VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Panhandle Progressive]

The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.

If PW and Fairfax vote. Historically, gubernatorial turnout here is like 40%. VB, even as Northam's home base, is a conservative area. If downstate comes out and if turnout is diluted in NoVA, it will be a closer race than people think.

I don't believe it will be closer than people/pollsters think. Dems have the wind at their back this cycle. Reps are running into it. It seems easy to see which group of candidates will come out on top. Still need proof? Look at the June primary results. 6 in 10 VA voters voted for a Democrat. A huge (even gigantic) lead, in summer. It will be at least this same margin in November. All of the Republicans are going down.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What effect, if any, will there be on this race from the reported indictments in the Mueller investigation?

[Virginiá]

What effect, if any, will there be on this race from the reported indictments in the Mueller investigation?

It's possible it could widen the enthusiasm gap. I'm not sure how many votes such an event would flip though, even if there is some of correlation between views of the president and downballot election choices. That effect is usually more prevalent in races that aren't as high-profile as the Governors race.

[SoLongAtlas]

SEIU is canvassing PW right now. They just left a Northam-Fairfax-Herring door hanger on my door. It's pretty good in terms of print quality; hits hard on Medicaid expansion and livable wage on the back.

[Fuzzy Bear]

For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with.  For their own good, of course.

I sense a Gillespie upset.  And it will be an upset, because Northam should win.  But I sense he won't.

[Skill and Chance]

For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with.  For their own good, of course.

I sense a Gillespie upset.  And it will be an upset, because Northam should win.  But I sense he won't.

No way on this.  Perriello would win by 10-15, probably with the highest turnout on record for an odd year.

Now they are stuck with another 2013/14 trying to squeeze just enough extra votes out of Fairfax with social issues.  IMO it will probably work and he still wins by 1-3, but it didn't need to be close when there is a GOP incumbent president with <40% approval.  Perriello would have made Trump's statewide approval % Gillespie's ceiling.

[heatcharger]

Perriello would win by 10-15, probably with the highest turnout on record for an odd year.

Uh, no, he probably wouldn't have. Perriello was supposed to be a lightning rod for liberal grassroots activism from across the left-wing spectrum, which was supposed to be part of his GE strength. But he was not able to deliver on that in the Democratic primary. Not anywhere close, actually, even when people like me were sweating like dogs thinking he had a formula for cracking Fairfax County.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Everyone's acting like Gillespie's gonna overperform the polls again massively or something and treating it as if it's destined to be within 3 points

The polling average doesn't need to be off by anywhere near as it was in 2014 for Gillespie to win though. The 2014 averages were roughly Warner +9, this year the average is somewhere between Northam +2.75 and Northam +4 (several "fair" calculations are possible). As I said upthread, under most calculations, Northam can no longer withstand the entire 2013 polling error of 4%. That being said, I understand that betting on polling errors is a poor strategy at times, and will keep the race in the Lean D category as long as the average stays above half the 2013 polling error (2%).

[Roronoa D. Law]

For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with.  For their own good, of course.

I sense a Gillespie upset.  And it will be an upset, because Northam should win.  But I sense he won't.

Northam won fair and square win a large margin with higher than expected turnout. Gillespie barely got out of his primary and the party is not totally unified behind him. Plus his popularity is basically an extension of the Bushes not necessarily for his own accomplishment or statesmanship. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone's acting like Gillespie's gonna overperform the polls again massively or something and treating it as if it's destined to be within 3 points

The polling average doesn't need to be off by anywhere near as it was in 2014 for Gillespie to win though. The 2014 averages were roughly Warner +9, this year the average is somewhere between Northam +2.75 and Northam +4 (several "fair" calculations are possible). As I said upthread, under most calculations, Northam can no longer withstand the entire 2013 polling error of 4%. That being said, I understand that betting on polling errors is a poor strategy at times, and will keep the race in the Lean D category as long as the average stays above half the 2013 polling error (2%).

if you take out the two wack polls with Gillespie up, Northam's lead is over 7 points. Those are the ones screwing the average. Hence, expecting Gillespie to outperform an average like that is ridiculous. I can't wait til this race is over so we can stop this stupid notion that only Republicans overperform averages in off years.

The Hampton poll with Gillespie+8 looks strange.  Nate Cohn has pointed out that the internal numbers in it don't add up, so I think it's reasonable to discount that one.  But if you throw out the other poll with a Gillespie lead, you should also throw out the Q poll with Northam +14, although I'd keep both of them.  They're probably just outliers, which do happen.

[heatcharger]

About the Hampton poll: Just wait like 5 days before they come out with their final poll with Northam +5 to cover their ass. They did this in 2016 and they'll do it again.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Everyone's acting like Gillespie's gonna overperform the polls again massively or something and treating it as if it's destined to be within 3 points

The polling average doesn't need to be off by anywhere near as it was in 2014 for Gillespie to win though. The 2014 averages were roughly Warner +9, this year the average is somewhere between Northam +2.75 and Northam +4 (several "fair" calculations are possible). As I said upthread, under most calculations, Northam can no longer withstand the entire 2013 polling error of 4%. That being said, I understand that betting on polling errors is a poor strategy at times, and will keep the race in the Lean D category as long as the average stays above half the 2013 polling error (2%).

if you take out the two wack polls with Gillespie up, Northam's lead is over 7 points. Those are the ones screwing the average. Hence, expecting Gillespie to outperform an average like that is ridiculous. I can't wait til this race is over so we can stop this stupid notion that only Republicans overperform averages in off years.

You can take out Hampton, but if you do that, it's only fair that you take out Quinnipiac as well. The polls that show Gillespie +1-+2 are not really outlandish and should be part of any fair calculation, though of course it's fair to use "the polling company's" three-way numbers (Tie) instead of their two-way numbers (Gillespie +2), but even doing that keeps it within that Northam +2.75 to Northam +4 range in a five poll or six poll average.

About the Hampton poll: Just wait like 5 days before they come out with their final poll with Northam +5 to cover their ass. They did this in 2016 and they'll do it again.

If that happens, I will of course take that into account.

[Gass3268]

Washington Post endorses Northam, Fairfax & Herring

[Young Conservative]

Washington Post endorses Northam, Fairfax & Herring

How shocking.

Said no one.

[Gass3268]

Washington Post endorses Northam, Fairfax & Herring

How shocking.

Said no one.

They endorsed Comstock last year

[Gass3268]

They didn't just endorse the Democratic ticket, they went after the Republicans:

[Rookie Yinzer]

For some reason, I sense that Gillespie has more real popularity, whereas Northam is the candidate the Democrats were stuck with. 

The candidate who almost lost to an alt-right neo-Confederate extremist has more popularity? K.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

[Mr. Smith]

I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.

[Zioneer]

I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.

Northam is probably one of the laziest gubernatorial campaigners in modern history. It's almost ridiculous how low energy he is, to use a Trumpian term.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.

Northam is probably one of the laziest gubernatorial campaigners in modern history. It's almost ridiculous how low energy he is, to use a Trumpian term.

Can't tell if you're serious.

[Zioneer]

I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.

Northam is probably one of the laziest gubernatorial campaigners in modern history. It's almost ridiculous how low energy he is, to use a Trumpian term.

Can't tell if you're serious.

From what I've heard both in 2013 and in 2017, I'm completely serious.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.

Branching out?! He's running a rural culture warrior campaign with all the dog whistles. There is no evidence he is keeping a good % of moderates or not getting blown out in NoVa

[henster]

I just can't fathom a former Washington lobbyist being more popular with voters than a pediatrician and former Army doctor. Looking through Gillespie's career I can't find a single noble thing he's ever done.

[Skill and Chance]

Worth noting that the polls were only off at the top of the ticket in 2013.  Northam's big margin and Herring's statistical tie were accurately forecasted for LG and AG.