2017 State Legislature Megathread

[KingSweden]

Morris County Democrats would do well in challenging Anthony M. Bucco, Jr., who represents Christie's Morris County base. He is the same assemblyman who questioned Obama's birth records like Trump. If Donald Trump has a horrible approval rating by the fall, Democrats would be wise to invest in the 25th District and go into a red district.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/nj_assemblyman_says_jerome_cor.html

But is he beatable? I think Dems will have a good year in NJ but Morris is Morris

[rbt48]

Ballotpedia calls this the most consequential election since Nov 8, 2016:

https://ballotpedia.org/Delaware_state_legislative_special_elections,_2017

[KingSweden]

Ballotpedia calls this the most consequential election since Nov 8, 2016:

https://ballotpedia.org/Delaware_state_legislative_special_elections,_2017

I still think Democrats are pretty strongly favored here, but it'll be an interesting one.

[Suburbia]

It is not surprising that Stephanie Hansen won in Delaware's 10th Senatorial District. It got attention in the national news about Democrats moving forward post-Obama and Clinton and she won by 18 points.

[Suburbia]

Morris County Democrats would do well in challenging Anthony M. Bucco, Jr., who represents Christie's Morris County base. He is the same assemblyman who questioned Obama's birth records like Trump. If Donald Trump has a horrible approval rating by the fall, Democrats would be wise to invest in the 25th District and go into a red district.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/nj_assemblyman_says_jerome_cor.html

But is he beatable? I think Dems will have a good year in NJ but Morris is Morris

Bucco could be beatable, after all, Hillary Clinton won NJ LD25 48.19% to 47.98%. The Democrats should field someone against Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll, the same Republican assemblyman who said in 2008 that "African-Americans should thank the Lord for slavery". He never got in trouble in his district for that because it looks like Morris voters didn't care or it never got so much attention. He also supports legalization of marijuana, so he is a Mountain Morris libertarian.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/2/8/1631144/-Morning-Digest-New-Jersey-s-holding-legislative-elections-this-year-and-we-ve-got-data-on-em

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QEjr5hSS2BSPZdp660NU4vSAT64uh__0I0OulMhJSIQ/edit#gid=1530012623

http://www.dailyrecord.com/story/news/2016/10/02/morris-legislator-acts-legalize-marijuana/91171698/

https://www.opednews.com/populum/page.php?f=opedne_mary_sha_080103_new_jersey_assemblym.htm

[Suburbia]

I think the most competitive New Jersey legislative race will be in NJ LD11, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016. State Sen. Jennifer Beck, a Republican, a moderate Northeastern Republican is facing a tough challenge from Vin Gopal, and this race could go down to the wire. Her running mates are good, Red Bank Councilman Michael Whelan and Ocean Township Deputy Mayor Rob Acerra. Beck-Whelan-Acerra. They will have to overcome a potential bad GOP year to win. Whelan, 25 is a rising NJ GOP star (he could be governor or senator one day).

https://www.facebook.com/redbankmikew/

http://www.moremonmouthmusings.net/2017/03/06/beck-announces-her-selected-assembly-candidates-in-ld-11/

http://tworivertimes.com/red-bank-gop-ready-to-take-the-reins/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QEjr5hSS2BSPZdp660NU4vSAT64uh__0I0OulMhJSIQ/edit#gid=1530012623

[mds32]

Looks like the GOP is now the favorite to pickup SD-02. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/nj/NJ-Dems-pick-new-candidate-in-close-Senate-race-.html

[KingSweden]

Looks like the GOP is now the favorite to pickup SD-02. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/nj/NJ-Dems-pick-new-candidate-in-close-Senate-race-.html

This and Beck's seat could cancel one another out.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like the GOP is now the favorite to pickup SD-02. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/nj/NJ-Dems-pick-new-candidate-in-close-Senate-race-.html

This and Beck's seat could cancel one another out.

Well, I think Democrats are basically a lock pick up SD-07(Diane  Allen's open seat). 

[LabourJersey]

Looks like the GOP is now the favorite to pickup SD-02. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/nj/NJ-Dems-pick-new-candidate-in-close-Senate-race-.html

Too early to tell. Chris Brown seems to be a strong candidate, but it's also possible that the Democrats will win the governor's race big, and those coattails are going to be felt down the ticket.

[Suburbia]

The NJEA (New Jersey Education Association) (Teachers Union) is looking to oust State Senate President Stephen Sweeney, saying that he is a Christiecrat, and a conservative Democrat. Well, he is from South Jersey, which is a little bit more conservative than Northern Jersey.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/NJ-teachers-union-is-trying-to-topple-Senate-President-Stephen-Sweeney.html?mobi=true

[Babeuf]

The NJEA (New Jersey Education Association) (Teachers Union) is looking to oust State Senate President Stephen Sweeney, saying that he is a Christiecrat, and a conservative Democrat. Well, he is from South Jersey, which is a little bit more conservative than Northern Jersey.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/NJ-teachers-union-is-trying-to-topple-Senate-President-Stephen-Sweeney.html?mobi=true

He clearly was a Christiecrat for Christie's' first term and part of the second. He supported important parts of Christie's agenda.

[KingSweden]

I have a hard time seeing anyone take down machine boss Steve Sweeney but YMMV

[Suburbia]

New Jersey Democrat Jill Lazare is running against State Senate Minority and Republican Leader Tom Kean, Jr. in the NJ-LD-21. It is a district that Hillary Clinton won in November. With the N.J. GOP being unpopular because of Gov. Chris Christie's baggage, Kean could face a competitive race in this conservative-leaning suburban upscale New Jersey district.

Yes, the Kean name is still popular in N.J. But I will keep an eye on this district. Assemblyman Jon Bramnick and Assemblywoman Nancy Munoz, both Union County Republicans, have Democratic challengers. It's an ancestrally Northeastern Republican district, but anything can happen this year as it seems that New Jersey may go full Democratic in 2017. However, I don't think Kean will lose his State Senate seat; if he did, it would be one of the biggest political upsets in N.J. and American history.

Kean is still seen as the GOP's biggest chance at beating Menendez in 2018.


http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/all_the_democrats_and_republicans_running_for_the.html#incart_river_index

[Suburbia]

New Jersey: GOP gubernatorial frontrunner Kim Guadagno says that there is no chance that the NJ GOP will take control of the N.J. Legislature for the first time since 2001. The GOP's last shot at winning the N.J. Legislature was probably 2013 during Christie's dominant era pre-Bridgegate when he was winning traditionally Democratic counties like Camden, Passaic, Union, Middlesex. If elected, she wants to be a check to a likely Democratic-controlled Legislature.

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/04/guadagno-no-chance-republicans-win-control-of-the-legislature-this-year-111314

However, N.J. Senate Republicans would disagree. State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. believes that N.J. Republicans can pick up 4 (four) seats. They currently have 16 seats. They would reach to 20, and the State Senate would be tied--that happened in 2002. Kean and Sweeney would be Co-Presidents.

https://savejersey.com/2017/04/four-districts-n-j-republicans-think-can-flip-2017/

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/09/nyregion/new-jersey-democrats-get-control-and-deficit.html

The question remains: Does Kean and Bramnick want to remain in the N.J. Legislature; wait to be Senate President and Assembly Speaker in 2021 if Murphy has low approval ratings and drags down N.J. Democrats and run for reelection in safe seats in suburban New Jersey, one of the wealthiest areas in the state? Or, do they want to run for U.S. Senate in 2018 or 2020?

[Duke of York]

New Jersey: GOP gubernatorial frontrunner Kim Guadagno says that there is no chance that the NJ GOP will take control of the N.J. Legislature for the first time since 2001. The GOP's last shot at winning the N.J. Legislature was probably 2013 during Christie's dominant era pre-Bridgegate when he was winning traditionally Democratic counties like Camden, Passaic, Union, Middlesex. If elected, she wants to be a check to a likely Democratic-controlled Legislature.

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/04/guadagno-no-chance-republicans-win-control-of-the-legislature-this-year-111314

However, N.J. Senate Republicans would disagree. State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. believes that N.J. Republicans can pick up 4 (four) seats. They currently have 16 seats. They would reach to 20, and the State Senate would be tied--that happened in 2002. Kean and Sweeney would be Co-Presidents.

https://savejersey.com/2017/04/four-districts-n-j-republicans-think-can-flip-2017/

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/09/nyregion/new-jersey-democrats-get-control-and-deficit.html

The question remains: Does Kean and Bramnick want to remain in the N.J. Legislature; wait to be Senate President and Assembly Speaker in 2021 if Murphy has low approval ratings and drags down N.J. Democrats and run for reelection in safe seats in suburban New Jersey, one of the wealthiest areas in the state? Or, do they want to run for U.S. Senate in 2018 or 2020?

With Trump in office there is just about zero chance  Republicans tie or take control of the state senate. I think its possible they expand their majority by a seat or two.

[mds32]

In VA HoD-18 Will King (G) has a large amount of money and seems to be getting a large amount of traction in the district.

http://www.vpap.org/candidates/289589-tristan-shields/

[Suburbia]

New Jersey:

Former New Jersey Gov. and current State Senator Dick Codey wins Democratic renomination to the State Senate.

State Senator Gerald Cardinale wins renomination.

They are one of the two longest serving legislators in N.J. history.