Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[MaxQue]

She's retiring. Can QS hold it? Maybe a chance for the NDPQ to run (is that still happening)? Gouin is basically La Petite-Patrie, which pretty much the most leftist area in Quebec.

The rumour is than QS is trying to convince Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (the most hardline student leader during the 2012 student strikes) to run.

[MaxQue]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

[MaxQue]

Lac-Saint-Jean: LeBel's resignation took effect last week. Desbiens Mayor Nicolas Martel isn't running. Nor is Gilbert Dominique.

Nor is the Bloc candidate of 2015.

[MaxQue]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

[MaxQue]

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

Jean-Talon also includes very wealthy Sillery.

[MaxQue]

10/53 polls.  Bremner jumps into a big lead with 42% of the vote, Fry in second with 17%.  Vision Vancouver's Diego Cardona at 9.6%

NPA has 5 of 9 school board positions, Green 3 and one Vision Vancouver.

The orger is quite stable now. NPA, Green, leftovers of COPE, "OneCity" and then Vision

[MaxQue]

The Bloc won't win. Their base (unionised factory workers) in Alma will be split between the Bloc and the NDP.

[MaxQue]

The Bloc won't win. Their base (unionised factory workers) in Alma will be split between the Bloc and the NDP.

I think the NDP will do worse than expected.  This is not an area where they have traditional strength and this is an area with a lot of old stock pure laine types so I think unfortunately for them Singh might be a liability.  That doesn't mean he will be everywhere in Quebec, I think on the Island of Montreal and the Gatineau area he could do quite well where people tend to be more open to those who are different.

Oh, NDP will do badly, I just thought the NDP/Bloc (their typical voters in Alma is the same person) split would make Bloc unable to get better than 2nd place.

[MaxQue]

If the NDP lost 13% of their vote share in all their currently held Quebec seats, only Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Alexandre Boulerice, and Guy Caron would remain in the House (of course, this is before the 13% gets redistributed).

Through:

1. That part of Quebec is probably one of the worst for Singh.
2. The race was sold in Quebec media as a Lib-Con-Bloc race. I suspect races with NDP incumbents would, at the very least, be described as NDP-something-(something) races.

[MaxQue]

I think Bill 62 and a weakened NDP in Quebec is setting the stage for a Bloc comeback. I think the Bloc has this, unless all/most of the polls reporting are from Alma and the area.

Bloc lead is down to 44 votes.

[MaxQue]

Since Denis Lebel won more on a name than party I thought I would compare to neighbouring Jonquiere and Chicoutimi Le Fjord.

Both of these are cities, while this is mainly rural.

[MaxQue]

Bloc is now 3rd.

[MaxQue]

Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney is resigning his seat Nov. 1 to allow Kenney to get into the legislature.

Is he quitting politics or is this one of those "get your seat back next election" deals?

Probably more a "you'll get a comfy paid position once we recover the power electors stole from us".

[MaxQue]

Denis Lemieux from Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is resigning so sometime in the new year a by-election here.  As long as the Liberals maintain their polling numbers in Quebec, suspect they will hold this, but Quebec is known to switch on the dime so if poll numbers change dramatically then you could get an upset.

For "family" reasons. More likely to provide a seat to Jean Tremblay, outgoing mayor of Saguenay.

[MaxQue]

PC 2064 (46.89%; -4.59)
Lib 1129 (25.65%; -16.77)
NDP 1088 (24.72%; +18.62)
Ind 121 (2.75%)

[MaxQue]

Thomas Mulcair will resign in June 2018.

[MaxQue]

Outremont: potential candidates include a Mulcair staffer for the NDP, 2015 candidate Rachel Bendayan for the Grits. Justin will presumably want a high-profile person in this seat (as usual, I pity the locals in that riding) Mulcair's resignation might not take effect till September.

Might be a three peat for the Liberals as this was traditionally a Liberal stronghold so I would put money on them retaking it.  That being said it is an urban multicultural riding so unlike the regions of Quebec where the NDP is probably dead in the water, they still might be competitive here.  BQ and Tories are not likely to be a factor and both will just be happy to get their deposits back.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord should probably stay Liberal although not a Liberal stronghold by any means but none of the other three parties are in a strong enough position at the moment to snatch it although each of the other three could win it under the right conditions, but those don't exist at the moment.

Another by-election was hasn't been called but will have to be soon is Kelowna West in BC, although this should largely be a snoozer as it is a very safe BC Liberal riding.

In Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, is there any chance the NDP could take it back if former M.P Dany Morin runs for them again?  He did pretty well in narrowly losing in 2015.

He's thinking about it.