VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Heisenberg]

Nice to see a contested D primary. There goes the Democrats' cleared field advantage. I still think the Democrats are favored to hold this one, though.

[Heisenberg]

Go Perriello! I'm hoping for an upset here in the Dem primary, and it'd be great to see "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Ralph Northam go down.

What kind of fiscal conservative is Ralph Northam? Is he really that conservative on fiscal issues, or is he just conservative by Democratic standards? I'd assume the latter.

[Heisenberg]

I've always liked Perriello, but I'll be volunteering for Northam. 

Change your avatar then.

To what? Miles is a real LA Dem.

I think he meant Miles should change it to D-VA.

But he's entitled to use whatever avatar he wants.

[Heisenberg]

Perriello repudiates his Stupak amendment vote.

I wouldn't be surprised if soon (maybe even with the FLL Airport Shooting) he'll also repudiate his pro-NRA record (the group endorsed him over Hurt in 2010).
This primary will be fun to watch and follow, especially with not much else going on.

[Heisenberg]

Perriello repudiates his Stupak amendment vote.

I wouldn't be surprised if soon (maybe even with the FLL Airport Shooting) he'll also repudiate his pro-NRA record (the group endorsed him over Hurt in 2010).
This primary will be fun to watch and follow, especially with not much else going on.

He already did that in 2013.

Oh, wow. I did not know that.

[Heisenberg]

Northam got the endorsement of NARAL

This seems like quite a blow to Perriello.

Not surprising. Even with Northam having admitted to voting for GWB both times, social liberalism has always been something he's been pretty consistent with, plus he's a sitting officeholder, so he has a consistent, recent record. Perriello was in office only two years, and then he had a mixed abortion record.

[Heisenberg]

I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.

Early in his career he described himself as "conservative on fiscal issues but liberal on social issues," and was courted to switch to the GOP. It seems like that's what made him a Democrat (at first). I wouldn't call him right of the center fiscally, but he isn't that much to the left, and is certainly running to Perriello's right on economic issues.

[Heisenberg]

I feel like Northam seems to focus on social issues far more than Perriello.

Mark Uter...er...Udall's people should get in touch with Northam's people about that.

Yes, but that strategy is proven to work better in VA than in any other competitive state (Hillary 2016, McAuliffe/Herring 2013, etc.)

Focusing on social liberalism should work well in New Hampshire, though I guess it's not really a competitive state.

[Heisenberg]

It may be another proxy battle between Sanders and Clinton. Reliving the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries.

Tom Perriello has some good ideas, but he may be too anti-gun and anti-military to win in Virginia. The Democratic primary is Lean Northam at this point.

We'll see. I think Northam can do well in the rural areas of Virginia, but Perriello could do well with the anti-gun NOVA suburbanites that have flooded Virginia over the past couple of years.

However, Ed Gillespie probably wants Perriello as the Democratic opponent in this open seat. RGA would pour money into this race, and yes, Republicans can still win Virginia despite it being an off-year in Trump/Pence-era politics.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/bernie-sanders-endorses-tom-perriello-236858

Tom has to be the most gun friendly Dem, He has an A rating or something from the NRA & no1 is anti-military, some people just don't want to see money abused in stupid wars & soldiers killed for no good reason.

VA is a Likely D at this point & it will be very hard for the GOP to win in 2017 & Tom has been doing better than Ralph in the polls. And he has support from Podesta, Obama staffers & Sanders & his supporters - Essentially both wings - Let's see if he win now, because if he still can't, then it's difficult to see him having a good future in politics !

Perriello seems to have renounced his pro-gun past a few years ago. Still, I can see him being attacked as flip flopping on that issue.

[Heisenberg]

Tom is a fighter, I saw the interview he did with Chris Hayes & he seemed great. The Rubio comparisons don't surprise me because these same posters have terrible judgement & had no idea HRC could lose & how hated she was.

Tom is a future star of the Democrats while Northam was a Republican & conservative who voted for Bush twice after the Iraq War was playing out & Bush is one of the biggest disasters in recent history. The guy has 0 charisma, is totally bland &  has no business being anywhere near the Gov. seat !

There are probably lots of Democrats in Virginia who voted for Bush twice. It did swing rather dramatically from safe red to safe blue in a matter of years.

Not all, but I'm sure many are in the NOVA area. Remember, W Bush wasn't anti-big government at all, and Republicans held VA-11 from 1994 to 2008. Stuff like drain the swamp, federal hiring freeze, cut unnecessary spending, etc. are beyond toxic in that area, and a lot of the NOVA people will naturally be very anti-Republican assuming the GOP keeps moving in the direction it does. The DC suburbs are not your typical suburbs.

[Heisenberg]

Who would have thought the most interesting primaries where on the R's side? That East-West divide is seriously bad it playing out in all races.

Yeah but I'm not really surprised. Eastern Virginia = Establishment, Western Virginia = Populist I guess.

NYT just called LG-D for Fairfax.

[Heisenberg]

My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.

Well, I'd expect Herring to run for Governor in 2021, and Fairfax may not want to challenge him, and instead just run for reelex. When the AG and LG offices are both held by the smae party, I've noticed that things like that sometimes happen (2009, 2017).

My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.

I mean, I knew there'd be bitter clingers in SWVA, but in a supposedly affluent, educated, and urbane county like Prince William?!

I doubt most people in Prince William feel that way. From my understanding his openness of the Confederate Flag is relatively new (strange given he's originally from Duluth, MN). I think he's DOA if he stands for reelection as Prince William CE.

[Heisenberg]

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."