VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Prediction:

Northam + 6
House of delegates: +8 dem

I think Gillepsie has been running a better campaign so he will overperform the house of delegates. I could see Northam doing worse than +6, but pretty sure house of delegates will be at least +8 dem.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The reason why that race is so close is the sample is completely different from what Virginia usually is.

The demographics of that poll is 28% democrat 30% republican 43% independent.

In 2016, the demographics in the election were 40% democrat 33% republican 26% independent.

You guys need to look at the crosstabs and not just the numbers. This sample is completely different from Virginia. And it shows that Northam is doing better than Hillary among independents, which is a good sign.

It's like when you guys were going crazy over that poll that had 10% more democrats than republicans and then saying "WOW GILLEPSIE IS GOING TO GET OWNED".

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Interesting Gillespie surged in western Virginia and eastern Virginia up slightly in central Virginia down in northern Virginia.
The polls says that the MS-13 ad is working.

The samples are completely different this time around (+2% more repubs than dems; in 2016, it was +7% more dems than repubs). This poll is actually showing that Northam is up among independents. A few months ago Northam was consistently losing independents.

Don't forget that Virginia polls overestimate the dems look at 2006 2013 2014

I have no idea what the polls were like in 2006 / 2013 / 2014 (crosstabs wise), but I'm telling you, the demographics polled in this sample are not representative of Virginia. Look at the crosstabs. 28% Dem - 30% Repub - 43% independent. Virginia in 2016 was 40% dem - 33% repub - 24% independent. If Virginia changed so drastically in 1 year, there'd be news stories about people changing their party from dem/repub to independent.

I could poll 100% republicans in California and get like a 90 - 10 result in a given race for the republicans. But that wouldn't be very useful.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

northams finished boys. without the DFA nomination no one is going to turn out to vote for him.

gillepsie wins by 12%. sucks to be a liberal in 2017!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.

nobody (as in the vast majority of americans who aren't permanently following politics every second) actually knows who the hell DFA is

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Early vote map:



Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

gonna put in my final guess: northam + 6

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Polls are all over the place but I'm gonna guess +6 Northam

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why the heck is this Race so close?

Ed Gillespie is doing the trumpian strategy to win and increase turnout amongst republican rural and suburban voters to win by appealing to racial sentiments without it being overtly racist.

Oh just stop. The only racism we have seen on display was the Northam camp smearing rural voters as uneducated hateful murderous hicks - which has become the accepted bigotry of the modern democratic party.

Your party has endorsed marxist identity politics - an ideology that seeks to create a society of status based hierarchy along racial and gender lines. It's unbelievably toxic and racist. It attempts to create tiered citizenship status with tiered rights based on race, gender, and perceived grievances.

Your party routinely accuses white people of having 'white privilege'. Your party tells them that they can't wear certain outfits for Halloween or dress a certain way because of 'appropriation'. Your party accuses them of being inherently racists. Your party tells them to 'check your privilege' whenever they are suffering and dare to voice their complaints. Your party is constantly telling them that white men are the cause of every single problem in the world.

So don't get mad when they abandon your party in droves. Your party decided to make them public enemy number one. Whites aren't leaving democrats so much as democrats are purging them out.

so dumb people on twitter/tumblr are now the democratic party? that's just dumb dude. cut it with the garbage propaganda. none of the politicians say stuff like this.

i wouldn't say gillepsie is being racist, but why are his advertisements a civil war reenactment as opposed to talking about how to actually help the lives of Virginians? gop being the party of civil war reenactors as opposed to coming up with policies that help americans like me has help turn me off pretty hard from them.