VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Keep cool-idge]

Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.

[Blair]

Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.

Of course Northam's people are going to paint the picture of a competitive race. After seeing what happened last year when Hillary had a lead in the polls and everyone assuming her victory inevitable, why wouldn't they try to avoid any sense of complacency again? They're not going to come out and say "look at the strong lead we have" and jerk themselves off to that. They're well aware that saying such things would project complacency and possibly demotivate their base. If I was running the Northam campaign, I would even release internal polls showing me up only 1 or even tied. That's the best way to get your base anxious as hell.

There's an element of truth to this; they want every democratic group coming to help, and articles like this do a great deal. There's a reason Obama is going to Virginia rather than New Jersey.

It's not a stretch to say however that democrats are worried about this race; although it appears to be one of those campaigns where you can tell it's not going perfectly, but have no idea how to actually change that.

[UncleSam]

Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.

Articles from The Daily Beast are little more than propaganda for the progressive cause. In this case, the angle is that Northam is not progressive enough, hasn't consolidated the Bernie Sanders wing of the party and so is due to underperform (while remaining clear that he remains a prohibitive favorite if you read it carefully). In other words, a click-baity and self-contradictory article intended to perpetuate progressive talking points.

Northam is clearly ahead and he is clearly not ahead by 13. His spending advantage in September massively bolstered his chances and has forced a strategy change from Gillespie that is obviously a desperado play. Northam was never a sure thing to be elected and there are shades of Hillary Clinton here, but Hillary, frankly, would have won the election at most points in the fall, with perhaps only a few weeks around mid-late September and early November (when it was held) where she would have lost. Northam would win if the election were held today and is narrowing avenues for his opponent to win in the process, which is all you can do as a candidate. People change their minds and opinions of who to vote for very quickly and sometimes over things outside of your control, but Northam has managed to win the fundraising game and is thus piling on ad after ad targeting the same voters Gillespie has based his entire campaign around - moderates. If Gillespie tacks right then Northam will move in on right-leaners, and if he tacks left Northam will use the image he is crafting of Gillespie to nip that in the bud.

Don't get me wrong, Gillespie is very saavy and knows what he has to do to give himself the best possible chance. Just he never had the same fundraising level or support Northam did in this race, and is going to have to rely on a surge in base voter support or a Northam mistake to have a chance. I doubt even in the best case for Northam that it'll be more than a 5 or 7 point, however - Virginia is not that far gone for the GOP.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.

I doubt even in the best case for Northam that it'll be more than a 5 or 7 point, however - Virginia is not that far gone for the GOP.

I believe it is that far gone for the GOP, this fall specifically. I just don't see a path to Gillespie winning even if he had everything go perfectly for him between now and election day. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's, I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by at least 6-8% each.

[Holmes]

I remember last year's GOP "Hillary is ahead in Indiana and Missouri!!" internals.

Unless they release the full poll with methodology, I'm not going to believe it.

[SoLongAtlas]

Driving back to central Va tonight, I heard Gillespie's latest radio ad slamming Northam for prioritizing statue removal to the tune of "millions that could go to better schools, etc." He is going all in on making Northam look like some far left warrior when he is a moderate. This is all to play up the central Virginia older white vote as well as the undecided WWC. The ad itself was BS and full of near slanders.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ed Shillespie. Only 32 more days until he gets flushed.

mod note (10/06/2017): language

[Deblano]

I remember last year's GOP "Hillary is ahead in Indiana and Missouri!!" internals.

Unless they release the full poll with methodology, I'm not going to believe it.

I'm putting the race as Tilt-D at this rate (I think Northam will end up winning), but I haven't trusted a poll since Mark Warner vs. Ed Gillespie back in 2014.

What a crock of doo doo that was.

[erſatz-york]

Ed will win

[Panhandle Progressive]

Ed will win

Funniest comment I've read all day!

[Skill and Chance]

Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

[Gass3268]

Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

My guess is his polling shows he's struggling to get Stewart voters to commit to voting for him.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Any predictions on the voter turnout rate? To recap all GOV races since 2001:
2001 - 46.4% turnout - Warner won
2005 - 45% turnout - Kaine won
2009 - 40.4% turnout - McDonnell won
2013 - 43% turnout - McAuliffe won
My prediction is 47 to 48% turnout for 2017. 4 out of (the last) 5 for the Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

My guess is his polling shows he's struggling to get Stewart voters to commit to voting for him.

It sure looks like Gillespie is campaigning as if he thinks the 2016 Dem margins in the suburbs are baked in and the WaPo poll is close to the real state of the race (or, less likely, Northam has unusual rural VA strength).  He's looking for a Hail Mary with rural turnout, which, it should be noted, almost worked for Cuccinelli.  Still, he doesn't have the persona of Cuccinelli.  You would think the low-hanging fruit for him would be in NOVA.

[Young Conservative]

I do not think Gillespie will win (but it will be close), but imagine if he did win. I would love to see Atlas and media reactions to it.

[Skill and Chance]

I do not think Gillespie will win (but it will be close), but imagine if he did win. I would love to see Atlas and media reactions to it.

He's not to be taken lightly, no doubt.  I still think Northam will win by 3, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of Vogel (LG) or Adams (AG) sneaks through downballot with the top of the ticket that close.  The rev up the rural base strategy made both 2013 and 2016 closer than anyone expected.

[Mr. Smith]

What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.

[Maxwell]

I'd be very sad if Gillespie managed to win. But I don't think he will - whether he loses by 2 points or by 10, I think he'll lose.

[Skill and Chance]

What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.

Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

My guess is his polling shows he's struggling to get Stewart voters to commit to voting for him.

It sure looks like Gillespie is campaigning as if he thinks the 2016 Dem margins in the suburbs are baked in and the WaPo poll is close to the real state of the race (or, less likely, Northam has unusual rural VA strength).  He's looking for a Hail Mary with rural turnout, which, it should be noted, almost worked for Cuccinelli.  Still, he doesn't have the persona of Cuccinelli.  You would think the low-hanging fruit for him would be in NOVA.

Cuccinelli lost by 56,000 votes. And McAuliffe didn't match 2016 numbers in NoVa - he only won PW 52-44, much narrower than Clinton's 58-37 margin. He only won Loudoun 49-45, much narrower than Clinton's 55-38 margin. And in Fairfax, McAuliffe won 58-36 - nothing wrong with that margin, but it's narrower than Clinton's 64-29 margin.

[Virginiá]

Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   

You mean the president's party? Virginia's elections do not operate much differently than midterms, which have almost always swung towards the WH out-party. The added effect of VA's super low turnout off-off-year legislative elections means the party with the most enthusiasm tends to win out. In this case, Democrats stand to benefit a great deal if Trump is still unpopular in 2019. There are a number of GOP-held state Senate seats that will make excellent targets, and this time the party's base is fired up enough to strongly contest them, incumbent or not.

[heatcharger]

United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam.

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

[Mr.Phips]

What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.

Whoever wins, this could be a Pyrrhic victory either way.  The 2019 state legislative elections, particularly in the state senate, will determine who gets to draw the 2021 maps (assuming Anthony Kennedy doesn't decide to draw them himself, which looks like a significant possibility).  The off-cycle legislative elections usually go against the governor's party.   

I wouldn't say that at all.  It could actually be argued that being governor actually helps your party in the off-cycle.  These are the results for the most recent off year elections :

2015:. McAuliffe(D): D+1 in House, no change in Senate
2011:  McDonnell (R): R+8 in House, R+2 in Senate
2007:. Kaine(D): D+4 in House, D+4 in Senate

The last off year that really went against the governor's party was 1991 when Doug Wilder was very unpopular.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam.

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Yes! That's my boy Northam!

[Dr. Arch]

United Mine Workers of America has endorsed... Ralph Northam.

They withheld an endorsement in the 2012 and 2016 presidential races.

Big momentum heading into the last inches of the race.