VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Keep cool-idge]

No idea who this pollster is but.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

[Dr. Arch]

No idea who this pollster is but.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

IF it's even legit, September 24-28... that was two weeks ago.

[Holmes]

No idea who this pollster is but.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Uh.

[UncleSam]

I believe that Gillespie could be at a 2 point deficit among Likely voters in a favorable sample (ie one where he does better than the true population mean). The margin of error of this poll overlaps with those from more reliable (as in all other) pollsters.

That being said this is probably an internal of some kind or methodologically inaccurate due to various causes. It's hard to believe that Gillespie is actually within a few points right now (5 or 6 is probably the true mean of polling difference).

The question will be how many unlikely voters and those unwilling to state a preference break for Gillespie at the end. I'll bet it'll be a disappointing number as of now.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Late Deciders broke Republican in 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016, so I'd expect them to break republican again. Of course, the exact margin republicans get among Late Deciders matters.

[Keep cool-idge]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EdWGillespie/status/918612254106505217
Mike pence to campaign with Gillespie October 14th.

[Panhandle Progressive]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EdWGillespie/status/918612254106505217
Mike pence to campaign with Gillespie October 14th.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/354968-obama-to-campaign-with-dem-va-governor-candidate

I'd take this one all day every day!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Late Deciders broke Republican in 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016, so I'd expect them to break republican again. Of course, the exact margin republicans get among Late Deciders matters.

No, they did not in 2008 and 2012, if you're basing it off RCP. Democrats overperformed anywhere from 2-5 points in Presidential and Senate races.

I really don't understand this silly idea that "since Gillespie and other Republicans overperformed in off-years in the Obama era, he/they'll do it again!" Obama almost inarguably drove GOP turnout and enthusiasm in those off-years. Now we have Trump. Democrats overperformed in the last gubernatorial race under a Republican President. I guess we'll see here in just 3.5 weeks!

Using exit polling.

[heatcharger]

Just voted like an hour ago:



I voted for Northam, Fairfax, and Herring for all roughly the same reasons. I strongly approve of how Governor McAuliffe is handling his job, and I would like to see 4 more years of his policies. Seeing how democracy has been deteriorated in a similar state, NC, under a unified GOP government also makes it very hard for me to support any statewide Republicans.

I have to give credit to Jim LeMunyon for making me actually consider my HD-67 vote. He's decent for a Republican, and I'd even say he's excellent on transportation issues, which are of utmost importance for me. Too bad for him that he's a vote to enable the garbage VA GOP HoD, which is totally unacceptable. I also trust that Delaney will be solid on transportation as well. Plus she advocates for the proliferation of 3D-printers, so I had no qualms voting for her.

[MAINEiac4434]

Identical to my ticket were I Virginian

[Holmes]

Just voted like an hour ago:



I voted for Northam, Fairfax, and Herring for all roughly the same reasons. I strongly approve of how Governor McAuliffe is handling his job, and I would like to see 4 more years of his policies. Seeing how democracy has been deteriorated in a similar state, NC, under a unified GOP government also makes it very hard for me to support any statewide Republicans.

I have to give credit to Jim LeMunyon for making me actually consider my HD-67 vote. He's decent for a Republican, and I'd even say he's excellent on transportation issues, which are of utmost importance for me. Too bad for him that he's a vote to enable the garbage VA GOP HoD, which is totally unacceptable. I also trust that Delaney will be solid on transportation as well. Plus she advocates for the proliferation of 3D-printers, so I had no qualms voting for her.

Is candidate order randomized on ballots? Very interesting how all Democrats got placed at the top for each race on your ballot.

[Virginiá]

Identical to my ticket were I Virginian

ditto

[heatcharger]

Is candidate order randomized on ballots? Very interesting how all Democrats got placed at the top for each race on your ballot.

Nope. I saw somewhere that it's based on which party filed for the election first or something like that, although each county has their own procedures for candidate ranking.

Comstock should just run for Senate. Losing a statewide race is less embarrassing than losing a House seat you've held for a while.

I don't really buy the numbers from that PPP poll for Comstock. Yes, she is probably trailing a Generic D at this point, and yes, she is most likely one of the first Republicans to go down in a Dem wave, but she is not nearly as unpopular as that poll makes it seem, in my opinion. Also she's only a two-termer in the House, and who knows if she has enough clout in NoVA to overpower Stewart, who is the likely 2018 R nominee at this point.

Also I just saw a Gillespie and Northam ad back-to-back on this Nats game I'm watching. Sadly I would say Gillespie talking about cutting taxes is better than Northam pointing out that Gillespie wants abortion banned, at least for the demographic most likely watching this game.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'm not sure if anyone here is familiar with McLean, but I go there every weekend, and all I see in the outskirts of the downtown area (the VA-10 portion of McLean) are Gillespie/Adams signs, and back during the presidential election, I saw no Trump signs there. I know yard signs aren't good indicators, but it tells me that these upscale suburban voters are differentiating Gillespie from Trump.

I'm not that familiar with the political geography of Fairfax County, so maybe that's just a traditionally GOP area.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

Because Tom Perez and NARAL go around telling everyone that promoting abortion is what gets dems out to the polls. Of course, if they would actually look at the data, they'd find that Marist found that at least 40% of dems are to the right of the 2016 democratic platform on abortion, or that the Public Religion Research Institute found that just 36% of dems view abortion as a Critical Issue. But as 2016 showed us, Dems would rather listen to Lawrence O'Donnell brag about how awesomely liberal the country is than bother to actually learn what's really going on.

[heatcharger]

Ignoring Wulfric's usual drivel, the ad is fine in a vacuum. NoVA is a pro-choice area, and it's worth trying to turnout liberal women who don't usually vote in non-presidential elections. The problem it's a bad choice for a baseball game considering the demographics.

Idk, I see different ads from Northam when I'm down in Charlottesville, but I don't watch much cable television so most of my ad viewing comes from watching sporting events.

I'm not sure if anyone here is familiar with McLean, but I go there every weekend, and all I see in the outskirts of the downtown area (the VA-10 portion of McLean) are Gillespie/Adams signs, and back during the presidential election, I saw no Trump signs there. I know yard signs aren't good indicators, but it tells me that these upscale suburban voters are differentiating Gillespie from Trump.

I'm not that familiar with the political geography of Fairfax County, so maybe that's just a traditionally GOP area.

In the somewhat distant past, the McLean and Langley areas were a GOP stronghold. Now, it is far from it, but there are inevitably going to be a lot of Gillespie/Clinton/Gillespie voters in upscale suburbs. Trump was an aberration of epic proportions, and justifying a Trump yard sign was/is much more difficult than one for Gillespie, Comstock, Romney, etc.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just voted like an hour ago:



I voted for Northam, Fairfax, and Herring for all roughly the same reasons. I strongly approve of how Governor McAuliffe is handling his job, and I would like to see 4 more years of his policies. Seeing how democracy has been deteriorated in a similar state, NC, under a unified GOP government also makes it very hard for me to support any statewide Republicans.

I have to give credit to Jim LeMunyon for making me actually consider my HD-67 vote. He's decent for a Republican, and I'd even say he's excellent on transportation issues, which are of utmost importance for me. Too bad for him that he's a vote to enable the garbage VA GOP HoD, which is totally unacceptable. I also trust that Delaney will be solid on transportation as well. Plus she advocates for the proliferation of 3D-printers, so I had no qualms voting for her.

Thank you for your vote, you did good my friend!

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

because it's Ralph Northam. This issue is his baby, so to speak.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

because it's Ralph Northam. This issue is his Tom Perez's baby, so to speak.

FTFY

[henster]

Where are the ads hitting Gillespie on his awful tax plan? Forget abortion it’s basically Brownback’s plan and now he wants to bring it to VA.

[erſatz-york]

Ed will win by 2 points or more

[Mr. Smith]

Where are the ads hitting Gillespie on his awful tax plan? Forget abortion it’s basically Brownback’s plan and now he wants to bring it to VA.

It's out of the Anthony Brown playbook of course.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Where are the ads hitting Gillespie on his awful tax plan? Forget abortion it’s basically Brownback’s plan and now he wants to bring it to VA.

It's out of the Anthony Brown playbook of course.

Did you not get the memo that abortion is the most important issue facing adult Virginians today? /sarc

According to Tom Perez, who controls all, that statement isn't sarcasm at all.

[Holmes]

Good lord, you're reaching jfern levels with your Tom Perez obsession.

[Gass3268]

Obama is coming to Richmond!

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