Hong Kong (mainly due to Beijing's reaction if the pro-independence candidates do well)
The CE election is an indirect election. The censorship implemented by the Electoral Commission would bar any pro-independence candidates from participating. Added to this, the pan-democrats are inclined
not to send any candidates to the race.
For the LegCo by-election, no matter it is FPTP or multiple-seat proportional system, both pro-Beijing and non-establishments viewed it as a massive pro-Beijing wave. They will take 2 seats in FPTP and 3-4 seats in multiple-seat PS, as well as controlling both the functional constituencies and the geographical constituencies.