VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Nyvin]

Wow,  never would've thought it'd be the Republican primary that's so much more competitive.

[Nyvin]

It's crazy how VA-5 is still Perriello's best area by far after all these years.   I didn't think it'd be that prominent especially since he didn't serve very long.

[Nyvin]

Northam had the largest percentage of support from urban precincts,  Stewart was largest in rural.

http://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/urban-suburban-rural-divide/

[Nyvin]

As a side note on this election:  The GOP's vote share coming from NoVA has gone down from 2016.   This is actually pretty bad for them because it shows the NoVA "Republicans" that voted against Trump might be turning into perma-Democrats.

Also it allows the more conservative rural parts of the party to be more dominant in the state party in a state that is becoming more left-wing/moderate as a whole.   This is seen by the tight race with Gillespie and Stewart.  Gillespie fell short in NoVA while Stewart was strong out west.

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

[Nyvin]

Kind of the same situation California Republicans are in with their party being dominated by hardline conservatives in a state that doesn't match that ideology at all.

If only the legislature had listened to Bob McDonnell and moderated, they may have a chance of being competitive. Looks like they figure they have to max-out the vote share in SW VA (which is declining in population), but are alienating voters in high-population areas. It's ironic, since back in the day, the best region for the Democrats was SW VA, while Republicans did best in NOVA and Richmond's suburbs.

Note that the GOP could treat VA as a safe state because of that. Same thing happened in WA, honestly

How so?   Just wondering what you mean

[Nyvin]

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014

But were dead on correct in 2016.

I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.

[Nyvin]

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014

But were dead on correct in 2016.

I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.

I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.

According to what?