VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Mr. Smith]

Obama is coming to Richmond!

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Obama was at it for Bruce Failey, Anthony Brown [another harmless, moderate Lt. Gov who was supposed to walk-in], and lastly, Hillary Clinton....not a good record. Pretty obvious he can't transfer the juju.

[Dr. Arch]

Obama is coming to Richmond!

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Obama was at it for Bruce Failey, Anthony Brown [another harmless, moderate Lt. Gov who was supposed to walk-in], and lastly, Hillary Clinton....not a good record. Pretty obvious he can't transfer the juju.

To be fair, Northam appears to be a much better candidate than the aforementioned.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obama is coming to Richmond!

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Obama was at it for Bruce Failey, Anthony Brown [another harmless, moderate Lt. Gov who was supposed to walk-in], and lastly, Hillary Clinton....not a good record. Pretty obvious he can't transfer the juju.

To be fair, Northam appears to be a much better candidate than the aforementioned.

Obama's rally with Hassan arguably got her over the line.

That race was so close you could literally blame the outcome on anything you like.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM

Oh, please. I know you're disappointed that I don't support Northam, but if you seriously think a random YouTube video is going the change the way I think.....

[JonHawk]

If Northam ends up winning by only a point or 2.. would be pretty embarrassing for him.

[Oryxslayer]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

Considering the last Monmouth poll had Northan+5, a 6+ swing to the right is unlikely, especially since nothing notable happened in the past two weeks really. Gillespie certainly could gain ground though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM

Oh, please. I know you're disappointed that I don't support Northam, but if you seriously think a random YouTube video is going the change the way I think.....

I don't particularly care who you support since you're a Minnesotan and thus cannot vote in the race.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Wtf why would he focus on abortion over something like education or transportation in NOVA

because it's Ralph Northam. This issue is his Tom Perez's baby, so to speak.

FTFY

No, now it makes literally zero sense.

[Holmes]

Every election ever in the history of forever.

Wulfric: I support the Democrat

Democrat: *somehing supportive of abortion*

Wulfric: I support the Republican.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Every election ever in the history of forever.

Wulfric: I support the Democrat

Democrat: *somehing supportive of abortion*

Wulfric: I support the Republican.

Uh, how do you explain my endorsement of Doug Jones for Senate then? (Sure, I criticized him over what he said about Abortion, but I'm still endorsing him in that race.) Or how about the fact that I endorsed a total of 12 pro-choice democrats in the 2016 senate elections, and 6 pro-choice democrats in the 2016 gubernatorial races? Or how about the fact that I endorsed Gillespie early on in this race, before #MelloGate ever happened?

[Devout Centrist]

Every election ever in the history of forever.

Wulfric: I support the Democrat

Democrat: *somehing supportive of abortion*

Wulfric: I support the Republican.

Uh, how do you explain my endorsement of Doug Jones for Senate then?

I will pay you never to discuss politics again.

[super6646]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.

But in the most recent Senate race, Warner got warned.

[Keep cool-idge]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.

But in the most recent Senate race, Warner got warned.

Don't forget 2013 as well McAuliffe in the RCP Average was up by 6 in the no third party polls and up by 6.7 with third party's https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html

Won by only 2.5 points

[Virginiá]

Don't forget 2013 as well McAuliffe in the RCP Average was up by 6 in the no third party polls and up by 6.7 with third party's https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html

Won by only 2.5 points

I think you are missing the point of SoC's post. He was musing whether the candidate in Virginia that over-performs their polling is by default Republicans, or by default the opposition party (eg the party not holding the White House). It is a long-standing trend that the party not holding the White House tends to be more enthusiastic about voting and the party holding the WH tends to have its enthusiasm (and thus turnout) dampened. This is compounded when the incumbent WH president is unpopular and controversial, leading to an even more energetic opposition party. If this trend were to hold, then Northam would be expected to over-perform his polls.

We'll just have to see how this plays out.

[Holmes]

Yeah but McAuliffe underperformed the polls so

[MAINEiac4434]

Putting Wulric on ignore was the greatest decision of my life.

[SoLongAtlas]

WaPo piece on the latest attack ads that spin the facts https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/16/in-the-virginias-governors-race-four-pinocchio-attack-ads-on-both-sides/?utm_term=.93b8c4c94328

Gillespie's trick with Norment was especially dirty but it might be effective. I know it has many people downstate labelling Northam as a proponent of crime, no-show Northam, etc. Typical smear job for the low-info voters to drive up turnout. PW and Ffx won't fall for that but off year gubernatorials always have low turnout. I got a Northam donation mailer last night, his last one, that said it was a tie 42-42. I think that is accurate and not spin. This will be a close race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[boske94]

New MONMOUTH poll: Gillespie 48% - Northam 47%.
https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/920333715384942592

September was Northam 49 - Gillespie 44

[Keep cool-idge]

To everyone making fun of me saying that Gillespie would win how do you feel now?