VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[henster]

People take exits at face value while Cohn has argued extensively that they are somewhat off. I remember him saying 2013 was actually 71-14 W/B and not the 21% the exits showed.

[Virginiá]

People take exits at face value while Cohn has argued extensively that they are somewhat off. I remember him saying 2013 was actually 71-14 W/B and not the 21% the exits showed.

Fair enough. I was aware of Cohn's big article on how there are more white voters than we think, but I wasn't privy to his numbers for the black share of the VA electorate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

[Keep cool-idge]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Well it’s official this race is tied northam is up 1.2 on RCP you have him up 1.5 but regardless this is going to be a razor thin margin either way.

[Skill and Chance]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Well it’s official this race is tied northam is up 1.2 on RCP you have him up 1.5 but regardless this is going to be a razor thin margin either way.

That's because RCP doesn't have Gravis yet, and that was surprisingly Northam's best poll of the week.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Trafalgar is literally a Republican polling firm.

[henster]

Trafalgar has Gillespie beating Northam 65-23 with 18-25 voters.

[Dr. Arch]

Trafalgar has Gillespie beating Northam 65-23 with 18-25 voters.

Must be a typo

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Trafalgar is literally a Republican polling firm.

With an extraordinarily good record anywhere but NV.

[The Other Castro]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

[Keep cool-idge]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.

[Hydera]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

I hope being out of the white house means the dem gets a mid-term bonus and pushes that to 5% on election day. Otherwise had it been +2.8 in '13 VA election then the republicans would had won that by 1.5%.

[heatcharger]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.

You are the most adorable poster on this forum right now.

[The Other Castro]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.

Well if you removed that poll, the most recent one before that is Quinnipiac's N+17, bringing the average to N+5.2. Take your pick.

[Keep cool-idge]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.

Well if you removed that poll, the most recent one before that is Quinnipiac's N+17, bringing the average to N+5.2. Take your pick.

Or we can put in the polling company poll

[Fudotei]

Important thing to note is the vote share -- Northam has been close to 50% but not quite there while Gillespie was flinging around in the mid to low 40s. Trafalgar has him at 48% (and down 1 still) meaning he's probably getting the edge on Hyra/undecided voters. Could go down to the wire

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).

[Hydera]

If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).

Perriello has so much enthusiasm he lost the primary.

If Perriello was the candidate he'd suffer the same polling convergence when Gillespie released the MS-13 ad, as well as LVF releasing that dumb ad in response, driving up enthusiasm amongst rural/suburbanite republicans.

[Yank2133]

If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).

It would be nice if people knew what they were talking about before commenting about this election.

Northam winning had nothing to do with being next in line. He won because he built up years of support with AA voters in the state, that was the biggest reason why he beat Perriello.
 

[2016]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

[Cactus Jack]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

Basically, it's come down to Northam turning out to be a fairly awful candidate and Gillespie proving, once again, that he's the ultimate political operator. The latter has run circles around the former in message and advertising, even while spelunking in the moral gutter.

[Duke of York]

If we lose this, maybe Democrats will learn to stop going with the milquetoast candidate (Northam) just because he's next in line, over the candidate with actual enthusiasm behind him (Perrielo).

It would be nice if people knew what they were talking about before commenting about this election.

Northam winning had nothing to do with being next in line. He won because he built up years of support with AA voters in the state, that was the biggest reason why he beat Perriello.
 

Hopefully they turn out on Tuesday and put him and Fairfax over the finish line.

[Hydera]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist. By releasing an ad about MS-13. This got republican voters fired up. At the same time the democratic base being the democratic base is still bad with off year turnout and isnt getting enough votes in return to counter a surge amongst republican voters.

[JJC]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.

[JonHawk]

I sense a Gillespie upset here. It will be pretty close though. Come on Ed!