VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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  VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)  (Read 159879 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1100 on: October 18, 2017, 06:46:04 PM »

Dems worried about black disengagement, particularly those under 40.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1101 on: October 18, 2017, 06:51:32 PM »


Great News for Gillespie, though ideally blacks would come out and actually vote for Gillespie rather than abstaining.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1102 on: October 18, 2017, 07:09:44 PM »

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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1103 on: October 18, 2017, 09:07:09 PM »


Why would they ever?
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« Reply #1104 on: October 18, 2017, 09:13:15 PM »

Wait, Wulfric supports Gillespie? That's fucking gold.

Endorsed him months ago Smiley
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1105 on: October 18, 2017, 09:25:18 PM »

The non-Fairfax flier, which only exists because some union was mad about his lack of support for natural gas pipelines, is only being distributed in Northern Virginia. This is not a region with a lot of black people, and we’re voting for him based on his last name anyway.

Wait that flier is real?  I thought it was photoshopped?

It's real, sadly enough. You can thank the Laborers’ International Union of North America for their infinite wisdom. Maybe Northam can disavow.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #1106 on: October 18, 2017, 10:24:30 PM »

Fake news. He was left off literature for canvassers of an organization that did not endorse him because of a policy position. They were still provided with literature about the entire ticket.
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« Reply #1107 on: October 19, 2017, 01:12:11 AM »

Over on the house of delegates side, Sabato has released a map of the competitive seats:





The Safe R seats are 47 in number, and the Safe D seats are 31 in number. Thus, 22 seats are competitive. The dems are clearly on a narrow path in terms of taking back the HoD, but it's not impossible.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #1108 on: October 19, 2017, 04:28:40 AM »

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1109 on: October 19, 2017, 06:48:19 AM »

Here's DDHQs VA delegate map - done by James Miles Coleman.  Note they rate district 02, and 42 as safe dem pickups.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1110 on: October 19, 2017, 09:42:14 AM »

NBC First Read: In Virginia, Democrats enjoy nearly every advantage:




Only advantage they give Gillespie is that Democratic turnout is typically low in non-Presidential years, but counter that by saying that Democrats were much more enthusiastic during the June primary.

Source
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« Reply #1111 on: October 19, 2017, 10:00:02 AM »

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1112 on: October 19, 2017, 10:12:31 AM »

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1113 on: October 19, 2017, 10:14:34 AM »

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34

I see that now. Mixed up that and 32, LOL.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1114 on: October 19, 2017, 10:49:47 AM »

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34

I see that now. Mixed up that and 32, LOL.

Easy mistake.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1115 on: October 19, 2017, 10:52:39 AM »

Here's DDHQs VA delegate map - done by James Miles Coleman.  Note they rate district 02, and 42 as safe dem pickups.



I also have to strongly recommend Miles's 6-part preview on the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Hundreds of maps, information on fundraising and number of volunteers, historical background, etc.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1116 on: October 19, 2017, 10:56:27 AM »

Here's DDHQs VA delegate map - done by James Miles Coleman.  Note they rate district 02, and 42 as safe dem pickups.



I also have to strongly recommend Miles's 6-part preview on the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Hundreds of maps, information on fundraising and number of volunteers, historical background, etc.
Link?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1117 on: October 19, 2017, 11:17:15 AM »

I also have to strongly recommend Miles's 6-part preview on the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Hundreds of maps, information on fundraising and number of volunteers, historical background, etc.
Link?

You can find them here: https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/author/milescoleman/
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Deblano
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« Reply #1118 on: October 19, 2017, 11:27:24 AM »

Over on the house of delegates side, Sabato has released a map of the competitive seats:





The Safe R seats are 47 in number, and the Safe D seats are 31 in number. Thus, 22 seats are competitive. The dems are clearly on a narrow path in terms of taking back the HoD, but it's not impossible.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/

I'm surprised the 34th District is competitive this year? What happened there. I know that Kathleen Murphy beat Craig Parisot twice by the skin of her teeth, but I would have expected her seat to be a bit more safe since then.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1119 on: October 19, 2017, 11:38:00 AM »

^ It's marked as competitive based on the close result last time.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1120 on: October 19, 2017, 11:41:19 AM »

And here is Cooks analysis from a few weeks ago.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/why-virginias-delegate-races-could-be-most-telling-2017-elections

Overall, I think it goes Sabato -> Cook -> DDHQ in the projections from fewest to greatest amount of expected gains. Sabato seems to be leaning towards 6-7, Cook 7-8, DDHQ 8-10.
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henster
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« Reply #1121 on: October 19, 2017, 12:04:12 PM »

Billionaire Jeff Greene is still said to be considering a run for FL-GOV, he ran for Senate in 2010 and lost the primary to Kendrick Meek. I am not impressed with Gwen Graham, her fundraising has been weak and she does not seem to be an inspiring candidate. FL is an incredibly expensive state to run in so having a self funder might not be so bad. Levine is also independently wealthy.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1122 on: October 19, 2017, 12:26:55 PM »

Billionaire Jeff Greene is still said to be considering a run for FL-GOV, he ran for Senate in 2010 and lost the primary to Kendrick Meek. I am not impressed with Gwen Graham, her fundraising has been weak and she does not seem to be an inspiring candidate. FL is an incredibly expensive state to run in so having a self funder might not be so bad. Levine is also independently wealthy.

Wrong thread.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1123 on: October 19, 2017, 01:20:48 PM »

So, totaling up the seats that are universally agreed to be Safe for the incumbent party, we have 41 Safe R seats and 31 Safe D seats. 51 seats are needed for a majority.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1124 on: October 19, 2017, 02:57:23 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 03:00:10 PM by IceSpear »

NBC First Read: In Virginia, Democrats enjoy nearly every advantage:




Only advantage they give Gillespie is that Democratic turnout is typically low in non-Presidential years, but counter that by saying that Democrats were much more enthusiastic during the June primary.

Source

Pretty accurate analysis. Which is why a loss would be an unspinnable disaster for the Dems.

They forgot that the current Dem governor is also popular.
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