VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Oryxslayer]

Uhh Loudoun just went from 90 precincts reporting to 48 on NYT.

[Oryxslayer]

Prince William just dropped almost everything.

Tied on D side, Heavy Stewart on the Rs.

[Oryxslayer]

Justin Fairfax and Ralph Northam officially have my endorsement now. I want Bryce Reeves and Corey Stewart to win their primaries though. I think they are the weakest in a general. But omg look at Corey Stewart the dark horse go!

I'm just finding it funny that the table turned on Gillespie and suddenly he is the one in a nail biter that nobody thought was competitive.

[Oryxslayer]

Since it looks like the Reps may head to a recount - what the rules regarding those in Virgina?

[Oryxslayer]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

Considering the last Monmouth poll had Northan+5, a 6+ swing to the right is unlikely, especially since nothing notable happened in the past two weeks really. Gillespie certainly could gain ground though.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's DDHQs VA delegate map - done by James Miles Coleman.  Note they rate district 02, and 42 as safe dem pickups.

[Oryxslayer]

And here is Cooks analysis from a few weeks ago.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/why-virginias-delegate-races-could-be-most-telling-2017-elections

Overall, I think it goes Sabato -> Cook -> DDHQ in the projections from fewest to greatest amount of expected gains. Sabato seems to be leaning towards 6-7, Cook 7-8, DDHQ 8-10.

[Oryxslayer]

Billionaire Jeff Greene is still said to be considering a run for FL-GOV, he ran for Senate in 2010 and lost the primary to Kendrick Meek. I am not impressed with Gwen Graham, her fundraising has been weak and she does not seem to be an inspiring candidate. FL is an incredibly expensive state to run in so having a self funder might not be so bad. Levine is also independently wealthy.

Wrong thread.

[Oryxslayer]

Northam will have the TV advantage in the last week:

The most interesting thing I think is how little the Latino Victory issue is going to be. Over the next week they are going to spend 32K only in NOVA - itself a drop compared to 2.3 Million being spent by Northam and 1.96 Million being spent by Gillespie. How much airtime do you think 32K gives you in one of the nations most expensive media markets in the last week of a campaign?  If these buys were not reserved in advance, they they could be even more limited.

So the ad is only playing in NOVA for starters, the one area of the state where its issues actually make sense. The monetary spending suggests it won't get the airtime it needs compared to all the other partisan attacks  in the region: Northam and Gillespie, Fairfax and Vogel, Herring and Adams, in addition to all the competitive HoD races currently in NOVA. Its looking like the only people who are really going to see and vividly remember the Latino Victory ad are those that see it online through their partisan networks - Democrats and Republicans who already have their mind made up before watching it.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe you guys missed my analysis earlier, but I fail to see how this ad will dramatically alter the race. It orogionally only had 32K behind it in NOVA, miniscule compared to the 4.5 million being spent by Gillesipe and Northam combined in that market. Now with it cut, not even those voters will see it. Rather, the primary viewers of the Latino Victory ad before, and after it being cut are partisans - mainly out of state. If you are on the right or the left you will see the ad in your political/social feed, linked by someone wanting to make a point. But you have already decided which way to vote, and if you are going to vote. This is arguably why I think Northam doesn't need to mention the ad: they were not directly connected to him, they ran the ad for a very limited window of time, and mentioning them will draw unwanted attention.

What is the local news in VA even talking about? This ad? Or the Mueller investgation? Or the NY attack? Or local campaign goings on in the final days? Or tax reform? Or the HoD?

[Oryxslayer]

While the discussion is mainly on Latino Priorities, DDHQ decided to update their HoD projections.



8 seats moved towards the dems, 8 towards the pubs.

Overall, their projection now looks like a D gain of 9 to 11, a rather large swing.

Read more here: https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/va-house-of-delegates-updates-1031/

Most interesting I think is their analysis of HD 100 (East Shore Delmarva tossup seat), which has the R incumbent barely raising money at all. Certainly the moves of one who either expects an easy victory, or is expecting the Northam regional base to turnout and he never had a chance.

[Oryxslayer]

Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

Now THIS is bad.

No its not. Republicans could run on a platform of leveling San Francisco and almost half the country would cheer. People are only outraged when Democrats do it

Half the country, but almost none of California.

You can’t call the most important part of the state enemy territory.

He can.

Republicans always get away with insulting city dwelling folk.

Yes they do because they never have to compete in those territories. Republicans can criticize SF, LA,  Chicago, or NY all they want because they never have any hope of winning there in any race. The loss of votes in those cities doesn't hurt the Republican party in any way, locally or in the electoral college. The votes gained in areas that benefit the Republican party are more important then the ones lost in the cities. However demonizing a area that is part of your state and has the chance to vote against you in 5 days doesn't seem like the soundest strategy.

Of course, I think this whole thing is relatively minor. Just like Latino Victories, this issue is minor compared to the Mueller talks earlier this week, or just regular policy issues that voters have been bombarded with for several months.

[Oryxslayer]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

[Oryxslayer]

Larry Sabato got a good op-ed out on the on VA and NJ. He seems to think that Chesterfield is the county to watch. If Gillespie is in the high single digits he'll be close or might win. Cuccinelli and Gillespie in 2014 got 9% in Chesterfield and still lost.

I read it. I think better indicators might be Loudon and Virginia Beach. Northam claims a strong regional support in the tidewater, and historically had a margin n Virginia Beach similar to his statewide margin. Gillespie has a personal draw in NOVA, and Loudon broke for him in 2014 despite Gillespie losing the state - a rarity in the modern era. If one candidate is winning them both, then they should win in the end. In they are split, I suspect the margins in Chesterfield and early margins in Fairfax/Prince William will be the next best indicators of victory.

Of course all of this is moot if Northam is ahead with 70-80% of precincts in - when most of the state has reported but not much of Fairfax.

The early margin in Prince William is actually an extraordinarily bad indicator. Romney was leading 49-49 in Prince William with about a third of the vote in there, only to lose it 41-57 by the end of the night. Trump was within single digits in the early Prince William numbers, but proceeded to lose the county by 21 points.  Gillespie looked like he was going to win the county for most of election night 2014, only to lose it 48-50 as the final ballots came in.

I....I'm surprised I don't know that. For the past several VA elections, my focus has always been on the Tidewater cities, Richmond suburbs, Fairfax, and Loudon. I typically pass over the other counties (rurals, independent cities) as reports rise. I seem to recall from past elections that PW reported like Fairfax (small start, big drop, then a triccle of late precincts) though this could be wrong as well.

[Oryxslayer]

I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

I disagree with your end analysis, but yeah, this last week has been hell to watch. Its like both campaigns realized that they didn't want to leave any bullets left in the chamber - so they fired them all at once.

[Oryxslayer]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

That’s mostly what I’m referring to, yeah.

There could be a chance to take back the state Senate in 2019, and if Northam wins the GOP would just kick the can to 2022 in hopes for a Republican Gov. They could literally wait until April 2022 to draw the maps. So Ds have three hurdles to get fair maps win in 2017, win in 2021, or flip one of the chambers.

On the flip side, if Northam wins, and Dems make reasonable strides in the HoD, there is a very good chance of a D trifecta in 2021. So what happens in 4 days arguably determines what tge maps could look like in 4 years.