VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

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Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's

Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

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https://medium.com/@brendanlilly/heads-up-an-impending-disaster-in-virginia-99a67afaa8a4

Here's the link to the article; which basically says that Northam's campaign has absolutely no message beyond being a 'nice guy who's a doctor' and that he's getting hammered over his record at the state development agency. I did think that at least Perriello had some fight in the primary (and had some decent campaign ads) whilst Northam's seemed to be 'I worked with X democratic interest group'.

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I was talking to miles about the race he told me that both candidates suck mainly cause northam has no message unless you count him attacking Gillespie to trump I told him my prediction with a 0.3% win for Gillespie he sort of laughed about but yesterday he messaged me telling me that I should have listened to you again coming from someone who lives in Virginia.

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A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.

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A lot of people are talking out of their ass about this race. I think I'll trust like 50 polls that just came out within the last week over some rando on Twitter who only has 55 tweets. I guess certain people wish this race produced more drama, but that's not what you're gonna get with these two candidates.

You can keep talking all you want about you're fake polls but the fact is Virginia is NOT as blue as everyone says just remember you're garbage polls come Election Day I mean look at the 2016 polls in Virginia some had Hillary up 12 points,warner was up by 10 only won by 0.9 just stop with you're fake Virginia polls.

You have no idea what you are talking about, the polls nailed Virginia in 2016:



 

Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary

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Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's

Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

He's going to lose by about 5%, NOVA will destroy him with the incumbent orange monkey in office right now.

This.

Just you wait Gillespie is going to way outperform the polls even if he loses he going to do how he did in 2014.

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Look at the 2 way race polls there are a couple that have her up 9 points then go on Wikipedia VA polls to see the 11 point lead for Hillary

You mean the VA polls taken around the time of the AH tape, or the August ones taken around the time of the Kahn drama? Why wouldn't the polls show a Clinton surge then? Do you think the race was exactly the same then as it was on election day? It's not like the election is the same every single day of the season.

Chances are, if the election was held during the AH tape controversy, she would have won by close to 10 points (or more) in Virginia.

Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?

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Those polls don't count I'm talking 3 weeks out from the election.
Again the polls in 2013 and 2014 were wrong so why should I believe fake polls?

But that was still basically during the AH tape controversy (if you're talking about around Oct 18-20th) - it's not like that whole ordeal's effects on Trump's electoral support only lasted a few days or a week, and if you remember that particular point in October was filled to the brim with Trump scandals that just kept stacking up. It was a very active October. I'm not even sure exactly what poll you're talking about, either. Quinnipiac was the last one I see in RCP's 2-way polls showing double digits for her, which was taken Oct 20th - 26th. Having one poll you think was absurd at the time, and then using that to say all the polls were wrong despite them clearly not being wrong, is kind of ridiculous.

The RCP average for the 2-way and 4-way in Virginia 2016 was very accurate. It was only off by 0.1% in the 2-way. Just because it was off in 2014 and to a lesser degree, in 2013, doesn't mean it's always wrong. Think about this, if you're always going to call the polls "fake" just because they were wrong in 2014, you're predictions really become based on nothing more than what you want to happen. That is not really a good way to go about this.

But, you know, to each their own. If you think all the polls are always wrong, there is nothing really to debate here. Your views on this race are locked in, with no way to challenge them, absent Gillespie massively imploding beyond any doubt (and even what you consider 'beyond any doubt' is ambiguous)

I never said northam can't win I have the race as toss up right but I honestly think ed is going to pull a upset but again the polls in 2014 never had a poll with Gillespie leading tied or less then 3 points behind the GOP thought the race was a lost cause while they dumped millions into New Hampshire and that race wasn't even that close.
Also not all polls are bad but State polls are 100% look at 2016 Pennsylvania or Michigan or Nevada or Wisconsin those polls were all junk.

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Here we go another post from a newspaper saying northam is doing awful with people outside the population centers http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/worried-the-dems-are-ignoring-rural-virginia-local-party-chairman/article_29569b50-2686-5ed7-a0f9-acf939902014.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

This is why Gillespie is going to win by 0.3 points.

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Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.

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No idea who this pollster is but.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

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https://mobile.twitter.com/EdWGillespie/status/918612254106505217
Mike pence to campaign with Gillespie October 14th.

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http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452720/why-virginia-democrats-are-right-be-nervous

Not the most reliable source, but it will certainly be a tight race.

We'll see, but Northam is right to be cautious given recent VA polling errors.  The jury is still out on whether they are missing Republican turnout or missing presidential opposition party turnout, though.

Kaine beat his polls in 2005:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html

It appears Warner beat his October polls in 2001 as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/us/lead-narrows-in-virginia-governor-s-race.html

Webb barely underperformed his polls within the MOE in 2006 (+0.4 vs. +1.5 in polling):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html

Then Obama comes in and McDonnell beats his polls substantially vs. Deeds:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/va/virginia_governor_mcdonnell_vs_deeds-1055.html
Still unclear if it's a Republican thing or an opposition party thing.  I guess we will find out.

But in the most recent Senate race, Warner got warned.

Don't forget 2013 as well McAuliffe in the RCP Average was up by 6 in the no third party polls and up by 6.7 with third party's https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html

Won by only 2.5 points

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To everyone making fun of me saying that Gillespie would win how do you feel now?

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To everyone making fun of me saying that Gillespie would win how do you feel now?

I made this prediction make on September 11th
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

100% stand by it now.

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Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

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Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014

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Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014

But were dead on correct in 2016.

I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

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If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.

What has Gillespie done to get racists excited?

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Yep, what we definitely need is to lose another governorship. Well, whatever if that's what happens. I've learned, the hard way, not to read too much into polls unless they're all on the extremes in one way or another. We'll see on election day.

Don't worry you will probably gain New Jersey and the Washington state senate as well so a net gain of 1

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49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.

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Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014

But were dead on correct in 2016.

I know but off Elections always underestimate the republicans last poll that Gillespie had a lead i believe was march or April so this is th first that's different also interesting barely any undecided voters.

off Elections don't underestimate Republicans.

I ment off Election polls under estimate the republicans.

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Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

No one cares.

You cared enough to reply. Sorry you keep supporting boring losers over the smart choice.

Every race cannot be turned into a proxy war over the last Democratic presidential primary.

I agree, I just support whoever I view as the best candidate. Northam could've taken the stage with Bernie 100 times and it wouldn't have made him any less of a limp candidate.

You do realize outside of Charlottesville Bernie campaigning for northam would hurt him right

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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.

Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.

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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.

Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.

And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.

How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?