VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[UncleSam]

I mean the Post is left-leaning, but this shows how strong Northam is honestly. Gillespie clearly has seen internal polling suggesting he is facing enthusiasm / approval / support gaps and has to make a move somewhere, so he is throwing out red meat for the base and hoping that left-leavers in NOVA don't notice / care.

Smart money says they will though and he loses enough moderates to take a fatal hit in Fairfax. Likely / lean D tbh

[UncleSam]

I literally predicted yesterday in the WaPo poll thread that Gillespie would abandon his previous strategy and tack right on confederate monuments.

I'm a bit surprised everyone here is either surprised or thinks this is a poor strategy. Running as a moderate hero works when you're ahead in money and can define your opponent. Once your opponent has a money advantage, however, people who are disinclined to like candidates from your party will 'see through you' (see: bagel's post a few posts back) and vote for your opponent anyway.

So of course Gillespie tacked right, he needs Stewart voters and right-wingers to show up in spades since he feels that any opening he might've had two months ago with left-leaning voters has been totally shut down by Northam's spending advantage over the last month or so - indeed, if I had to guess I'd bet that Gillespie and co. are really wishing they had spent more energy fundraising through August, and feel like they blew through their funds way prematurely.

Obviously all of this is great news for Northam since all he needs to have happen now is left-leaning voters show up in a midterm where they hate the president, which historically has been an excellent bet. Gillespie is probably hoping he will get a revival of grassroots support over October which, combined with a late spending and ad push to make one last token effort towards right-leaning moderates, might cobble together a large enough coalition in a low-turnout election.

I don't think the strategy is bad so much as the situation, basically. Northam played this one well and deserves a lot of credit - he was getting second-guessed right through August for his refusal to blow through funds and a relative lack of on-the-ground campaigning, but he read the state of the race well and positioned himself to basically just have to not make a monumental blunder that turns off left-leaners in the last week or two of the race.

Basically I predict that Gillespie will spend the next week or two rallying his base and fundraising while Northam buries him with ads in NOVA and The Hampton Roads areas, then Gillespie will make one last attempt to appeal to moderates (and in particular libertarians) over the final stretch. If Stewart and Trump don't actively endorse him in the next week or so I think it's a death knell for Gillespie because it'll mean his base doesn't care, and even if that happens if the final polls don't turn towards him a bit (indicating leaners coming back to him) he's finished a well.

Likely D

[UncleSam]

Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.

Articles from The Daily Beast are little more than propaganda for the progressive cause. In this case, the angle is that Northam is not progressive enough, hasn't consolidated the Bernie Sanders wing of the party and so is due to underperform (while remaining clear that he remains a prohibitive favorite if you read it carefully). In other words, a click-baity and self-contradictory article intended to perpetuate progressive talking points.

Northam is clearly ahead and he is clearly not ahead by 13. His spending advantage in September massively bolstered his chances and has forced a strategy change from Gillespie that is obviously a desperado play. Northam was never a sure thing to be elected and there are shades of Hillary Clinton here, but Hillary, frankly, would have won the election at most points in the fall, with perhaps only a few weeks around mid-late September and early November (when it was held) where she would have lost. Northam would win if the election were held today and is narrowing avenues for his opponent to win in the process, which is all you can do as a candidate. People change their minds and opinions of who to vote for very quickly and sometimes over things outside of your control, but Northam has managed to win the fundraising game and is thus piling on ad after ad targeting the same voters Gillespie has based his entire campaign around - moderates. If Gillespie tacks right then Northam will move in on right-leaners, and if he tacks left Northam will use the image he is crafting of Gillespie to nip that in the bud.

Don't get me wrong, Gillespie is very saavy and knows what he has to do to give himself the best possible chance. Just he never had the same fundraising level or support Northam did in this race, and is going to have to rely on a surge in base voter support or a Northam mistake to have a chance. I doubt even in the best case for Northam that it'll be more than a 5 or 7 point, however - Virginia is not that far gone for the GOP.

[UncleSam]

I believe that Gillespie could be at a 2 point deficit among Likely voters in a favorable sample (ie one where he does better than the true population mean). The margin of error of this poll overlaps with those from more reliable (as in all other) pollsters.

That being said this is probably an internal of some kind or methodologically inaccurate due to various causes. It's hard to believe that Gillespie is actually within a few points right now (5 or 6 is probably the true mean of polling difference).

The question will be how many unlikely voters and those unwilling to state a preference break for Gillespie at the end. I'll bet it'll be a disappointing number as of now.

[UncleSam]

Northam is in a very strong position - expect Gillespie to moderate now that he has secured the base / Bannon / Trump and Stewart is being pressured to endorse him, and expect this strategy to fail. Fairfax and Prince William will bury Gillespie, though I think he will do alright in the Hampton Roads area.

[UncleSam]

Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Both parties lie about each other all the time. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But if anyone really thinks making an Olympic long jump of a logical leap and then labeling your opponent something outrageous is remotely out of the mainstream, well, news flash, it isn't and it is done constantly by both sides.

Just some people are dumb enough to believe it / support it when it comes from a campaign or candidate they agree with.

[UncleSam]

Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!

Keep drinking the kool aid fam lol

Every political candidate from both major parties have pulled this bullsh**t continuously for centuries. The fact that you keep believing them is why.

[UncleSam]

Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!

Not to mention that a candidate for governor should probably be held to a higher standard than random posters on uselectionatlas.org, but hey, we're in the era of Trump now. Anything goes!

It was the Hillary Clinton campaign for president and the NY Times who were the biggest proponents of this line of attack

Either way I think liberals massively underestimate just how unlikeable being snarky, reactionary, and void of critical thought in their responses makes them to most people.

Try to understand what someone is saying before snap responding and you'll get a much broader (and more cynical) perspective on the world. Hillary Clinton lied, Donald Trump lied, Ed Gillespie is lying and Northam is too. Trusting politicians on conveniently-timed slander is just perpetuating its' usefulness.

[UncleSam]

Somewhat unrelated, but UncleSam, aren't you the guy who said Laura Ingraham was a Virgin Mary-like figure to Appalachian voters or something? Do you still believe this?

That seems fairly reasonable, hard core right wingers love her in a way that defies logic (as in most things they love). I don't see why things would be any different now, unless you're referring to some event or poll I am unfamiliar with.

Doesn't mean she'd have a chance statewide though.

[UncleSam]

Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!

Keep drinking the kool aid fam lol

Every political candidate from both major parties have pulled this bullsh**t continuously for centuries. The fact that you keep believing them is why.

I mean there are over a million links to the video where Trump admits to sexual assault. Maybe you missed it?

Because men with inflated and fragile egos have never claimed to be more 'machismo' and sexually successful than they actually are to other dudes with similarly fragile egos and zero respect for women.

Seriously lol if you think that's anywhere close to an 'admission' of anything then idk it just points toward cognitive dissonance with respect to Trump's mental fragility. I'm not saying I know what happened or that he is innocent / not a piece of sh**t regardless, I'm saying it's not a tenable or logically consistent position to assume that Trump wasn't full of sh**t on this point but is all the other times he speaks.

[UncleSam]

What exactly has Northam uh, lied about with regard to Enron Ed Gillespie? Like I said in a different thread, false equivalencies are powerful weapon deployed by closeted Republicans such as yourself.

Two points in response
1. Northam's assertion that Ed Gillespie is associated with Enron in any meaningful way is every bit as spurious (if less bombastic) as Gillespie's claim that Northam 'supports' child molesters. Northam supports voting rights for felons, which in some cases are child molesters. Gillespie lobbied for Enron fifteen years ago and before Enron did anything illicit. Both are logical jumps and effectively straight bullsh**t, even if technically both are 'true', whatever that means anymore.
2. Why would I feel any need to be a 'closeted Republican' lol, we are on an anonymous political website meant for expressing your thoughts freely. This sort of group think and 'purge' mentality is blitheringly stupid when the reality is that most people hold beliefs consistent with both major parties, depending on the topic.

In any case, this discussion has veered generally away from the topic at hand (the VA Governor's race), so I'll stop responding to baseless assertions vaguely attacking my ideological purity or ability to read.

And yes, these recent ads show strong hints that Gillespie views himself as a heavy underdog presently. Expect him to either go all out on SW Virginia by calling in Trump or all-out on NOVA with transportation focus on the last few weeks. Northam needs to simply put forth a generic positive vision for Virginia with some transportation and health care specifics and he should coast to a small but significant win.

[UncleSam]

Said this previously but race-baiting in a state with an overwhelmingly white and largely rural population is true idiocy. Of course moderate whites will get offended more at ads calling their uncles / cousins in rural Virginia racist hicks more than they will get offended by sex offender ads, one of those more directly relates to their own personal experience. Similarly, I wouldn't expect a Latino voter to have as visceral a reaction to this ad (at least in a negative manner) as to an MS-13 ad or to Donald Trump bashing immigrants.

People are more offended by things which directly insult them, news flash at 11. And saying that 'anyone offended by this ad wasn't voting for us anyway' is one of the main lines of Purge group thought that lost Hillary significant numbers of Obama voters. People don't like being told who they 'actually' support or will vote for and don't like when they're told, in effect, they're not good enough to vote for the Democrat and were probably going to vote for the Republican anyway. Then what happens? Surprise, those people vote for the other party not because they like Republicans or their policies but specifically as a f!%k you to the Democrats.

Democrats need to go back to being the big-tent party of Obama. Say what you want about his presidency, but it is undeniable that he knew how to appeal to people without pissing anyone off or burning any bridges. And if you can convince even 5% or 10% of the people you suspect won't vote for you to either not vote for your opponent or to actually end up giving you a chance, that's how you turn a nail-biter into a 6-10 point win in a light blue state.

Republicans win when identity politics is a primary issue and it always astounds me how dumb Democrats are with regard to this. Yes, it's not 'fair' but the simple reality is people react more negatively to perceived attacks on their own race than against others', and there are more White people in Virginia and across the country than there are minorities. This sort of ad will run well in about 25 - 30 years when the Latino population tops 20% and the White population dips below 50%, but until then Dems do need to stay on issue to win and Republicans need to drag Dems down to their level to win.

[UncleSam]

The other problem is Northam's best play is probably to ignore it and hope people forget. The reality is that if he condemned the ad the base would rebel and he would lose votes, while if he openly supports it it will just make matters worse. The ad makes clear the disparities among the leftmost supporters of Northam and the moderates at just about the worst possible time.

The indictments might end up being a godsend for Northam honestly, in that they will allow more liberal networks to focus on national factors that play well for him vs local factors that may be swinging against him.

I'm gonna make a prediction: Gillespie will, now that he can probably count on the support of rural whites, release an end-of-campaign message as very similar to the one Donald Trump blanketed Michigan with near the end of the race last November, essentially just outlining his positive plans for Virginia (look for Transportation and economic growth messaging in particular) and trying to make the most recent image of him in voters' minds be a positive one. It's a campaign tactic that has worked for the GOP before (run negative, negative, negative right up to the week of the election, then close with a positive message), and it's a play the Democrats must prepare for - there won't be enough time to cut an uplifting Northam ad in response, and it looks really bad if a negative ad from one party runs concurrently with a positive one from the other right before the election.

Gillespie knows what he is doing and I feel like either Northam doesn't have as good control of his campaign as I previously thought, or external forces beyond his control are sabotaging him.

I think this will be a wild week.

[UncleSam]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

[UncleSam]

https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_nov_2017

47/47, Gillespie leading by high single digits among independents. Sample seems fairly consistent with national polls on a trump approval (36/53).

Much worse poll for Northam than previous ones, honestly. If 'independents' are still breaking towards Republicans in Virginia regardless of disliking Trump and Northam started with a smaller lead than Warner or Clinton this could be bad for him.

Still think Northam pulls it out in the end but I actually think there is a strong chance Gillespie wins if the election were held today. We will see whether the final news cycle of the race brings anything interesting with it - I'll bet Northam can't really decline any further among independents without a serious gaffe, so if he can just right the ship and close with a positive message I'll be the gets back just enough support to win in a state that should not be this close and should never have been close.

I thought Northam was the stronger candidate in the primary, but I'm having my doubts now. I wonder if his saying he will sign a sanctuary cities ban bill might actually help him among independents - I doubt many sanctuary citiy supporters would vote for someone else anyway, and it might end up being a now tactical ploy to blunt one of Gillespie's strongest and most-founded attack lines in the lead up to the election. Could also backfire in base turnout of course, but we will see.

[UncleSam]

Idk look at the presidential race way more Republicans were against Trump than Democrats against Clinton

Both parties fight amongst themselves from time to time, idont think either has a huge advantage in terms of 'unity'.