Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[MAINEiac4434]

These five by-elections look like they'll be the most boring ever. 

When Markham-Thornhill, which had a Liberal majority of 10,000 in 2015, is considered the closest to "toss-up," I think you're right.

[MAINEiac4434]

These five by-elections look like they'll be the most boring ever. 

When Markham-Thornhill, which had a Liberal majority of 10,000 in 2015, is considered the closest to "toss-up," I think you're right.

That was the 2015 election though; If you look at how the 2011 election was transposed on to the new Riding you got:
LPC - 37%
CPC - 36%
NPD - 23%

We really don't think we're going to have a redux of the Ignatieff Catastrophe do we?

[MAINEiac4434]

...with one poll reporting, Cons leading in Markham Thornhill!

tudeau needs to resign right now

[MAINEiac4434]

...with one poll reporting, Cons leading in Markham Thornhill!

tudeau needs to resign right now

Liberals now lead 124-114.

liberals are unbeatable

[MAINEiac4434]

In all seriousness the NDP is only at 50 votes in Markham while the Liberals and Tories are approaching 1,000.

[MAINEiac4434]

Progressive Canadian Party is above the Greens in Markham for now. The NDP is not having a good night thus far.

[MAINEiac4434]

It's telling that while both opposition parties are in leadership races, the Conservatives have held their base while the NDP has crashed to fringe party status.

Except in Ottawa-Vanier.

Yes, but the NDP is much, much stronger in Ottawa-Vanier than in any of these other ridings.

[MAINEiac4434]

A good showing for the NDP in Ottawa-Vanier, but a bad one in Saint Laurent.

Yeah. Doesn't bode well for the next election for the Dippers in Quebec.

[MAINEiac4434]

Needless to say if Trudeau didn't impose his preferred candidate on Markham Thornhill, the margin of victory would have been more than the current 12-15%.

Is Ng unpopular in the area?

[MAINEiac4434]

The Green candidate is still in front of the NDP candidate in St-Laurent.

[MAINEiac4434]

A take away, for what these Volkshammer-level seats are worth:

The Liberals are clearly holding their 2015 vote and continuing to drain from the (currently) listless Dippers while the Tories have little to worry about in their strongholds. The reduced margin in Markham is mainly due to (rather appalling) branch stacking for Ng, but these types of seats will eventual start to give the Government headaches closer to 2019.

And Canadians don't feel like voting in by-elections.

Yeah, the small turnout in Liberal seats to me shows that the there's no outrage at the Trudeau Government, and that people aren't clamoring for change.

[MAINEiac4434]

=2.The actual Green Party vote in Saint Laurent (not just its vote percent) increased over 2015.

What was the story there w/ Daniel Green?

Turns out he's actually the deputy leader of the party, so I imagine the Greens focused a ton of resources on St-Laurent.

[MAINEiac4434]

LOL Grits are screwed next year.

[MAINEiac4434]

RIP: Scarborough-Agincourt Grit MP Arnold Chan has died of cancer at 50.

Extremely sad. RIP.

[MAINEiac4434]

The Grits don’t even have to win the seat to win the narrative; all they have to do is come close.

[MAINEiac4434]

Not often you see two party leaders going head to head in a riding, even if one of them is DOA.

[MAINEiac4434]

Not often you see two party leaders going head to head in a riding, even if one of them is DOA.

It reeks of desperation from the Liberals.  This kind of thing happens all the time actually, but almost exclusively by fringe parties.

Yeah, I meant among the CPC, NDP, LPC and Greens.

[MAINEiac4434]

Actually it's three leaders going up against each other: the Green leader is running in Lougheed, too.