VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 159860 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #850 on: September 16, 2017, 01:40:56 PM »

Northam has twice as much cash as Gillespie, after recovering from primary

Northam previously was down to Gillespie 2 to 1.

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #851 on: September 17, 2017, 08:09:12 PM »

Gillespie probably has the same chance of winning this race as Doug Jones in AL. Right now I think this race will be relatively close (with Northam still winning, obviously), but I wouldn't be surprised if Gillespie lost by 7-9 or so on election day.

IMO Fairfax and Herring are going to win fairly easily, even if Gillespie somehow wins the gubernatorial race by <0.5.

Vogel is a strong candidate, I actually think she has the highest chance of winning out of the three GOPer's on the statewide ticket.
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SoLongAtlas
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« Reply #852 on: September 18, 2017, 11:51:38 AM »

Great ad from the RN campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-sfBAJ09bU
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heatcharger
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« Reply #853 on: September 18, 2017, 11:56:50 AM »


This is a pretty solid ad, but he needs to cut this into a 30-second spot if he hasn't already. The main reason Gillespie is keeping it close is because he's dominated the airwaves recently and his ads are pretty good -- most people probably would forget he's a Republican after watching them.

Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #854 on: September 18, 2017, 01:32:33 PM »

Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?

Maybe they are waiting for an October bum rush?

Is Northam actually planning on going on air en masse, and also going negative at all? It really does make sense if he's waiting, since the limited effects ads have on voter choice tend to be short-lived, but it's also getting kind of close to where he'd want to start bombarding the airwaves.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #855 on: September 18, 2017, 07:36:00 PM »

Also, can we please get Obama to campaign in NOVA, preferably when I have time to go?

Maybe they are waiting for an October bum rush?

Is Northam actually planning on going on air en masse, and also going negative at all? It really does make sense if he's waiting, since the limited effects ads have on voter choice tend to be short-lived, but it's also getting kind of close to where he'd want to start bombarding the airwaves.

Well, I understand Northam was strapped for cash immediately after the expensive primary, so he had to spend the summer bringing in a big fundraising haul while Gillespie was able to put up numerous ads relatively uncontested. Now he needs to cut a bunch of ads, both positive and negative because there's a lot of material on both sides of that coin.

I certainly hope you're right that they'll go all-out in October, especially in NOVA. We need high turnout in marginal HoD districts, because I fear even some of the most vulnerable Republicans might survive purely on retail politics.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #856 on: September 18, 2017, 11:52:26 PM »

VA House of Delegates: The newest excuse to not debate your opponent? "They called me 'Bigoted Bob' Sad" I'm not joking. http://www.fauquier.com/prince_william_times/news/conservative-stalwart-bob-marshall-won-t-debate-his-transgender-challenger/article_e0af2790-99b2-11e7-9610-7bcee4af5d7c.html
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SoLongAtlas
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« Reply #857 on: September 20, 2017, 07:39:14 AM »

Link to last night's debate (full length) video https://www.c-span.org/video/?434272-1/virgina-gubernatorial-debate
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #858 on: September 20, 2017, 01:48:13 PM »

Debate Synopsis Article says no game-changer moment occured: http://wamu.org/story/17/09/20/five-takeaways-virginia-gubernatorial-debate/
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #859 on: September 20, 2017, 04:13:07 PM »

Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #860 on: September 20, 2017, 04:14:42 PM »

Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272

What was his reason in 2014?

I assume it wasn’t due to same last names Smiley
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #861 on: September 20, 2017, 06:44:12 PM »

Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272

I'm more curious about Jim Webb's endorsement at this point.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #862 on: September 20, 2017, 09:12:23 PM »

Trump's penchant for nicknames has now infected the Ralph Northam campaign -
 meet ENRON ED
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Frodo
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« Reply #863 on: September 20, 2017, 11:12:46 PM »

Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272

What was his reason in 2014?

I assume it wasn’t due to same last names Smiley

John and Mark are friends.  It's as simple as that. 
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heatcharger
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« Reply #864 on: September 22, 2017, 10:16:57 AM »

Northam made some big ad buys last week:

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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #865 on: September 22, 2017, 04:07:18 PM »

Sealing the deal.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #866 on: September 25, 2017, 05:21:42 PM »


Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #867 on: September 27, 2017, 10:53:02 AM »

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems
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« Reply #868 on: September 27, 2017, 11:15:52 AM »

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #869 on: September 27, 2017, 12:05:03 PM »

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #870 on: September 27, 2017, 12:26:39 PM »

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's
Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #871 on: September 27, 2017, 12:30:40 PM »

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's
Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

He's going to lose by about 5%, NOVA will destroy him with the incumbent orange monkey in office right now.
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Blair
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« Reply #872 on: September 27, 2017, 12:31:56 PM »

https://medium.com/@brendanlilly/heads-up-an-impending-disaster-in-virginia-99a67afaa8a4

Here's the link to the article; which basically says that Northam's campaign has absolutely no message beyond being a 'nice guy who's a doctor' and that he's getting hammered over his record at the state development agency. I did think that at least Perriello had some fight in the primary (and had some decent campaign ads) whilst Northam's seemed to be 'I worked with X democratic interest group'.

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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #873 on: September 27, 2017, 01:15:17 PM »

https://medium.com/@brendanlilly/heads-up-an-impending-disaster-in-virginia-99a67afaa8a4

Here's the link to the article; which basically says that Northam's campaign has absolutely no message beyond being a 'nice guy who's a doctor' and that he's getting hammered over his record at the state development agency. I did think that at least Perriello had some fight in the primary (and had some decent campaign ads) whilst Northam's seemed to be 'I worked with X democratic interest group'.

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I was talking to miles about the race he told me that both candidates suck mainly cause northam has no message unless you count him attacking Gillespie to trump I told him my prediction with a 0.3% win for Gillespie he sort of laughed about but yesterday he messaged me telling me that I should have listened to you again coming from someone who lives in Virginia.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #874 on: September 27, 2017, 01:21:38 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if Northam blew this. It was obvious in the primary this guy was bland and had no actual message.
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