Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Jeppe]

I see the Sask NDP winning by a 50-40 margin in the Saskatoon-Meewasin byelecyion. The Sask Party's candidates are both pretty mediocre, having been recently defeated in various elections in different parts of the city (Friesen lost in a different riding last election, and Kaminski got crushed in a city council election on the other side of town just 3 months ago).

The former mayor of Saskatoon, Don Atchison might've been able to win this race for the Sask Party, but I'm gonna say this race is likely NDP.

[Jeppe]

He's still popular in suburban Saskatoon, in which a large part of Saskatoon Meewasin comprises of. Talk of the town is that the by-election is happening in either late February or early March, with Wall calling the election shortly after their nomination meeting on the 30th.

[Jeppe]

I'm sure that Hatman will create a much better map later, but for now, here's my sh**tty Saskatoon Meewasin poll map from the 2016 election.

[Jeppe]

Saskatoon by-election being held on March 2nd.

[Jeppe]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/saskatoon-meewasin-mainstreet-poll-1.3971635

46% NDP
23% Sask Party
4% Liberal
4% Green

Holy smokes, the Sask Party is getting blown out of the water. This is a riding where they won a majority of the vote just 10 months ago, and now they're struggling to retain half of their previous vote share. With this being a by-election, I doubt many of the undecideds will end up voting.

[Jeppe]

Mainstreet Polling is a regular here in Saskatchewan, and they're usually pretty accurate.. If Saskatoon-Meewasin is actually this lopsided, then I imagine the NDP would wipe out most of the Sask Party's caucus in Regina and Saskatoon.

[Jeppe]

So, what are your guys' rating on the Saskatoon by-election? I'm gonna say it's "likely NDP" until I see another poll showing the NDP far ahead, in which case I'll say it's a "safe NDP" race.

[Jeppe]

Gonna predict a 5% victory for the Sask NDP in Saskatoon Meewasin. The weird polling shifts aside, the fundamentals of the race are pointing towards an NDP win.

[Jeppe]

Results 10/50 polls results

NDP - 52%
SKP - 40%

Would be nice knowing where those polls were though..

[Jeppe]

The Sask NDP is most likely going to win by double digits in Saskatoon Meewasin.

22/50; 55% to 38%.

[Jeppe]

Calling it for the Meilli. There are only about 800 or 900 more votes coming in, and he has a 400+ vote lead stockpiled.

[Jeppe]

I think a bit tighter, but still an NDP win. I think Penner was a very strong candidate and that without him, it would've been even more of a blowout.

[Jeppe]

Saskatoon-Meewasin Final:

Meili, NDP - 54.2 % (2,666 votes),
Penner, SP - 39.9% (1,962 votes)
Lamoureaux, Liberal - 3.7%(180 votes)
Prokopchuk, PC - 1.3 % (62 votes)
Setyo, Green - 1.1% (53 votes)

voter turnout is at 40.62 per cent (4,923 of 12,121 registered voters)

So that last poll out, was odd/bad polling? and might have scared the crud out of the NDP to get the vote out.

The Sask NDP pulled out all the stops to win the by-election, and a strong GOTV operation was included. I think most, if not the entire Sask NDP caucus was pulling the vote, alongside a bunch of volunteers from across the province.

[Jeppe]

Oh wow, she's probably gonna be in that seat for 40-50 years, considering how young she is and how safe the riding has been for the Liberals.

[Jeppe]

Yeah, we'll probably see a landslide 20-30 point win for the NDP. It was one of the Sask Party's most vulnerable seats in the last general election, back when they were trouncing the NDP by 30 points.

[Jeppe]

If Ralph Goodale was nominated as the next Lieutenant Governor of Saskatchewan, which party would win the by-election? Would the Liberals lose their only seat in the province or would they manage to hold on? A lot of provincial NDP voters in the riding would probably revert back to voting for the federal party once Goodale is gone.

[Jeppe]

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.

Some polling has showed the NDP tying the Sask party in "rest of Saskatchewan", which includes smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the north, but some rural areas (mainly some small towns, doubt ranchers would ever vote NDP en masse) could voting for the NDP again.

[Jeppe]

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

[Jeppe]

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

Only the Battlefords are competitive for the NDP provincially.  Lloydminster and the rural portions are solidly Saskatchewan Party.  I believe there are around 4-5 provincial ridings per federal and the others are not competitive.  Even in the 1999 and 2003 provincial elections which the NDP won, this riding would have still gone solidly Saskatchewan Party.

The NDP is running competitively with the Sask Party in rural Saskatchewan according to polling. There are tons of small towns in that area the Sask NDP could win. Lloydminster is a stretch, but I wouldn't see be surprised to see a tight race provincially in the federal boundaries.

[Jeppe]

Weird how we haven't gotten a single Saskatoon Fairview poll, when we got 2 Saskatoon Meewasin by-election polls.

[Jeppe]

Yes, the NDP will win it.  The question is, by how much? My guess is 53-42.

My guess is 55-35. If the Sask NDP is pulling over 40% of the vote province-wide, they definitely have to put up large margins in seats like this.

[Jeppe]

Looks like my initial conservative estimate was too conservative. NDP leading 65-25 with 11/50 reporting.

[Jeppe]

A lot of the people from out of the province commenting don't understand quite HOW unpopular the Sask Party is right now. I think this by-election should be a sign that the Sask NDP could legitimately contest the Kindersley by-election, especially with Bill Boyd's legal dramas.

Advance voting depends on the constituency, the one where I volunteered for, our NDP candidate won by the advance votes by a slim margin, but some other candidate's election day victories were overturned by the advance votes.

[Jeppe]

A lot of the people from out of the province commenting don't understand quite HOW unpopular the Sask Party is right now. I think this by-election should be a sign that the Sask NDP could legitimately contest the Kindersley by-election, especially with Bill Boyd's legal dramas.

Advance voting depends on the constituency, the one where I volunteered for, our NDP candidate won by the advance votes by a slim margin, but some other candidate's election day victories were overturned by the advance votes.

I know the Saskatchewan Party did take a hit over the last budget, but Wall's approval ratings in the polls I've seen is still around 45% which is a lot lower than it has traditionally been, but compared to other premiers still quite high although somewhat lower than Trudeau's.  I guess Kindersley is possible, but I tend to think the ridings they won in 2003 is probably the one's most likely to flip.

Brad Wall's popularity has always been a bit higher than the party's approval though. He's lifted up the party's popularity by making it the Brad Wall Party, but now his reputation is being tarnished.

[Jeppe]

I may be from Ontario, but I do not think Kindersley will even be close. The NDP finished third in 2016.

To an independent who was rallying himself as the anti-Sask Party candidate. Granted he was a right-winger, but quite a few NDP votes went to him hoping he might be able to take down Bill Boyd.