VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Senator-elect Spark]

This race for Gov in Virginia is going to be shocking. I have no idea who's going to win it will be so competitive.

[Holmes]

This race for Gov in Virginia is going to be shocking. I have no idea who's going to win it will be so competitive.

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!

He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.

[SoLongAtlas]

This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!

He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.

244 precincts of 244 (100.00%) reporting
Candidate   Votes   Percent
Edward W. "Ed" Gillespie
Republican   18,046   47.87%
Corey A. Stewart
Republican   14,712   39.03%
Frank W. Wagner
Republican   4,940   13.10%

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Index.html

I don't know which Ffx precincts fit into the 10th but here is the link to results by precinct http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Governor.html

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!

He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.

244 precincts of 244 (100.00%) reporting
Candidate   Votes   Percent
Edward W. "Ed" Gillespie
Republican   18,046   47.87%
Corey A. Stewart
Republican   14,712   39.03%
Frank W. Wagner
Republican   4,940   13.10%

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Index.html

I don't know which Ffx precincts fit into the 10th but here is the link to results by precinct http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Governor.html

I mean just the Fairfax portion of VA-10. Not the entire county.

[SoLongAtlas]

Yeah saw that after I posted it. The second link has the Ffx precinct data. I can't find a map of which Ffx precincts are inside the 10th. VPAP used to have that map but it looks like they took it off.

This site has a highlighted map but it doesn't do precincts you would have to do an overlay https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/VA/10

[MT Treasurer]

Sabato moves VA-GOV from Tossup to Leans D

[Nyvin]

Northam had the largest percentage of support from urban precincts,  Stewart was largest in rural.

http://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/urban-suburban-rural-divide/

[Nyvin]

As a side note on this election:  The GOP's vote share coming from NoVA has gone down from 2016.   This is actually pretty bad for them because it shows the NoVA "Republicans" that voted against Trump might be turning into perma-Democrats.

Also it allows the more conservative rural parts of the party to be more dominant in the state party in a state that is becoming more left-wing/moderate as a whole.   This is seen by the tight race with Gillespie and Stewart.  Gillespie fell short in NoVA while Stewart was strong out west.

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

[Del Tachi]

As a side note on this election:  The GOP's vote share coming from NoVA has gone down from 2016.   This is actually pretty bad for them because it shows the NoVA "Republicans" that voted against Trump might be turning into perma-Democrats.

Also it allows the more conservative rural parts of the party to be more dominant in the state party in a state that is becoming more left-wing/moderate as a whole.   This is seen by the tight race with Gillespie and Stewart.  Gillespie fell short in NoVA while Stewart was strong out west.

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

Shhh...don't tell RINO Tom

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Don't read too much into these party primary comparison figures. People vote for the race they believe is competitive - which in this case ironically meant they helped the other race be more competitive instead. 

[PragmaticPopulist]

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.

[KingSweden]

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.

Note that the GOP could treat VA as a safe state because of that. Same thing happened in WA, honestly

[Nyvin]

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.

Note that the GOP could treat VA as a safe state because of that. Same thing happened in WA, honestly

How so?   Just wondering what you mean

[SoLongAtlas]

CS really racked up the rural counties, even Prince William (granted his home county). http://www.vpap.org/visuals/vamaps/number-of-voters/?election=8668 Proves he would lose in a landslide if he was the nom via pop count in rural vs. suburban/urban areas of VA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CS really racked up the rural counties, even Prince William (granted his home county). http://www.vpap.org/visuals/vamaps/number-of-voters/?election=8668 Proves he would lose in a landslide if he was the nom via pop count in rural vs. suburban/urban areas of VA.

Prince William is not a rural county.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Colors are flipped

My take on this race. Gillespie wins narrowly due to performing well in DC suburbs and Richmond suburbs, while doing exponentially better in Western VA. Thanks for all the love guys.

[Virginiá]

[...]

Colors are flipped

My take on this race. Gillespie wins narrowly due to performing well in DC suburbs and Richmond suburbs, while doing exponentially better in Western VA. Thanks for all the love guys.

1. A Republican president that is deeply unpopular in a leans Democratic state (mid-30s approvals in VA)
2. Said president is being investigated for possible obstruction of justice, and ties to Russia in terms of influencing the 2016 election
3. A hugely energized Democratic Party, with what seems to be a substantially unmotivated Republican base. I don't know how meaningful it is, but the GOP's primary vote count this week was horrific compared to Democrats
4. Since the 70s, the party in the White House has tended to lose the VA govs office, up until McAuliffe in 2013, which shouldn't be too surprising - there were unique circumstances, and the state had already begun shifting to Democrats, which gives them something of an edge.
5. An establishment GOP candidate that already lost a statewide race in 2014, and is now running again in what appears to be a very divided Republican electorate, which almost voted for a Confederacy-loving anti-establishment Trumpist. While Virginia as a whole leans towards certain kinds of candidates, it seems the VAGOP may have an additional enthusiasm issue if so many of their voters wanted someone else. Further, Northam seems like a good fit for Democrats, so that compounds the issue here.
6. This is a state where weakness among college graduates and upper-income voters will hurt more. Democrats have continued to make gains among white college graduates and upper-income voters, two groups that tend to have higher turnout during off years.
- When you compare the turnout of Post-grad and college grad voters in 2013 to 2016, you see that in 2013, these groups represented 7% more of VA's electorate. These are also the groups Trump is weighing Republicans down the most with.


... and you think the result will be a slim GOP win, which is about what you'd expect in a more neutral Virginia state election year? I'm just wondering if you've significantly minimized the effect Trump is having on GOP electoral prospects, or if you have some other kind of reasoning.

[Miles]

Miles, do you have larger versions of those beautiful maps?

DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR
REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR
DEMOCRATIC LT GOV
REPUBLICAN LT GOV
PARTY CHOICE

Roanoke City did a fair bit of re-precincting, so the precincts there are all colored by the municipal vote.

[Brittain33]

Until McAuliffe won, Virginia had a very long run of electing a governor of the opposite party of the president. McAuliffe bucked this trend because of the D trend in the state. Neither augurs well for Gillespie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a must win for Dems if they want to capture the House, Sarah Comstock must be defeated along with Gillespsie

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is a must win for Dems if they want to capture the House, Sarah Comstock must be defeated along with Gillespsie

Uh, this election is happening in 2017, Comstock isn't up for election until 2018. Please review an accurate elections calendar before posting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Okay, both Virginia elections are critical for Dems to win

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Certainly think Northam has the edge--not Safe Northam, or even Likely, but a very clear advantage for him. Would be very good for the party if we can sweep statewide again.

[Kamala]

How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?