VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Mr. Smith]

Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel

[Mr. Smith]

Oh and Campbell Co. will look like the other central VA areas

[Mr. Smith]

Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel

Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.

[Mr. Smith]

Buena Vista went for Northam just as I thought.

Unlikely, but it'd be hilarious if Lynchburg voted for Perriello right after this. No idea when that will dump.

Methinks for that city:

Dems: Northam, Fairfax
GOP: Gillespie, Vogel

Holy s&^!

Wow, Lynchburg was less establishment than usual and to the left of Buena Vista at that. I know the city went significantly leftwards towards Hillary this time around, but this is crazy.

The land of Jerry Falwell's institution, one of the last holdouts for the state during The Civil War....and it votes decidedly to the left of Buena Vista AND in the case of the Governor, the college town of Lexington....this, this is telling.

and nearly 2/3 of Lynchburg voters today voted in the GOP primary.

perhaps more to the point, this is right outside the boundaries of his former district.  People know about him there and they believed he would represent their interests.  Not everything is about left vs right.

Ah, that explains it.

[Mr. Smith]

Rockbridge Co. isn't usually a D heavy county, hasn't been since maybe the '90's. Kinda strange to see this happen.

[Mr. Smith]

Until McAuliffe won, Virginia had a very long run of electing a governor of the opposite party of the president. McAuliffe bucked this trend because of the D trend in the state. Neither augurs well for Gillespie.

No, Cuccinelli was just a really awful candidate for the GOP. Bill Bolling would've ripped Fast Terry to shreds like it's '09 and Creigh Deeds is back in place.

Also, Gillespie did nearly take out Warner despite no resources AT ALL.

How about Fairfax vs Vogel? Predictions? Or will it simply go how the gubernatorial goes?

Eh, so goes the top, so goes part II.

[Mr. Smith]

And here we see the tradeoffs of Gillespie, we can get more centrist independents like Deblano here, but we lose people further to the right like Mr. Reactionary, question is how many of each group are there.  I tend to think there are more of the former, but i'm not a Virginian so i'd defer to the natives on this.

Mr. Reactionary-types are unlikely to actually vote for Northam. Most right-wing edgelords like him will vote Gillespie anyway or just stay home.

People with ideologies similar to Deblano exist in relatively large numbers but it remains to be seen whether they support him as strongly as they did in 2014.

I'd say more "centrist independents" voted for Warner in 2014 instead of Gillespie, based on my hunch. However, this election may be more evenly divided among centrists.  

EDIT: I would also add that there may be a percentage of people with ideologies similar to mine (centrist, somewhat libertarian) who are relatively apolitical and are less like to engage politically or even vote.

Part of 2014 was due to the presence of notable spoiler Bob Sarvis, the odds of someone of that caliber is unlikely again.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't think there'll be much drama in this race on election night...

I think it will be fairly close with Northam winning later into the night.

I think it will be around Hillary's margin in 2016 give or take 1% or 2% on election night.

Sounds about right, probably flips over to D at 86 or 88% [which is also where it flipped for Obama] instead of 92%.

[Mr. Smith]

Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272

I'm more curious about Jim Webb's endorsement at this point.

[Mr. Smith]

McAuliffe had a Lean, and somehow only won by two against someone far less with it than Gillespie...and T-Mac had name recognition at that.

What does that say about a mere Tilt and relative obscurity?

[Mr. Smith]

What reaction (here anyway)? Northam wasn't exactly Mr. Exciting himself, and T-Mac barely won against someone more screwloose.

It's only gonna be bad if Adams and Vogel also win somehow.

Anyway, I'm guessing whomever wins, wins by less than a point.

[Mr. Smith]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

[Mr. Smith]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

Northam spending time in Harrisonburg is a better use of his time then Buena Vista.

The problem is that skipping Buena Vista would get a lot more publicity than attending a campaign thingy in Harrisonburg.

Precisely, which is why Tim Kaine went for it in 2012, even though he was never by ANY measure behind George "Macaca" Allen.

It's like the state's version of how every Democrat goes to Wisconsin [well except for well...you know who].

Anyway, it's too late now, the Labor Day Parade was the day to go there as a good faith move, AND he could've ginned up the base in the VMI/W&L town of Lexington as well.

[Mr. Smith]

Where are the ads hitting Gillespie on his awful tax plan? Forget abortion it’s basically Brownback’s plan and now he wants to bring it to VA.

It's out of the Anthony Brown playbook of course.

[Mr. Smith]

Obama is coming to Richmond!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obama was at it for Bruce Failey, Anthony Brown [another harmless, moderate Lt. Gov who was supposed to walk-in], and lastly, Hillary Clinton....not a good record. Pretty obvious he can't transfer the juju.

[Mr. Smith]

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

ONE GODDAMN POLL PEOPLE! ONE F**KING POLL.

Jesus Christ.

Polls predicting victory for Thom Tillis? None!

Polls predicting victory for Ron Johnson? None!

Polls predicting single digits for Mark Warner or even a loss? None!

[Mr. Smith]

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

ONE GODDAMN POLL PEOPLE! ONE F**KING POLL.

Jesus Christ.

Polls predicting victory for Thom Tillis? None!

Polls predicting victory for Ron Johnson? None!

Polls predicting single digits for Mark Warner or even a loss? None!

Between the end of September and the election Tillis lead in 6 polls and tied in 6.

Really? I only remember polls that had Hagan very narrowly ahead the entire way.

I guess I  "auto-junk polled" lots of those tillis leads back a lot back then.

[Mr. Smith]

Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

I'd argue his move back to the center is really the problem here.

There's a reason Da' C*&ch kept it close as he did against T-Mac, who wasn't asleep at the wheel like Warner was back in 2014.

But yeah, the muddled mess means now he's not gonna impress either side.

[Mr. Smith]

Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

If Pence couldn't draw a crowd, neither will this.

If Trump decided to do a couple rallies in SW Virginia would that help Gillespie?

How did it work out for Strange with that Huntsville rally again?

[Mr. Smith]

"Revival"? Moderates run the party.

This.

And even if this were true, I don't recall the victory of Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker doing this for the GOP.

I don't recall it that way Bob McDonnell either, actually he veered rightwards

[Mr. Smith]

I don't get this attitude of "oh 2013 was off so that's going to be Ed's #" the situation on the ground is completely different

Simple:

Gillespie is clearly better at branching out than Da' C69ch, and Northam doesn't seem to be running nearly as high an energy campaign as Fast Terry.

This evens out the playing field again.

[Mr. Smith]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

[Mr. Smith]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

[Mr. Smith]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?