VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Siena:

Siena: N+3
Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5

Average: N+2.1

As long as the average stays at this position (or goes higher for Northam), Northam should be fine.

You're including Optimus but excluding The Polling Company and WaPo?

Either way, would suggest Northam has just barely weathered the storm.

I'm doing the last 5 polls.

[Keep cool-idge]

This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

[BudgieForce]

This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra

[_]

This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra

You mean 52-46-2 Because Gillespie gets all Undecideds.

[Matty]

If you were a republican, how would you react to a Northam victory by 3 points?

Yea, it would be upsetting to lose what appeared to be a winnable race, but on the other hand, it's reassuring that trump's approvals aren't totally wiping out "generic r"

[Keep cool-idge]

This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra

The only poll I can find they did in 2016 is North Carolina and it’s a garbage poll,
They had both Hillary and trump tied at 44-44 with Gary Johnson getting 3 two days before the election!

[BudgieForce]

This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra

The only poll I can find they did in 2016 is North Carolina and it’s a garbage poll,
They had both Hillary and trump tied at 44-44 with Gary Johnson getting 3 two days before the election!

They regularly polled in 2016 during both the primary and the general.

[KingSweden]

If you were a republican, how would you react to a Northam victory by 3 points?

Yea, it would be upsetting to lose what appeared to be a winnable race, but on the other hand, it's reassuring that trump's approvals aren't totally wiping out "generic r"

In your case, you’d probably also want to consider how downballot races go. HoD could be instructive with the map gerrymandered in GOP favor

[LimoLiberal]

Looks like the swath of rain is going right through NOVA or a little south Tuesday afternoon and night. Bad news for Democrats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tuesday weather outlook:

Pouring rain in SW VA.
Scattered showers in VA Beach.
Slightly overcast in the morning in Fairfax, then rain once Republicans come home from work.

Great news.

I like this forecast.

[HST1948]

Final Emerson Poll: Northam +3

Northam: 49%
Gillespie: 46%
Hyra: 1%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/927325453265915905/photo/1

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Final Emerson Poll: Northam +3

Northam: 49%
Gillespie: 46%
Hyra: 1%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/927325453265915905/photo/1

Yeah boi!!! C'mon Northam, final push, we are gonna do this!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Polling seems to be converging around Northam +3.

[Virginiá]

New thread due to almost reaching 2,000 posts: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276670