VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:03:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 38 39 40 41 42 [43] 44 45 46 47 48 ... 73
Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 159899 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1050 on: October 17, 2017, 01:11:41 PM »

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1051 on: October 17, 2017, 01:14:03 PM »

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1052 on: October 17, 2017, 01:17:37 PM »

Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.

Your normalcy bias is why our politics are so screwed up. Go look at the ads Gillespie is running and your biggest takeaway is the Dems need to do soul-searching.

 
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1053 on: October 17, 2017, 01:17:47 PM »

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.

That's not how I interpreted his post. The point I thought he was trying to make was that the actual primary electorate was so far in the other direction that it makes this poll too unreliable. Their sample envisioned an unlikely electorate, given the primary turnout and the differences in voter enthusiasm since Trump took office.
Logged
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1054 on: October 17, 2017, 01:18:17 PM »

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1055 on: October 17, 2017, 01:22:21 PM »

Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.

Your normalcy bias is why our politics are so screwed up. Go look at the ads Gillespie is running and your biggest takeaway is the Dems need to do soul-searching.

 

Outside of particularly egregious cases, I don't rescind endorsements based solely on problematic ad tactics. For every GOP ad that could be viewed as unethical, there is a DEM ad that could be viewed as unethical.
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1056 on: October 17, 2017, 01:24:56 PM »

Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.

Your normalcy bias is why our politics are so screwed up. Go look at the ads Gillespie is running and your biggest takeaway is the Dems need to do soul-searching.

 

Outside of particularly egregious cases, I don't rescind endorsements based solely on problematic ad tactics. For every GOP ad that could be viewed as unethical, there is a DEM ad that could be viewed as unethical.

And Wulfric proves my point...
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1057 on: October 17, 2017, 01:28:39 PM »

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.

That's not how I interpreted his post. The point I thought he was trying to make was that the actual primary electorate was so far in the other direction that it makes this poll too unreliable. Their sample envisioned an unlikely electorate, given the primary turnout and the differences in voter enthusiasm since Trump took office.

Additionally, this poll has a 77% white crosstab. For comparison, the 2014 white share in VA was 70%. 2017 will quite clearly be a better environment for Democrats than 2014, and Virginia isn't getting any whiter.

Although yes, it is somewhat imperative that AA turnout not collapse for some reason, and I hope recent events combined with an Obama campaign event prevents that.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1058 on: October 17, 2017, 01:31:40 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.
Logged
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1059 on: October 17, 2017, 01:41:39 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.
I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.
Logged
Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,491
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1060 on: October 17, 2017, 01:45:33 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.
I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.
This poll overestimate Republicans. Republicans will not outnumber Democrats voter share on election day.
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,010
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1061 on: October 17, 2017, 01:55:45 PM »

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1062 on: October 17, 2017, 01:56:32 PM »

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.
Logged
_
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,103
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1063 on: October 17, 2017, 01:58:15 PM »

Alright I'm gonna offer my #HotTake.

The race appears to be tightening to an MOE race, but Northam still has a slight edge. Tossup/Tilt D, Northam should win, but Gillespie certainly has a chance
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,010
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1064 on: October 17, 2017, 02:03:02 PM »

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1065 on: October 17, 2017, 02:04:24 PM »

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.
I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.

According to what?
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1066 on: October 17, 2017, 02:06:16 PM »

And Perriello lost to said boring loser after having the entire D.C. establishment + Bernie cult behind him Grin
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1067 on: October 17, 2017, 02:08:23 PM »

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1068 on: October 17, 2017, 02:13:40 PM »

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,010
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1069 on: October 17, 2017, 02:31:56 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2017, 02:40:12 PM by Virginia »

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

I agree, I just support whoever I view as the best candidate. Northam could've taken the stage with Bernie 100 times and it wouldn't have made him any less of a limp candidate.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1070 on: October 17, 2017, 02:44:16 PM »

It'll be hard to spin if Democrats blow this one. I don't see that happening though.
Logged
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1071 on: October 17, 2017, 02:53:13 PM »

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

I agree, I just support whoever I view as the best candidate. Northam could've taken the stage with Bernie 100 times and it wouldn't have made him any less of a limp candidate.
You do realize outside of Charlottesville Bernie campaigning for northam would hurt him right
Logged
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1072 on: October 17, 2017, 03:06:18 PM »

Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,452
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1073 on: October 17, 2017, 03:18:29 PM »

Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Logged
Skunk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,456
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -9.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1074 on: October 17, 2017, 03:20:00 PM »

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F-lYM1YzBs
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 38 39 40 41 42 [43] 44 45 46 47 48 ... 73  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.068 seconds with 12 queries.