Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Poirot]

Liberal nomination for Ottawa-Vanier is February 5th.

François Lambert is interested to run for the Liberals. Thinks replacing Stéphane Dion would be an opportunity for him. He is a former dragon on the local Dragon's Den version.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201701/19/01-5061004-lex-dragon-francois-lambert-lorgne-les-liberaux-federaux.php

Talking about it publicly doesn't seem to be the way to be chosen.

[Poirot]

Conservative leadership candidate Rick Peterson is interested in running in Saint-Laurent. Why???

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201702/25/01-5073277-le-conservateur-rick-peterson-veut-ravir-la-circonscription-de-saint-laurent.php

[Poirot]

You beat me to it! here are the Decided as well, even worse for the SP

So not so close in Saskatoon-Meewasin...
All Voters (Decided+Leaning)
NDP - 46% (59%)
SP - 23% (30%)
SL - 4% (7%)
Green - 4% (4%)
undecided - 23%

Mainstreet had another poll for Saskatoon-Meewasin and shows a dead heat

February 23  All Voters (Decided+Leanoing)

NDP 37% (44%)
SP 39% (45%)
Sl  3% (5%)
Green 5% (6%)
Undecided 15%

margin of error 4.7%
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dead-heat-meewasin/

[Poirot]

The Saint-Laurent LPC nomination vote was for the first round:

Rizqy 539
Lambropoulos 431
James 398

And after it was 626 for Lambropoulos to 508. I think they used preferential ballot so I don't know if a candidate can lose vote on the secound round. These are the numbers that were reported.
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2017/03/08/la-candidate-liberale-dans-saint-laurent-sera-connue-ce-soir-1

The other candidates are Jimmy Yu who also ran in the last election for the Conservatives. Mathieu Auclair for the NDP. For the Green party it's longtime environmentalist Daniel Green who is deputy leader. William Fayad for the Bloc, he ran previously for the BQ, PQ and for borough mayor of Saint-Laurent with Projer Montréal last municipal election. 

[Poirot]

John Turmel is a candidate in Ottawa-Vanier.

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Gouin

QS 68%
PLQ 12%
CAQ 6.5%
Vert 6.5%
ON 5%
Others and 6 candidates with zero vote

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Option Nationale in third now. Today the PQ Gouin riding president said he would vote ON. Maybe they will have a goos showing if it's a trend for PQ orphans.   

[Poirot]

With QS at 68% it's more interesting to watch 3to 5th place and the minor candidates with single digit votes. Every candidate has more than 0 vote now.

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QS voted to have talks of merge with QS yes. The PQ riding president chose to vote ON since the QS agreement is not happening so PQ voters might not vote QS or stay home or do as he is doing and vote ON.

CAQ is weak in Montreal and especially in a leftist area so I don't think it's a surprise if they do badly.

[Poirot]

ON in second (so yes must be the orphan PQ vote helping ON)

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CAQ got 8.7% in last general election. They are at about 7% right now. I don't consider it much of a difference. Even with higher result provincially CAQ possibly will not rise more here. 

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Seems the interesting thing is battle for second. The PLQ vote is much lower than in the election.

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At half way, QS at 68%. About 20 votes difference between ON and PLQ for second.

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PLQ in second with about 40 vote lead.

Bloc Pot has more votes than conservative party.

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PC in the lead by 71 votes over NDP. About a third of polls reporting.
John Turmel is last with 8 votes.

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PC extending the lead to about 400 at half point.

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PC at 39%. None of the above party in 5th place with 1.25%

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As they are coming down the stretch, PC 39%, NDP 33%, LIB 23%

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The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

If the number of people interested in running for the Liberals in the future Lac-Saint-Jean byelection is an indication, a pickup seems possible. Richard Hébert, the mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini was contacted by the party a few months ago. He will consult the population during the summer. He is supported by business people from his town and elected officials from Alma area.

The mayor of Desbiens is interested to run. An ex-leader of Mashteuiatsh reserve is also thinking of running. The mayor of Roberval was interested but chose to run again for mayor, the municipal elections are in November.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201706/28/01-5111677-deux-maires-du-lac-interesses-par-le-parti-liberal.php

The mayor of Desbiens stated opportunities are in power, not in opposition, that running in a byelection is an advantage because people vote for the candidate that will be in power.

This could be what will happen, not sure if there is anger at the government in the area, for regional economic development it's good to be on the government side.

Denis Lebel probably got a big personal vote for the job he had done. He received double the vote of conservative candidates in the other two ridings in the region, Jonquière and Chicoutimi- Le Fjord (16-17%). The Liberals had 28% and 31% in those two.

The candidates are not known yet but the Liberals have a chance. They seem to be polling double of any other party. The NDP came a close second but polling below last election in the province. The Conservative and NDP will be lead by not well known leaders.       

[Poirot]

Mainstreet research poll of Saskatchewan in mid-May had a federal question. In Regina the Liberal party has a 12 point lead

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/sk-party-fades-as-ndp-takes-9-point-lead/

Since then Andrew Scheer became Conservative leader. There could be some local boost effect. Also it's regional number from one poll.

[Poirot]

Trudeau and Scheer visited Saguenay and Lac Saint-Jean region, a pre-campaign for the Lac-Saint-Jean byelection.

An editorial from a regional newspaper talks of the Trudeau effect for the byelection
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/opinions/editoriaux/201707/26/01-5119676-leffet-trudeau-et-la-partielle.php

The Liberal candidate will start ahead not only for the lure of power or the government policies but mostly because of Trudeau's popularity. There were big crowds and Trudeau took a lot of time shaking hands and taking selfies. He gives the impression of being accessicle and listening to people. He met local leaders from business, union, social housing, mayors.

Local news coverage seems very positive. In addition to the excitement of the rock star visit, Alma mayor said trudeau is doing exceptional work and has a magnetic personality. Trudeau gave his word to farmers he will defend them and he would find a solution to a local problem of cell phone coverage. 

[Poirot]

Is it an upset win when you are favoured to win? The opposition parties will not be lead by powerful leaders. I imagine people are not angry at the government and want to vote against it. The Bloc has a low profile, probably doesn't have money, they can,t bring jobs or help realise local projects. Besides the Liberals no other party seems to have a name as potential candidate, unless they are hiding a major star candidate. It looks like mayors of Alma, Dolbeau and Roberval will be behind the Liberal party.

Richard Hébert, mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini announced he was seeking the Liberal nomination earlier this month. He wants to help the development of his town and region. He wants to find solutions for the forestry industry and its future. He said he was approached by some political and socio-economic players to run. 

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1049258/le-maire-de-dolbeau-mistassini-se-lance-en-politique-federale

It seemed later all the other potential candidates declined to run after that but there is another person seeking the nomination.

Marjolaine Etienne, Innu, former vice-chief of Mashteuiatsh reserve.
http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1051149/marjolaine-etienne-brigue-linvestiture-liberale-dans-lac-saint-jean?fromBeta=true

[Poirot]

For Louis-Hébert, I was listening to a preview on tv. It seems CAQ has a good chance of winning. They had a party paid poll (I think done by Mainstreet) done and they are ahead. So a good turnout is good for CAQ. Lib would need a low turnout to win. At 4 pm turnout was 33%.

Louis-Hébert was the ridign with the highest turnout last election. (from memory about 83%)
The rifding is higher income, higher education. A journalist suggested the Sam Hamad (who vacated the seat) loyalists could vote for the PCQ (Conservative), not voting for the opposition but not happy how Hamad was treated. The PCQ candidate works in the riding office of the CON Portneuf MP. She is a past candidate for mayor in Saint-Augustin. She was the CAQ riding president in Portneuf but left when the CAQ welcomed the PLQ riding president and became the CAQ candidarte for Portneuf.

Other candidates have also multi-party past. The PQ candidate had also QS membership up until the campaign began. The CAQ candidate was a PLQ member until maybe 2 years ago. She has worked for PLQ minister office in communication before. The PLQ candidate worked for Hamad in the Louis-Hébert riding office. She worked as volunteer when Hamad first got elected but between his first election and started working for him she was on the ADQ riding executive for five months. Some suspect she was spying.

[Poirot]

The Louis-Hébert campaign started and the two party with a shot at winning had to change candidates.
https://looniepolitics.com/scandal-plagues-start-of-quebec-by-election/
(Contrary to what Bélanger wrote the riding does not include Sillery and Laval University, maybe he was thinking of the federal riding)

The CAQ candidate is young, pregnant and good at communications. She works for the Coroner's office, did media relations when there were tragedies. She claims some ooponents have raised the maternity leave against her (taking maternity leave in a couple monts for a 1 year mandate) Uses Integrety on her signs.

The Liberal candidate is said to be the 8th choice of the party. Good when meeting people but not in media. Had a facebook posting supporting covered face at citizenship ceremony. Sam Hamad was not at her nomination and I don't think publicly supported his 10 year riding assistant. After the fiasco of the PLQ candidate withdrawing, Couillard changed chief of staff, was blamed for this and caucus doesn't seem to like him.

PLQ has face problems. Local issues are improvong traffic and a paint plant that odor pollute and got many environment infracyions. PLQ pledge to extend a highway but a decade old government report states it's not a good idea. Just over the weekend Couillard promised the paint plant would move. Nathalie Normandeau, a former PLQ vice premier (facing corruption charges) and now radio host told people to vote CAQ. Among her criticisms she doesn't like the systemic racism commission.

http://www.journaldequebec.com/2017/09/28/normandeau-invite-les-quebecois-a-voter-pour-la-caq

[Poirot]

I take a personal interest in the goings-on of Louis-Hebert, since the man himself was my great (x12th?) grandfather.  Of course, he is also related to half of the province.

Given the lack of enthusiasm for the PLQ, does the NDPQ stand a chance of reaching double digits?  Or will they get a more fringe-y 1-2%?

I don't know if I have L-Hébert in my ancestry.

NDPQ probably fringe. Probably no budget and maybe there is a lack of exposure. Don't know locally but national media concentrate on 3 or 4 candidates. There are 10 candidates running, the leader of Parti Vert is running, there is a Option Nationale candidate, an Independent, a Equioe Autonomiste.

In some previous by-elections PLQ won but did not have great scores like in Saint-Henri or Verdun but other parties split the rest of vote. Will be interesting to see tonight if CAQ consolidates the change vote or it splits among numerous parties. It seems PQ would like to get the same score as the general election (18%). QS will probably increase its share.