bode well for the next election for the Dippers in Quebec.

The relatively high profile Green Party candidate in Saint Laurent for the by-election probably took disproportionally from the NDP.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2017, 10:47:11 PM »

Final election night result in Markham-Thornhill

Total votes: 19,215
Marry Ng, Liberal, 9,856, 51.3%
Ragavan Paranchothy, Conservative, 7,501, 39.0%
Gregory Hines, NDP,  671, 3.5%
Dorian Baxter, Progressive Canadian, 566, 2.9%
Caryn Bergmann, Green, 426, 2.2%
Brendan Thomas Reilly, Libertarian, 118, 0.6%   
Above Znoneofthe, Independent, 77, 0.4%

Registered Voters: 69,838
Percentage: 27.51%
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2017, 11:48:15 AM »

Aggregate vote change.  Turnout was about 50% of the 2015 turnout in all of the ridings.

2015
Total votes: 268,534
Liberal: 114,752, 42.7%
Conservative: 113,503, 42.3%
NDP: 30,605, 11.4%
Green: 6,396, 2.4%
Other: 3,278, 1.2%

2017
Total votes: 124,483
Liberal: 47,346, 38.0%, -4.7%
Conservative: 57,706, 46.4%, +4.1%
NDP: 12,224, 9.8%, -1.6%
Green: 4,070, 3.3% +0.9%
Other: 3,137, 2.5%

Additional notes:
1.The NDP's increase in Ottawa-Vanier masks its declines in the other four ridings. 
2.The actual Green Party vote in Saint Laurent (not just its vote percent) increased over 2015.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2017, 11:50:23 AM »

What about the Manitoba by-election to replace New Democrat Kevin Chief?
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2017, 05:44:54 PM »



Is there an explanation for this?
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2017, 12:13:21 PM »

Poor GND, not one person here referred to him by his full name: Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Nadeau-Dubois
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2017, 03:04:40 PM »

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  Cheesy (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2017, 03:46:29 PM »

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  Cheesy (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before!  Cheesy
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2017, 07:30:25 PM »

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  Cheesy (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before!  Cheesy

oh wow, I hadn't even noticed!

Can't wait for your take on the 'Poe Lock'.

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2017, 12:46:04 AM »

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?



(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

Poor Meathead.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2017, 03:24:39 PM »


Thanks!

The name of the B.C 'caretaker' health minister is Mary Polak.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2017, 09:31:36 PM »

Is this the kind of thing people would be interested in me doing more of in the future?

No! Don't EVER do it again.  Cheesy (Just kidding)

Yes, thanks.  It's quite helpful.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2017, 06:27:27 PM »

What is the Nanaimo municipal council election for?  We're well more than half way through the 4 year mandate of councils, so I understand they don't have to hold a by-election.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2017, 06:02:38 PM »

What is the Nanaimo municipal council election for?  We're well more than half way through the 4 year mandate of councils, so I understand they don't have to hold a by-election.

City council. Cllr Wendy Pratt resigned in April in connection to some sort of scandal involving the city council.

We're more than a year away from the next municipal elections, so I fully support them having a by-election.

There are 13 candidates running.  Profiles: https://www.ournanaimo.com/index.php/candidate-bios/



Thanks!
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2017, 12:29:06 PM »
« Edited: June 19, 2017, 12:31:52 PM by Adam T »

Of the 26 senior ministers in the final Stephen Harper cabinet, with Denis Lebel leaving, only 11 will still be in the House of Commons.

Four did not run in the last election, seven were defeated and now four have retired/will be retiring.

These are the ones left:
1.Ed Fast
2.Gerry Ritz
3.Tony Clement
4.Lisa Raitt
5.Kellie Leitch
6.Rob Nicholson
7.Pierre Polievre
8.Erin O'Toole
9.Peter Van Loan
10.Diane Finley
11.Steven Blaney


There are also at least three M.Ps who are still in the Commons who were not part of the final senior cabinet: Peter Kent, Michael Chong and Maxime Bernier.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2017, 01:57:24 AM »

The Conservatives tried "Just-in over his head" in 2015, from what I've seen so far, the Liberals should use 'Scheer Stupidity.'
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2017, 11:25:58 PM »

In related news, Tories polling at 50% (!!!) in 416?

After 15 years in power by 2018, I think we can play this for the Ontario Liberals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKO_JRbcC04

Roy Orbison "It's Over"

I don't know what to make of Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown, but he's a huge fan of socialist musician Billy Bragg, so he can't be all bad.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #22 on: September 08, 2017, 02:03:08 AM »

Both NDP candidates have managed to win over the suburban parts of their constituencies, with Vicki Mowat winning all but one poll in Fairview. Polls made it seem like the Saskatoon suburbs were still solidly supporting the Sask Party, but by-elections have indicated a different trend.

It'll be interesting to see how the NDP does in the even wealthier suburban areas of the city, like Stonebridge or Willowgrove, where the Sask Party won most polls with over 60%-70% of the vote. They might be an even tougher nut to crack than the rural areas, seeing as they are least affected by the austerity budget. The suburbanites living in those areas aren't the ones riding the STC or living on social assistance, that's for sure.

Regina's only comparable suburb is in Regina Wascana Plains, a mixed constituency that has Regina's southeastern portions along with some smaller, wealthy towns further east of the city. I do wish there was a by-election in Regina, because the NDP is doing ridiculously well in the city, where I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDP hit 65% or even 70% in some currently Sask-Party held seats. Saskatoon's swings have been dramatic, but polls have indicated the NDP winning by landslide margins in Regina, even more than in Saskatoon.

Overall, the Sask NDP's shot at forming government relies on winning a few rural seats, outside of the larger and medium sized cities. Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020. To do that, they need to win some small towns, because ranchers and farmers are likely never going to vote for the NDP en masse, so they need to win over the economically downtrodden Saskatchewanians living in the province's smaller population centres if they want to win in those rural seats. Kindersley will be an interesting test to see if they can win in small towns. They don't have to win the by-election, it'd be a miracle if they actually did, but they have to prove they can do well in some small towns, if they want to form government in 2020.

Indeed, the popularity of Brad Wall masked the clearly very large urban (and north)/rural divide in Saskatchewan.

In the 2016 election, the NDP did better than in 2011 in the urban ridings but did even worse in the rural ridings.  In the northern rural ridings where the NDP was relatively strong in 2011, in most of them in 2016 they did no better than they did in the rural ridings in the rest of the province.

Again, these are the northern rural ridings, as opposed to the two ridings in Northern Saskatchewan where the NDP dominates.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #23 on: September 08, 2017, 02:50:34 PM »

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:

No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.
Another interesting one, going by the colour variants, is Last Mountain-Touchwood, north of Regina. Looks surprisingly competitive.



Well, touchwood on that happening.  I hope you are right, but I think you are experiencing irrational exuberance. 
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2017, 08:14:51 AM »


It would be funny (and excellent) if Pierre Nantel left federal politics to run for the PQ provincially and then Jagmeet Singh ran and won in Nantel's riding. Smiley
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