VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 159871 times)
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #1025 on: October 17, 2017, 12:09:27 PM »
« edited: October 17, 2017, 12:13:14 PM by Not_Madigan »

>Monmouth

Look the race has been tightening but I doubt Gillespie is leading, I won't throw out this poll but most are showing a narrow Northam lead.  (I am one of the people saying Gillespie will pull it off btw)
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1026 on: October 17, 2017, 12:11:20 PM »

To everyone making fun of me saying that Gillespie would win how do you feel now?
I made this prediction make on September 11th
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

100% stand by it now.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1027 on: October 17, 2017, 12:13:12 PM »

Northam will win and Trump/Gillespie will go on a screed about how the blacks in Richmond/Hampton Road cheated. End of story.
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Skunk
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« Reply #1028 on: October 17, 2017, 12:14:57 PM »

To everyone making fun of me saying that Gillespie would win how do you feel now?

He won one poll with a 1% lead, get over yourself lol.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1029 on: October 17, 2017, 12:15:10 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2017, 12:17:05 PM by DTC »

The reason why that race is so close is the sample is completely different from what Virginia usually is.

The demographics of that poll is 28% democrat 30% republican 43% independent.

In 2016, the demographics in the election were 40% democrat 33% republican 26% independent.

You guys need to look at the crosstabs and not just the numbers. This sample is completely different from Virginia. And it shows that Northam is doing better than Hillary among independents, which is a good sign.

It's like when you guys were going crazy over that poll that had 10% more democrats than republicans and then saying "WOW GILLEPSIE IS GOING TO GET OWNED".
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1030 on: October 17, 2017, 12:16:44 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1031 on: October 17, 2017, 12:17:58 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1032 on: October 17, 2017, 12:18:54 PM »

It’s a tight race, folks. Did we expect something else?

Hell a one day average of today’s polls is Northam +3. That seems reasonable to me.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1033 on: October 17, 2017, 12:22:04 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1034 on: October 17, 2017, 12:23:00 PM »

It’s a tight race, folks. Did we expect something else?

Hell a one day average of today’s polls is Northam +3. That seems reasonable to me.

Exactly.  There should be some spread among polls.  If Northam is ahead by a few points, then any result from a narrow Gillespie lead to a high-single-digit lead is a reasonable poll result.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1035 on: October 17, 2017, 12:23:06 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

But were dead on correct in 2016.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1036 on: October 17, 2017, 12:23:41 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

I have no idea what the polls were like in 2006 / 2013 / 2014 (crosstabs wise), but I'm telling you, the demographics polled in this sample are not representative of Virginia. Look at the crosstabs. 28% Dem - 30% Repub - 43% independent. Virginia in 2016 was 40% dem - 33% repub - 24% independent. If Virginia changed so drastically in 1 year, there'd be news stories about people changing their party from dem/repub to independent.

I could poll 100% republicans in California and get like a 90 - 10 result in a given race for the republicans. But that wouldn't be very useful.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1037 on: October 17, 2017, 12:26:56 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1038 on: October 17, 2017, 12:45:41 PM »

That's my Monmouth!

I get that it's only one poll though. The good thing about three polls being released today, though, is that it gets that stupid Washington Post Poll out of the 5 poll average. The 5-poll average is now Northam +4.2 . I still think this is Lean Northam, but I'll move it back to Toss-Up if the average goes below Northam +3.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1039 on: October 17, 2017, 12:50:54 PM »

If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1040 on: October 17, 2017, 12:52:37 PM »

If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.
What has Gillespie done to get racists excited?
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #1041 on: October 17, 2017, 12:58:17 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

No they don't you ignoramous.
I know in off year election many can expect AA voters turnout to drop this polls show they make up 16% of the vote down from 20% in 2013 and more in line with 2009. Considering that Fairfax is on the ticket and Trump feud with NFL, Obama, and Charlottesville I doubt it will be that low. 
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uti2
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« Reply #1042 on: October 17, 2017, 12:58:59 PM »

If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.

I made a thread about this topic:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275102.0

Gillespie is not running a campaign based on the principles of the GOP autospy, he's basically doing what Cruz would've done.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1043 on: October 17, 2017, 01:02:12 PM »

If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.
What has Gillespie done to get racists excited?


The MS-13 stuff can be viewed as racist.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1044 on: October 17, 2017, 01:03:13 PM »

Yep, what we definitely need is to lose another governorship. Well, whatever if that's what happens. I've learned, the hard way, not to read too much into polls unless they're all on the extremes in one way or another. We'll see on election day.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1045 on: October 17, 2017, 01:05:11 PM »

Yep, what we definitely need is to lose another governorship. Well, whatever if that's what happens. I've learned, the hard way, not to read too much into polls unless they're all on the extremes in one way or another. We'll see on election day.
Don't worry you will probably gain New Jersey and the Washington state senate as well so a net gain of 1
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1046 on: October 17, 2017, 01:06:34 PM »

Yep, what we definitely need is to lose another governorship. Well, whatever if that's what happens. I've learned, the hard way, not to read too much into polls unless they're all on the extremes in one way or another. We'll see on election day.
Don't worry you will probably gain New Jersey and the Washington state senate as well so a net gain of 1

A-huh
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1047 on: October 17, 2017, 01:09:30 PM »

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1048 on: October 17, 2017, 01:09:49 PM »

Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1049 on: October 17, 2017, 01:10:22 PM »

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.
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