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| | |-+  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 77413 times)
Nyvin
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« Reply #1100 on: October 17, 2017, 02:04:24 pm »
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Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.
Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014 Wink

But were dead on correct in 2016.
I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.
I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.

According to what?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1101 on: October 17, 2017, 02:06:16 pm »
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And Perriello lost to said boring loser after having the entire D.C. establishment + Bernie cult behind him Grin
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Its over. Calling it now: rain has destroyed Northam in northern virginia, and also the competitive HOD races.  Gillespie wins by 2-3 points, and a very slight or none at all net gain for Democrats in the house.

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« Reply #1102 on: October 17, 2017, 02:08:23 pm »
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Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.
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« Reply #1103 on: October 17, 2017, 02:13:40 pm »
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Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.
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« Reply #1104 on: October 17, 2017, 02:31:56 pm »
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Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

I agree, I just support whoever I view as the best candidate. Northam could've taken the stage with Bernie 100 times and it wouldn't have made him any less of a limp candidate.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2017, 02:40:12 pm by Virginia »Logged

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« Reply #1105 on: October 17, 2017, 02:44:16 pm »
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It'll be hard to spin if Democrats blow this one. I don't see that happening though.
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« Reply #1106 on: October 17, 2017, 02:53:13 pm »
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Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

I agree, I just support whoever I view as the best candidate. Northam could've taken the stage with Bernie 100 times and it wouldn't have made him any less of a limp candidate.
You do realize outside of Charlottesville Bernie campaigning for northam would hurt him right
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1107 on: October 17, 2017, 03:06:18 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.
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if the sense of religious obligation desert the oaths which are the instruments of investigation in courts of justice ? And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle.

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« Reply #1108 on: October 17, 2017, 03:18:29 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
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« Reply #1109 on: October 17, 2017, 03:20:00 pm »
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Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F-lYM1YzBs
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Deblano
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« Reply #1110 on: October 17, 2017, 03:24:02 pm »
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Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

Oh, but it can my dear friend.

In a multiparty system, the "Sanders Wing" and the "Clinton Wing" could go their separate ways as different parties while forming a center-left coalition. However, since we have two major, big-tent parties, both wings will continue to have catfights every election as they play the blame game every primary and general election. This will continue until we see a "compromise candidate", which is one that I believe does not exist at the moment.

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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1111 on: October 17, 2017, 03:44:09 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.
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if the sense of religious obligation desert the oaths which are the instruments of investigation in courts of justice ? And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle.

PRESIDENT WASHINGTON 1796
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« Reply #1112 on: October 17, 2017, 03:53:02 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
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HST1948
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« Reply #1113 on: October 17, 2017, 04:01:09 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


That's actually not true about every poll being closer today ... Northam's lead went up from +4 to +6 in the Roanoke Collage poll today
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1114 on: October 17, 2017, 04:02:08 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?
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if the sense of religious obligation desert the oaths which are the instruments of investigation in courts of justice ? And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle.

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« Reply #1115 on: October 17, 2017, 04:07:47 pm »
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This poll has people 65+ at 32% of the electorate when the GOP favorable environments of 2013 and 2014 had it at 18% and 19% respectively.
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HST1948
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« Reply #1116 on: October 17, 2017, 04:09:08 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.


And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?

Please double check facts before you post... leading up to the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race there were more than 4 polls showing a Johnson lead including ones of >4% points, and at least 2 additional ones showing him tied. Johnson winning wasn't a shock.

As for your prior post, again, Northam's lead in the Roanoke College poll went up from +4 to +6. His lead in the CNU Poll went down by 3 and obviously he went down significant in the mannomouth poll.

I don't care who you vote for or what your opinions are on abortion/contraception, just please double check facts before positing.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #1117 on: October 17, 2017, 04:15:24 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.



And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?

Please double check facts before you post... leading up to the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race there were more than 4 polls showing a Johnson lead including ones of >4% points, and at least 2 additional ones showing him tied. Johnson winning wasn't a shock.

As for your prior post, again, Northam's lead in the Roanoke College poll went up from +4 to +6. His lead in the CNU Poll went down by 3 and obviously he went down significant in the mannomouth poll.

I don't care who you vote for or what your opinions are on abortion/contraception, just please double check facts before positing.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html#polls Only 1 poll with Johnson up
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if the sense of religious obligation desert the oaths which are the instruments of investigation in courts of justice ? And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle.

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« Reply #1118 on: October 17, 2017, 04:21:08 pm »
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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.
Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.



And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.
How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?

Please double check facts before you post... leading up to the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race there were more than 4 polls showing a Johnson lead including ones of >4% points, and at least 2 additional ones showing him tied. Johnson winning wasn't a shock.

As for your prior post, again, Northam's lead in the Roanoke College poll went up from +4 to +6. His lead in the CNU Poll went down by 3 and obviously he went down significant in the mannomouth poll.

I don't care who you vote for or what your opinions are on abortion/contraception, just please double check facts before positing.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html#polls Only 1 poll with Johnson up

Do a little more research an you will find that 3 survey monkey polls leading up to the election (which had the largest survey sample size and one of the smallest MOE) found Johnson up and an additional one or two found him tied. Links to each poll are available on the 2016 WI Senate Election Wikipage, and I believe though 538 (not sure if they are still there or not, but I checked and still available on wiki).
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« Reply #1119 on: October 17, 2017, 11:37:43 pm »
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At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.
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« Reply #1120 on: October 17, 2017, 11:49:53 pm »
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At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.
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if the sense of religious obligation desert the oaths which are the instruments of investigation in courts of justice ? And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle.

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« Reply #1121 on: October 18, 2017, 01:43:58 am »
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At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.

So basically like every remotely competitive Virginia race then? Hillary, Kaine, Obama won it pretty comfortably and even they trailed well into the night.
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« Reply #1122 on: October 18, 2017, 03:05:00 am »
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At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.

It's important to remember to totally tune out whatever the garbage statewide total is telling you for most of the night and just look at whatever's coming in from NoVA and Richmond/Henrico/Norfolk, until about 80% of the statewide total is in.
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« Reply #1123 on: October 18, 2017, 10:14:08 am »
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Welp.



So much for that black turnout.
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« Reply #1124 on: October 18, 2017, 10:25:22 am »
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The non-Fairfax flier, which only exists because some union was mad about his lack of support for natural gas pipelines, is only being distributed in Northern Virginia. This is not a region with a lot of black people, and we’re voting for him based on his last name anyway.
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Its over. Calling it now: rain has destroyed Northam in northern virginia, and also the competitive HOD races.  Gillespie wins by 2-3 points, and a very slight or none at all net gain for Democrats in the house.

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