VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[SoLongAtlas]

The Dem primary will be close.

[SoLongAtlas]

Tom is a good guy and he meant well (he was my former Rep and met him at one of his ACA town halls in 2010) but Northam has my support. Tom can't run a NY or CA style campaign in VA and win. VA is shifting to the Dems but it is still a southern state below PW county and east/west of Richmond. Gillespie would love to run against him. Northam can win and Gillespie knows that, polls bear it out as well.

[SoLongAtlas]

Link to the Lt. Gov. forum at Mason next week https://schar.gmu.edu/ltgov

Info if you want to go:

Date: May 23, 2017

Time: 6:30pm - 9:30pm

Location: George Mason University - Fairfax Campus

[SoLongAtlas]

Virginia's early vote turnout a week out is at 78.6% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

For the Republicans it is only at 43.3% of the total from the Republican Presidential Primary.

Hampton Road's (Northam's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 103% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Piedmont's (Perriello's base area) early vote turnout a week out is already at 104% of what was cast for the Democratic Presidential Primary last year.

Most of the Piedmont numbers are small for absentee and unless a surge of people come out of nowhere to vote in the primary, Piedmont (mostly rural), won't provide enough votes to make up t he difference with the shore and NoVA. Key here is C'ville, Perriello's base. He might, emphasis might, eek out a win with maxed out C'ville but that is a real stretch.

[SoLongAtlas]

@Beet great dedication by Perriello but I still think he will lose the primary.

As far as Stewart goes, he will lose in a landslide if he gets the GOP nod. In VA they call him the Southern Avenger lol

[SoLongAtlas]

Voting Northam after work. First time voting in a Dem primary but have voted Dem in a presidential before.

Great results tracker on the NYT site https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-primary-elections

[SoLongAtlas]

So, anecdotally I'm hearing very low turnout. But also anecdotally, I'm seeing on Twitter comparisons to 2009 and it seems that every precinct posted on Twitter is approaching 2009 turnout before the PM rush has started.

2009 had 40.4% turnout. Not too shabby but not great. I think it will be lower due to the fact that the GOP candidate is all but decided. Will be interesting to see if Confederate Corey comes in a close second (or if he gets the nod in a surprise - that will be something to see).

[SoLongAtlas]

Just got back from voting at my Prince William polling place. Very light turnout but most people aren't back from work yet or still stuck on 95. One ME or Indian man came in with his family and when they asked for his id he said "Which one? Russian or US?" The whole room laughed, including me.

Edit: also want to point out that Northam was first on the Democratic primary ballot which will help him with undecideds or folks that don't care that much.

[SoLongAtlas]

Turnout is apparently abysmal on the Republican side. Enough for an upset? We'll see.

The Sothron Avenger might have his day! Lol

[SoLongAtlas]

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

It's all over the place in central VA.

[SoLongAtlas]

My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.

Well, I'd expect Herring to run for Governor in 2021, and Fairfax may not want to challenge him, and instead just run for reelex. When the AG and LG offices are both held by the smae party, I've noticed that things like that sometimes happen (2009, 2017).

My thinking is Perriello runs for Lt.G in 2021, then governor in 2025.  The guy's 42.  He has time.

Didn't know there were that many people who bitterly cling to the rebel flag in VA...

You'd be surprised.

I mean, I knew there'd be bitter clingers in SWVA, but in a supposedly affluent, educated, and urbane county like Prince William?!

I doubt most people in Prince William feel that way. From my understanding his openness of the Confederate Flag is relatively new (strange given he's originally from Duluth, MN). I think he's DOA if he stands for reelection as Prince William CE.

Someone put a huge like 20 foot rebel flag on the side of 95 south in PW county plus a lot of southern military, esp Marines sympathize with the rebs here.

[SoLongAtlas]

Vogel also ran an ad saying how she fought against Obama care and expanded health coverage and how pro life Virginia should be or something to that effect.

[SoLongAtlas]

Stewart did much better in Fairfax than he should have. I don't see how Gillespie wins in November.

He probably won't. Virginia is not purple like the GOP would have you believe. It is a purplish blue/indigo.

MA is deep blue and they have a GOP governor.  Not saying Ed will win, but it's not impossible.

Mass has a liberal Republican. The Va GOP refuses to moderate.

[SoLongAtlas]

Well in other news the Foy King primary in PW is down to a ten vote separation and probably will be a recount. http://www.fauquier.com/prince_william_times/just-votes-separate-foy-king-in-nd-district/article_5793b914-50b8-11e7-b8d4-9f1e9c2599a9.html

[SoLongAtlas]

This is better for Ds than I thought. 59.3% D turnout in VA-05 seems a bit high to be just because of Periello.

^ I couldn't believe Stewart carried VA-10!

He did remarkably well in Loudoun, which is kinda like Fairfax, but a bit more conservative. IDK how well he did in the Fairfax portion though. I'd assume he was crushed there, but I could be wrong.

244 precincts of 244 (100.00%) reporting
Candidate   Votes   Percent
Edward W. "Ed" Gillespie
Republican   18,046   47.87%
Corey A. Stewart
Republican   14,712   39.03%
Frank W. Wagner
Republican   4,940   13.10%

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Index.html

I don't know which Ffx precincts fit into the 10th but here is the link to results by precinct http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20June%20Republican%20Primary/Site/Locality/FAIRFAX%20COUNTY/Governor.html

[SoLongAtlas]

Yeah saw that after I posted it. The second link has the Ffx precinct data. I can't find a map of which Ffx precincts are inside the 10th. VPAP used to have that map but it looks like they took it off.

This site has a highlighted map but it doesn't do precincts you would have to do an overlay https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/VA/10

[SoLongAtlas]

CS really racked up the rural counties, even Prince William (granted his home county). http://www.vpap.org/visuals/vamaps/number-of-voters/?election=8668 Proves he would lose in a landslide if he was the nom via pop count in rural vs. suburban/urban areas of VA.

[SoLongAtlas]

First debate video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM6gb1h2_Bo

[SoLongAtlas]

Great ad from the RN campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-sfBAJ09bU

[SoLongAtlas]

Link to last night's debate (full length) video https://www.c-span.org/video/?434272-1/virgina-gubernatorial-debate

[SoLongAtlas]

Latest mailers the VA GOP is sending out https://twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/915390502337482753

Northam wants to "erase history" and "make life easier for illegals" yada yada

[SoLongAtlas]

Driving back to central Va tonight, I heard Gillespie's latest radio ad slamming Northam for prioritizing statue removal to the tune of "millions that could go to better schools, etc." He is going all in on making Northam look like some far left warrior when he is a moderate. This is all to play up the central Virginia older white vote as well as the undecided WWC. The ad itself was BS and full of near slanders.

[SoLongAtlas]

WaPo piece on the latest attack ads that spin the facts https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/16/in-the-virginias-governors-race-four-pinocchio-attack-ads-on-both-sides/?utm_term=.93b8c4c94328

Gillespie's trick with Norment was especially dirty but it might be effective. I know it has many people downstate labelling Northam as a proponent of crime, no-show Northam, etc. Typical smear job for the low-info voters to drive up turnout. PW and Ffx won't fall for that but off year gubernatorials always have low turnout. I got a Northam donation mailer last night, his last one, that said it was a tie 42-42. I think that is accurate and not spin. This will be a close race.

[SoLongAtlas]

Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

[SoLongAtlas]

Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

Found the video ad of the radio one I heard this morning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10NdvbPVaE8

Typical consultant maneuver that all of his videos have comments disabled.