VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[heatcharger]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

[Keep cool-idge]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.

[Deblano]

https://medium.com/@brendanlilly/heads-up-an-impending-disaster-in-virginia-99a67afaa8a4

Here's the link to the article; which basically says that Northam's campaign has absolutely no message beyond being a 'nice guy who's a doctor' and that he's getting hammered over his record at the state development agency. I did think that at least Perriello had some fight in the primary (and had some decent campaign ads) whilst Northam's seemed to be 'I worked with X democratic interest group'.

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I think you kinda hit the nail on the head about why Northam kinda rubs me the wrong way. He's a nice man IMO, but he seems to have even less of a vision/message than Gillespie (Gillespie's message is about being pragmatic and spurring economic growth). All I know about Northam is he's a nice guy who is a doctor and also has a hobby horse about removing statues. This is why I put the race as a toss up. I'm sure Northam will do decently as governor even as someone like me who is voting for Gillespie, but he's just pretty bland as a candidate.

[Gass3268]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.

You have no idea what you are talking about, the polls nailed Virginia in 2016:



 

[Virginiá]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

To me, I think it really depends on who has the enthusiasm advantage here. Yes, these are kind of boring candidates (imo), and Northam doesn't really have a spark, but he's not that bad of a candidate. In the end, he's still been leading comfortably in pretty much every poll - polls that were accurate in 2016 when push came to shove. Combined with that, despite people constantly mentioning Gillespie 2014, this is not a favorable year for the GOP. Turnout dropped in 2014 below historical standards, and the wave environment helped him. If anyone would over-perform this year, it would probably be Northam, as we all know Democrats are very enthusiastic right now. The massive primary participation earlier this year is one more example (albeit maybe a weak one) of that.

I don't know, personally, I wouldn't be betting on the candidate who is losing in every poll in a year under a deeply unpopular Republican president - especially in a state that has a history of turning on the WH in-party.

[KingSweden]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

To me, I think it really depends on who has the enthusiasm advantage here. Yes, these are kind of boring candidates (imo), and Northam doesn't really have a spark, but he's not that bad of a candidate. In the end, he's still been leading comfortably in pretty much every poll - polls that were accurate in 2016 when push came to shove. Combined with that, despite people constantly mentioning Gillespie 2014, this is not a favorable year for the GOP. Turnout dropped in 2014 below historical standards, and the wave environment helped him. If anyone would over-perform this year, it would probably be Northam, as we all know Democrats are very enthusiastic right now. The massive primary participation earlier this year is one more example (albeit maybe a weak one) of that.

I don't know, personally, I wouldn't be betting on the candidate who is losing in every poll in a year under a deeply unpopular Republican president - especially in a state that has a history of turning on the WH in-party.

On that note, has Gillespie been ahead, or within the MoE, in more than what, one poll?

Still don't like how close this has become. I preferred Perriello, as much as that may surprise some of you.

[Keep cool-idge]

A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.

You have no idea what you are talking about, the polls nailed Virginia in 2016:



 

Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary

[Panhandle Progressive]

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's

Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

He's going to lose by about 5%, NOVA will destroy him with the incumbent orange monkey in office right now.

This.

[Keep cool-idge]

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's

Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

He's going to lose by about 5%, NOVA will destroy him with the incumbent orange monkey in office right now.

This.

Just you wait Gillespie is going to way outperform the polls even if he loses he going to do how he did in 2014.

[Virginiá]

Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary

You mean the VA polls taken around the time of the AH tape, or the August ones taken around the time of the Kahn drama? Why wouldn't the polls show a Clinton surge then? Do you think the race was exactly the same then as it was on election day? It's not like the election is the same every single day of the season.

Chances are, if the election was held during the AH tape controversy, she would have won by close to 10 points (or more) in Virginia.

[Keep cool-idge]

Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary

You mean the VA polls taken around the time of the AH tape, or the August ones taken around the time of the Kahn drama? Why wouldn't the polls show a Clinton surge then? Do you think the race was exactly the same then as it was on election day? It's not like the election is the same every single day of the season.

Chances are, if the election was held during the AH tape controversy, she would have won by close to 10 points (or more) in Virginia.

Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?

[heatcharger]

Still don't like how close this has become. I preferred Perriello, as much as that may surprise some of you.

A Democrat, even in a particularly good year, was most likely never going to win by 10-12 points in Virginia like that one stretch of polls may have suggested. Republicans always come home -- the key questions are always when and how much of them.

I also continue to reject the assertion that Perriello would've been a stronger candidate. Northam, afforded by his culturally Southern personality, was afforded a little bit of leeway on the Confederate statues issue, and even then he took some heat for it. Perriello on the other hand has seemed to leave his conservative background in the dust and has gone full-throttle social progressive, especially after Charlottesville. This isn't even mentioning the upper hand Gillespie would probably have with six-figure indys who typically break Dem in statewide races. Perriello's regional advantage also would not have won him as many votes as Northam is likely to in Eastern VA, as seen in numerous polls.

Chances are, if the election was held during the AH tape controversy, she would have won by close to 10 points (or more) in Virginia.

Also should be mentioned the Clinton campaign mostly abandoned Virginia (and Colorado) in August only to return in the last week before the election, which was a smart decision in retrospect.

[JonHawk]

Me personally, i consider this to a toss up. Alot of liberals here are seem overconfident as usual imo

[Mr. Smith]

McAuliffe had a Lean, and somehow only won by two against someone far less with it than Gillespie...and T-Mac had name recognition at that.

What does that say about a mere Tilt and relative obscurity?

[Virginiá]

Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?

But that was still basically during the AH tape controversy (if you're talking about around Oct 18-20th) - it's not like that whole ordeal's effects on Trump's electoral support only lasted a few days or a week, and if you remember that particular point in October was filled to the brim with Trump scandals that just kept stacking up. It was a very active October. I'm not even sure exactly what poll you're talking about, either. Quinnipiac was the last one I see in RCP's 2-way polls showing double digits for her, which was taken Oct 20th - 26th. Having one poll you think was absurd at the time, and then using that to say all the polls were wrong despite them clearly not being wrong, is kind of ridiculous.

The RCP average for the 2-way and 4-way in Virginia 2016 was very accurate. It was only off by 0.1% in the 2-way. Just because it was off in 2014 and to a lesser degree, in 2013, doesn't mean it's always wrong. Think about this, if you're always going to call the polls "fake" just because they were wrong in 2014, you're predictions really become based on nothing more than what you want to happen. That is not really a good way to go about this.

But, you know, to each their own. If you think all the polls are always wrong, there is nothing really to debate here. Your views on this race are locked in, with no way to challenge them, absent Gillespie massively imploding beyond any doubt (and even what you consider 'beyond any doubt' is ambiguous)

[Keep cool-idge]

Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?

But that was still basically during the AH tape controversy (if you're talking about around Oct 18-20th) - it's not like that whole ordeal's effects on Trump's electoral support only lasted a few days or a week, and if you remember that particular point in October was filled to the brim with Trump scandals that just kept stacking up. It was a very active October. I'm not even sure exactly what poll you're talking about, either. Quinnipiac was the last one I see in RCP's 2-way polls showing double digits for her, which was taken Oct 20th - 26th. Having one poll you think was absurd at the time, and then using that to say all the polls were wrong despite them clearly not being wrong, is kind of ridiculous.

The RCP average for the 2-way and 4-way in Virginia 2016 was very accurate. It was only off by 0.1% in the 2-way. Just because it was off in 2014 and to a lesser degree, in 2013, doesn't mean it's always wrong. Think about this, if you're always going to call the polls "fake" just because they were wrong in 2014, you're predictions really become based on nothing more than what you want to happen. That is not really a good way to go about this.

But, you know, to each their own. If you think all the polls are always wrong, there is nothing really to debate here. Your views on this race are locked in, with no way to challenge them, absent Gillespie massively imploding beyond any doubt (and even what you consider 'beyond any doubt' is ambiguous)

I never said northam can't win I have the race as toss up right but I honestly think ed is going to pull a upset but again the polls in 2014 never had a poll with Gillespie leading tied or less then 3 points behind the GOP thought the race was a lost cause while they dumped millions into New Hampshire and that race wasn't even that close.
Also not all polls are bad but State polls are 100% look at 2016 Pennsylvania or Michigan or Nevada or Wisconsin those polls were all junk.

[Blair]

I don't think a lot of people are saying that Gillespie will win, or that the polls are wrong (or at least I'm not) Just from what I've read, the polling, the ads etc I get the sense that the race could be going a lot better for Northam.

I know statewide races are different, and there's a possible danger in making it national (it's Virginia, not New York) but I don't know why Warren/Booker/Harris/Kaine etc aren't campaigning and why national democrats aren't making a lot of noise about this race.

[KingSweden]

I don't think a lot of people are saying that Gillespie will win, or that the polls are wrong (or at least I'm not) Just from what I've read, the polling, the ads etc I get the sense that the race could be going a lot better for Northam.

I know statewide races are different, and there's a possible danger in making it national (it's Virginia, not New York) but I don't know why Warren/Booker/Harris/Kaine etc aren't campaigning and why national democrats aren't making a lot of noise about this race.

Kaine at minimum

[Gass3268]

I don't think a lot of people are saying that Gillespie will win, or that the polls are wrong (or at least I'm not) Just from what I've read, the polling, the ads etc I get the sense that the race could be going a lot better for Northam.

I know statewide races are different, and there's a possible danger in making it national (it's Virginia, not New York) but I don't know why Warren/Booker/Harris/Kaine etc aren't campaigning and why national democrats aren't making a lot of noise about this race.

Kaine at minimum

I've heard talk that Obama will be campaigning in October for Northam and Murphy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Now Lean D. Used to be Tilt D, but now in the final stretch, Northam is starting to bring home the bacon, and get a lot of additional resources. People keep whining about how the polling was so viked up in several states throughout the country, and especially pointing to 2016, but if they actually bothered to look at the 2016 polls for Virginia, they would see that they were pretty on point, and like at least half the pollsters are still the same. 2014 was pretty wrong, but at least they still predicted the winner correctly (albeit barely), and really improved their accuracy in 2016. Plus, these polls really do pass the common sense test, and pretty much backup what most people are thinking, Lean D.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

[Dr. Arch]

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

Kaine is mega safe, imo.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

Kaine is mega safe, imo.

I'd agree with this if Stewart is the Republican nominee. Not as confident if it's Gillespie.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

Kaine is mega safe, imo.

I'd agree with this if Stewart is the Republican nominee. Not as confident if it's Gillespie.

Gillespie should will probably be finally dealt with in the coming weeks when he loses a second time.

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/29/terry-mcauliffe-fund-virginia-races-243308

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