VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 159901 times)
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #900 on: September 29, 2017, 05:30:37 PM »

Here we go another post from a newspaper saying northam is doing awful with people outside the population centers http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/worried-the-dems-are-ignoring-rural-virginia-local-party-chairman/article_29569b50-2686-5ed7-a0f9-acf939902014.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

This is why Gillespie is going to win by 0.3 points.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #901 on: September 29, 2017, 05:37:59 PM »


Ehhh... Clinton also did unprecedentedly awful outside the metro areas.  Didn't matter a bit.  It's almost inevitable that VA-09 (and neighboring districts like KY-05 and WV-03) will be the GOP's answer to NY-15 and CA-13 within 20 years.  I don't expect it to change the statewide Dem edge in VA at all.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #902 on: September 29, 2017, 09:52:10 PM »


Ehhh... Clinton also did unprecedentedly awful outside the metro areas. Didn't matter a bit. I don't expect it to change the statewide Dem edge in VA at all.

This. Strong D outcome this year. The only major statewide election (excluding LTGOV & AG) won by Republicans since 2006 was when Bob McDonnell won the governorship. This year won't be the second. Wink
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Kevin
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« Reply #903 on: October 02, 2017, 03:12:01 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2017, 02:36:47 PM by Kevin »

I didn't see this posted anywhere else but both Gillespie and Vogel have earned the powerful NOVA Chamber of Commerce endorsement.

http://www.insidenova.com/news/n-va-chamber-of-commerce-endorses-gillespie-vogel-herring-in/article_01b0a994-a536-11e7-8ba0-4f82a7a7f47f.html

Before everyone shouts it down as a "GOP hack operation" they aren't entirely biased as they have endorsed AG Herring's reelection effort and supported all 3 Statewide Dems last time, as well as a number of local/state leg Def candidates.

I personally felt up until few days ago that Northam had a slight upper hand(and he might still) but I'm seeing an increasing possibility that he might blow this since alot of influential statewide organizations that usually side with the winner are picking Gillespie over him.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #904 on: October 02, 2017, 11:55:14 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2017, 11:59:44 AM by Dwarven Dragon »

Ultimately there is little to no evidence that the race has changed from where it started: Northam up by a few points. If the final RCP average shows Northam up by 1 or 2, I'd be inclined to give it to Gillespie since Undecided voters broke R in 2013, 2014, and 2016 (Hillary getting <50% was a surprise). But we're not seeing that yet - Northam is currently up 4 in that average, and it has been remarkably stable for months.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #905 on: October 02, 2017, 10:03:04 PM »

Ultimately there is little to no evidence that the race has changed from where it started: Northam up by a few points. If the final RCP average shows Northam up by 1 or 2, I'd be inclined to give it to Gillespie since Undecided voters broke R in 2013, 2014, and 2016 (Hillary getting <50% was a surprise). But we're not seeing that yet - Northam is currently up 4 in that average, and it has been remarkably stable for months.

That's because Gillespie has done nothing, absolutely nothing to change the dynamic in his favor. Almost running like he wants to lose this race. Northam's win will ensure Democratic governors have been in office 16 of the last 20 years by the time he leaves office. Even if Northam were to end up being a mediocre moderate while in office, I'd take him over Gillespie everytime. Wink
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #906 on: October 03, 2017, 12:03:14 AM »

Prediction:

Northam + 6
House of delegates: +8 dem

I think Gillepsie has been running a better campaign so he will overperform the house of delegates. I could see Northam doing worse than +6, but pretty sure house of delegates will be at least +8 dem.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #907 on: October 03, 2017, 01:49:34 PM »

Honestly, I've been thinking that a Northam win of +5 - +6 would actually be pretty underwhelming, all things considered. I know it's a pretty standard margin prediction for Virginia, but Democrats like Kaine and Warner were picking up similar margins back in the early-mid 2000s. This was when the state was more Republican-leaning. On top of this, the Democratic Party's base is exceptionally fired up under an incumbent Republican president who is deeply unpopular not only in Virginia, nationally as well. With this in mind, a Democratic candidate really should be able to break double-digits without too much of a sweat.

That being said, I think I might be rather disappointed if Democrats don't score big this cycle, because most of what we know about the VA political environment suggests they should.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #908 on: October 03, 2017, 02:53:46 PM »

Honestly, I've been thinking that a Northam win of +5 - +6 would actually be pretty underwhelming, all things considered. I know it's a pretty standard margin prediction for Virginia, but Democrats like Kaine and Warner were picking up similar margins back in the early-mid 2000s. This was when the state was more Republican-leaning. On top of this, the Democratic Party's base is exceptionally fired up under an incumbent Republican president who is deeply unpopular not only in Virginia, nationally as well. With this in mind, a Democratic candidate really should be able to break double-digits without too much of a sweat.

That being said, I think I might be rather disappointed if Democrats don't score big this cycle, because most of what we know about the VA political environment suggests they should.

The last few elections suggest that Republicans have a solid floor of 46% (or 45% with a strong third party).  Until/Unless Virginia Beach County and Chesterfield county start voting consistently D, that's not going to meaningfully change. The rural constituencies that voted for Warner in 2001 and Kaine in 2005 are Solid R now.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #909 on: October 03, 2017, 03:03:56 PM »

It's not to say that Democrats should be winning back those lost rural voters, but more that they used to over-perform their presidential performance, and now they are mostly breaking even, give or take. Also, as I noted, this isn't just a normal election year. This is really the best environment a VA Democrat could ask to run in.

Though, I guess this could be too simplistic of a view.
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SoLongAtlas
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« Reply #910 on: October 04, 2017, 10:09:34 AM »

Latest mailers the VA GOP is sending out https://twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/915390502337482753

Northam wants to "erase history" and "make life easier for illegals" yada yada
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #911 on: October 04, 2017, 12:29:12 PM »

If this mailer is what's needed to get Loudoun and Prince William to vote Gillespie, so be it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #912 on: October 04, 2017, 05:12:00 PM »

If this mailer is what's needed to get Loudoun and Prince William to vote Gillespie, so be it.

Good to know you support racism.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #913 on: October 04, 2017, 10:01:29 PM »

If this mailer is what's needed to get Loudoun and Prince William to vote Gillespie, so be it.

It will absolutely have the opposite effect. NoVA voters won't fall for that crap. Gillespie is grasping at straws in his final month of campaigning. VA is much more diverse than the 'good ole boys' of yesteryear. NO TRACTION FOR GRASPING AT STRAWS GILLESPIE.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #914 on: October 05, 2017, 06:15:52 PM »

I used to think Gillespie was OK, but he has shown his real self over the past couple of months. He is so fake, and "fakely moderate" that it is nearly unbearable for me to even hear him anymore. I think people, and especially moderates in NOVA, are starting to see through him. That's probably why Northam is pulling ahead now. That, and a lot of undecideds coming to Northam, and big $$$ for him. I can't wait for this little sh!t to get defeated again next month.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #915 on: October 05, 2017, 10:03:49 PM »

Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #916 on: October 05, 2017, 10:10:29 PM »

Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"



lol, what
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Holmes
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« Reply #917 on: October 05, 2017, 10:22:20 PM »

Just what Gillespie needs!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #918 on: October 05, 2017, 10:22:20 PM »

Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"



lol, what

I don't think Gillespie really wanted his dog whistle to get picked up by Trump's bullhorn... but maybe if we're lucky Ralph will get a "nickname"
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #919 on: October 05, 2017, 10:55:35 PM »

Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"


Who asked this idiot to get involved? Luckily he is a toxic figure in the area Gillespie needs most.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #920 on: October 06, 2017, 02:15:46 AM »

I used to think Gillespie was OK, but he has shown his real self over the past couple of months. He is so fake, and "fakely moderate" that it is nearly unbearable for me to even hear him anymore. I think people, and especially moderates in NOVA, are starting to see through him. That's probably why Northam is pulling ahead now. That, and a lot of undecideds coming to Northam, and big $$$ for him. I can't wait for this little sh!t to get defeated again next month.

Gillespie's real self?  been MIA for a long time.  It's embarrising.  Today in my mailbox I got a flyer from him talking about the evils of "restoring rights of violent criminals"  and somehow ex-felons voting is "dangerous." lol   It's pure cynical capitualtion to this weird idea he seems to have that a Trump/Stewart approach will win him the governorship, no way he believes this stuff he's putting out there.
I think he's managed to get me to vote libertarian again this time.
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henster
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« Reply #921 on: October 06, 2017, 10:57:00 AM »

Gillespie seems to be throwing whatever at the wall and seeing what sticks sanctuary cities, MS-13, confederate statues. Doesn't seem to be really reaching out to swing voters just stoking enough fear to get the nativist base out.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #922 on: October 06, 2017, 11:49:09 AM »

Northam's using this tweet as a fundraising tool.
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Deblano
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« Reply #923 on: October 06, 2017, 11:56:43 AM »

Trump just tweeted:

"Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities. Vote Ed Gillespie!"



Kiss of Death.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #924 on: October 06, 2017, 01:28:55 PM »

I literally predicted yesterday in the WaPo poll thread that Gillespie would abandon his previous strategy and tack right on confederate monuments.

I'm a bit surprised everyone here is either surprised or thinks this is a poor strategy. Running as a moderate hero works when you're ahead in money and can define your opponent. Once your opponent has a money advantage, however, people who are disinclined to like candidates from your party will 'see through you' (see: bagel's post a few posts back) and vote for your opponent anyway.

So of course Gillespie tacked right, he needs Stewart voters and right-wingers to show up in spades since he feels that any opening he might've had two months ago with left-leaning voters has been totally shut down by Northam's spending advantage over the last month or so - indeed, if I had to guess I'd bet that Gillespie and co. are really wishing they had spent more energy fundraising through August, and feel like they blew through their funds way prematurely.

Obviously all of this is great news for Northam since all he needs to have happen now is left-leaning voters show up in a midterm where they hate the president, which historically has been an excellent bet. Gillespie is probably hoping he will get a revival of grassroots support over October which, combined with a late spending and ad push to make one last token effort towards right-leaning moderates, might cobble together a large enough coalition in a low-turnout election.

I don't think the strategy is bad so much as the situation, basically. Northam played this one well and deserves a lot of credit - he was getting second-guessed right through August for his refusal to blow through funds and a relative lack of on-the-ground campaigning, but he read the state of the race well and positioned himself to basically just have to not make a monumental blunder that turns off left-leaners in the last week or two of the race.

Basically I predict that Gillespie will spend the next week or two rallying his base and fundraising while Northam buries him with ads in NOVA and The Hampton Roads areas, then Gillespie will make one last attempt to appeal to moderates (and in particular libertarians) over the final stretch. If Stewart and Trump don't actively endorse him in the next week or so I think it's a death knell for Gillespie because it'll mean his base doesn't care, and even if that happens if the final polls don't turn towards him a bit (indicating leaners coming back to him) he's finished a well.

Likely D
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