I agree the Tories are unlikely to hold this, but the Grits might have a tougher time than many think. I believe this area voted 67% yes in the 95 referendum so I think the BQ could possibly win here, mind you with the BQ, NDP, and Conservatives all seeming to be irrelevant in Quebec the Liberals just might take it. In fact if Quebec becomes to Justin Trudeau like it was for his father this could make it very difficult to unseat the Liberals even if the Tories and NDP gain in English Canada.
I agree. Recent polling in Quebec is somewhat inconsistent but generally would not suggest a Liberal pick-up in an opposition-held seat in Quebec at the moment. I think the Tories are much more likely to retain than the Bloc to threaten, given the Bloc's perennial dysfunction these days, but who knows.
The best poll for the Liberals by far is Abacus's July poll, the Quebec subsample of which had Lib 53, Con 14, NDP 14, BQ 14, which would put the NDP way down from 2015 and the Liberals way up but the Cons and BQ only down slightly. The Liberals would narrowly take the seat on a uniform swing with that result, but only narrowly, and those figures suggest the Liberals are gaining more where the NDP were strong in 2015 than in Conservative-held seats with a strong Bloc history like Lac-Saint-Jean.
Campaign Research's July poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 42, Con 15, NDP 23, BQ 17, which would not be good enough for the Liberals to take the seat on a uniform swing, though they'd be in shouting distance.
Angus Reid's June poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 38, Con 18, NDP 20 (no BQ result reported), which is barely any net swing to the Liberals relative to the Conservatives and leaves the Liberals in third on a uniform swing.
And finally EKOS's June poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 33, Con 20, NDP 16, BQ 16, even worse for the Liberals, actually a swing to the Conservatives and definitely not good enough to win.
Certainly not ruling out a Liberal pick-up but does not seem to be strongly indicated by polling at the moment.
