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November 18, 2017, 04:30:55 pm
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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| | |-+  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 74879 times)
L.D. Smith, Aggie! It's Real Expenses Again
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« Reply #850 on: September 04, 2017, 10:41:47 am »
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I don't think there'll be much drama in this race on election night...

I think it will be fairly close with Northam winning later into the night.

I think it will be around Hillary's margin in 2016 give or take 1% or 2% on election night.

Sounds about right, probably flips over to D at 86 or 88% [which is also where it flipped for Obama] instead of 92%.
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« Reply #851 on: September 05, 2017, 12:33:44 pm »
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Gillespie came out in favor of Tom Cotton's plan to restrict LEGAL immigration as part of a DACA solution.



Does he realize Virginia isn't Arkansas?
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« Reply #852 on: September 05, 2017, 12:42:32 pm »
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I mean the Post is left-leaning, but this shows how strong Northam is honestly. Gillespie clearly has seen internal polling suggesting he is facing enthusiasm / approval / support gaps and has to make a move somewhere, so he is throwing out red meat for the base and hoping that left-leavers in NOVA don't notice / care.

Smart money says they will though and he loses enough moderates to take a fatal hit in Fairfax. Likely / lean D tbh
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« Reply #853 on: September 05, 2017, 08:30:10 pm »
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Gillespie came out in favor of Tom Cotton's plan to restrict LEGAL immigration as part of a DACA solution.



Does he realize Virginia isn't Arkansas?

Why does he even mention crime in a post about DACA? DACA enrollees pass a background check and have no criminal records...
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« Reply #854 on: September 05, 2017, 08:33:45 pm »
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I mean the Post is left-leaning, but this shows how strong Northam is honestly. Gillespie clearly has seen internal polling suggesting he is facing enthusiasm / approval / support gaps and has to make a move somewhere, so he is throwing out red meat for the base and hoping that left-leavers in NOVA don't notice / care.

Smart money says they will though and he loses enough moderates to take a fatal hit in Fairfax. Likely / lean D tbh

You raise a good point. If Gillespie is confident in his support from the base, he's not showing it wih the ads or policy positions he's releasing.
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« Reply #855 on: September 06, 2017, 11:38:39 am »
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Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.
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« Reply #856 on: September 06, 2017, 10:40:34 pm »
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Gillespie could still win parts of NOVA. He could win some of the ancestral Republicans that are still there and could win some Independents as well.

This race is Tilt D/Tossup. Gillespie is not Cuccinelli.
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« Reply #857 on: September 06, 2017, 10:45:33 pm »
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Gillespie could still win parts of NOVA. He could win some of the ancestral Republicans that are still there and could win some Independents as well.

This race is Tilt D/Tossup. Gillespie is not Cuccinelli.

I think Vogel being the LG pick could help Ed in NoVA.

However, the president is very unpopular, and this will hurt Gillespie regardless.

Gillespie has been in a "pick your poison" moment since he nearly got beaten by Stewart. He can either go through the barest motions of keeping Stewart/Trump voters in line, and risk alienating moderates in NoVA, or he can go relatively NeverTrump (as he was somewhat essentially until he became more neutral) and risk alienating Stewart voters and those lose by a comfortable margin. As someone who will likely vote for Gillespie, he has a very difficult choice at his hands that could easily doom his campaign either way.

I'd say Gillespie is trying to muddy the waters for now and hope for the best in November.
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"I do not like broccoli. And I haven't liked it since I was a little kid and my mother made me eat it. And I'm President of the United States and I'm not going to eat any more broccoli." - George H. W. Bush

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« Reply #858 on: September 07, 2017, 12:15:49 am »
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I'm feeling better now ever since Gillespie has started to move right. I think this could sink him in nova, and cause minimal change in rural areas. Back to Lean D.
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« Reply #859 on: September 07, 2017, 12:26:04 am »
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Gillespie could still win parts of NOVA. He could win some of the ancestral Republicans that are still there and could win some Independents as well.

Haha.
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« Reply #860 on: September 07, 2017, 10:55:03 am »
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Gillespie decided to attack the Washington Post in an official statement for some reason today:
This is an excellent strategy that historically has always worked for Republicans.
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« Reply #861 on: September 10, 2017, 08:39:21 am »
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Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.

Great point.
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« Reply #862 on: September 13, 2017, 08:27:17 pm »
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Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.

Great point.
yeah he done. his path was being a moderate swampy establishment type republican that could get enough votes out of nova combined with the more conservative/trumplican voters. its going to get real hard for a republican to win in Virginia unless they moderate for those nova suburbs
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Or maybe he is stupid and his voters are mostly stupid. can be both; just a distinct possibility worth thinking about.
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« Reply #863 on: September 13, 2017, 09:47:22 pm »
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Jennifer Rubin‏
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Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.

Great point.

Except that it isn't accurate ?
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« Reply #864 on: September 14, 2017, 06:47:40 pm »
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Jennifer Rubin‏
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Gillespie now want Confed statues to stay and Dreamers to go. Will get blown out in NO VA.

Great point.

Except that it isn't accurate ?
Lmao at the notion that electoral politics have anything to do with what is or is not accurate.
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« Reply #865 on: September 16, 2017, 01:40:56 pm »
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Northam has twice as much cash as Gillespie, after recovering from primary

Northam previously was down to Gillespie 2 to 1.

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In July and August, Northam raised $7.2 million, while Gillespie took in $3.7 million in the same period.

That left Northam, the sitting lieutenant governor, with $5.6 million in cash to Gillespie’s $2.6 million as of Aug. 31, according to data released Saturday by the non-profit Virginia Public Access Project.

Northam’s summer fundraising erases a 2-1 cash advantage that Gillespie held immediately after the June 13 primary. Northam spent most of his early money on the primary contest to defeat former congressman Tom Perriello for the Democratic nomination while Gillespie had conserved funds in his primary match against Corey A. Stewart.
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« Reply #866 on: September 17, 2017, 05:26:19 pm »
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Gillespie probably has the same chance of winning this race as Doug Jones in AL. Right now I think this race will be relatively close (with Northam still winning, obviously), but I wouldn't be surprised if Gillespie lost by 7-9 or so on election day.

IMO Fairfax and Herring are going to win fairly easily, even if Gillespie somehow wins the gubernatorial race by <0.5.
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« Reply #867 on: September 17, 2017, 08:09:12 pm »
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Gillespie probably has the same chance of winning this race as Doug Jones in AL. Right now I think this race will be relatively close (with Northam still winning, obviously), but I wouldn't be surprised if Gillespie lost by 7-9 or so on election day.

IMO Fairfax and Herring are going to win fairly easily, even if Gillespie somehow wins the gubernatorial race by <0.5.

Vogel is a strong candidate, I actually think she has the highest chance of winning out of the three GOPer's on the statewide ticket.
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« Reply #868 on: September 18, 2017, 11:51:38 am »
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Great ad from the RN campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-sfBAJ09bU
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« Reply #869 on: September 18, 2017, 11:56:50 am »
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Great ad from the RN campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-sfBAJ09bU

This is a pretty solid ad, but he needs to cut this into a 30-second spot if he hasn't already. The main reason Gillespie is keeping it close is because he's dominated the airwaves recently and his ads are pretty good -- most people probably would forget he's a Republican after watching them.

Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?
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« Reply #870 on: September 18, 2017, 01:32:33 pm »

Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?

Maybe they are waiting for an October bum rush?

Is Northam actually planning on going on air en masse, and also going negative at all? It really does make sense if he's waiting, since the limited effects ads have on voter choice tend to be short-lived, but it's also getting kind of close to where he'd want to start bombarding the airwaves.
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« Reply #871 on: September 18, 2017, 07:36:00 pm »
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Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?

Maybe they are waiting for an October bum rush?

Is Northam actually planning on going on air en masse, and also going negative at all? It really does make sense if he's waiting, since the limited effects ads have on voter choice tend to be short-lived, but it's also getting kind of close to where he'd want to start bombarding the airwaves.

Well, I understand Northam was strapped for cash immediately after the expensive primary, so he had to spend the summer bringing in a big fundraising haul while Gillespie was able to put up numerous ads relatively uncontested. Now he needs to cut a bunch of ads, both positive and negative because there's a lot of material on both sides of that coin.

I certainly hope you're right that they'll go all-out in October, especially in NOVA. We need high turnout in marginal HoD districts, because I fear even some of the most vulnerable Republicans might survive purely on retail politics.
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« Reply #872 on: September 18, 2017, 11:52:26 pm »
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VA House of Delegates: The newest excuse to not debate your opponent? "They called me 'Bigoted Bob' Sad" I'm not joking. http://www.fauquier.com/prince_william_times/news/conservative-stalwart-bob-marshall-won-t-debate-his-transgender-challenger/article_e0af2790-99b2-11e7-9610-7bcee4af5d7c.html
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'18 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (10/9: AZ: Lean R --> Strong Lean R)
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'18 House Rating: Lean R (11/7: Strong Lean R -> Lean R)
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« Reply #873 on: September 20, 2017, 07:39:14 am »
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Link to last night's debate (full length) video https://www.c-span.org/video/?434272-1/virgina-gubernatorial-debate
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« Reply #874 on: September 20, 2017, 01:48:13 pm »
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Debate Synopsis Article says no game-changer moment occured: http://wamu.org/story/17/09/20/five-takeaways-virginia-gubernatorial-debate/
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'18 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (10/9: AZ: Lean R --> Strong Lean R)
'17/'18 Senate Ratings: http://tinyurl.com/yb7sxe9a (11/14: AL: Lean R --> Toss-Up)
'18 House Rating: Lean R (11/7: Strong Lean R -> Lean R)
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