VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s a tight race, folks. Did we expect something else?

Hell a one day average of today’s polls is Northam +3. That seems reasonable to me.

Exactly.  There should be some spread among polls.  If Northam is ahead by a few points, then any result from a narrow Gillespie lead to a high-single-digit lead is a reasonable poll result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think that poll is wrong and I'm going with the majority of polls that show the race is close, Gillespie is not leading though.

It will be amusing if after all these divergent polls, the actual result is close to the poll average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The real way to settle this: Monmouth plays basketball at Quinnipiac on Dec. 28.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News poll:

Northam (D)  49%
Gillespie (R)   42
Hyra (L)          1

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/920772824834412545

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Video of blocks-long line for the Northam-Obama rally in Richmond: https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/921114486706266113

[GeorgiaModerate]

Presented for what it's worth (which I think is not much, given the number of undecided):

Hampton U, Oct 18-22, 750 RV

Gillespie (R) 41%
Northam (D) 33%
Don't know/Refused 27%

They also have Trump approval at 39/56.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wason Center Tracking poll, Oct 27

Northam (D) 50  (+2)
Gillespie (R) 43   (-1)
Hyra (L) 3 (nc)

Previous results from this poll:

Oct 17: Northam 48-44
Oct 9: Northam 49-42
Sep 25: Northam 47-41

[GeorgiaModerate]

From a senior adviser to Rand Paul:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

What effect, if any, will there be on this race from the reported indictments in the Mueller investigation?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone's acting like Gillespie's gonna overperform the polls again massively or something and treating it as if it's destined to be within 3 points

The polling average doesn't need to be off by anywhere near as it was in 2014 for Gillespie to win though. The 2014 averages were roughly Warner +9, this year the average is somewhere between Northam +2.75 and Northam +4 (several "fair" calculations are possible). As I said upthread, under most calculations, Northam can no longer withstand the entire 2013 polling error of 4%. That being said, I understand that betting on polling errors is a poor strategy at times, and will keep the race in the Lean D category as long as the average stays above half the 2013 polling error (2%).

if you take out the two wack polls with Gillespie up, Northam's lead is over 7 points. Those are the ones screwing the average. Hence, expecting Gillespie to outperform an average like that is ridiculous. I can't wait til this race is over so we can stop this stupid notion that only Republicans overperform averages in off years.

The Hampton poll with Gillespie+8 looks strange.  Nate Cohn has pointed out that the internal numbers in it don't add up, so I think it's reasonable to discount that one.  But if you throw out the other poll with a Gillespie lead, you should also throw out the Q poll with Northam +14, although I'd keep both of them.  They're probably just outliers, which do happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Q poll

Northam (D) 53 (nc)
Gillespie (R) 36 (-3)
Hyra (L) 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reporter thrown down, arrested by police over Gillespie filming

[GeorgiaModerate]

No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.

Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...

You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.

Is Northam likely to win by 17?  No, that's one of the extremes of the polling range.  But just because that one outcome is unlikely, it doesn't mean that all the polls are wrong.  The vast majority of them have had Northam ahead; the RCP average has him at +3.3, which I think is pretty close (I put 51-47 in the prediction thread).

If you really think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning, perhaps you should buy some shares on that outcome (it's currently at 0.28 on Predictit).

[GeorgiaModerate]

New WaPo poll

Northam (D) 49
Gillespie (R) 44
Hyra (L) 4

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

I'll see you, and raise you Florida 2000.

[GeorgiaModerate]

VirginiaModerate (I think) guesstimated upthread that this would give Gillespie 5,000 votes.  If true, that's not going to make the difference unless this race is a lot closer than everyone thinks.  There were over 2 million votes cast in the 2013 gubernatorial election.

(FWIW, I believe race-baiting ads are deplorable no matter who they come from.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is way too soon after 2016 for me to draw any conclusions from early voting.

Agreed, only conclusion I can make is that turnout should be higher than 2013.

Virginia is an excuse only early vote / absentee state. One of those excuses is work or traveling out of state on election day, which thousands of people in NoVA do when they head into DC for work.

Is there a regional breakdown available for early voting in 2013?

[GeorgiaModerate]

KKKorey Stewart calls Democrats the party of "criminals, communists, crackheads, and weirdos" as he mocked a transgender candidate.

Both sides do it. I am so proud to be a centrist.

Me too.  But I have to say that in recent years, the right has been more egregious about this kind of thing than the left has.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

Agreed.  I’d rather include Qunnipac and Fox News while removing Conway’s firm (a bad-faith outlier).  It’d be a far more accurate average.  As a rule, removing good-faith outliers defeats the whole idea of polling averages since the average is supposed to take into account that there will always be good-faith outliers.  Wulfric is basically unskewing polls to reflect what he thinks the outcome will be and the statistical science shows that doing so generally produces less accurate results, regardless of what the outcome is in this race.  It’d be like if you tossed every poll showing Trump ahead in Michigan in October 2016.

That Hampton's poll is crazy. 27% undecided and no Libertarian, but I agree it was done in good faith.

Hampton and Quinnipiac are both using RDD sampling instead of RBS.  I'd throw them both out (and Conway's poll) but keep Fox.  Their polling has historically been solid.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fairfax County absentee numbers through 11/1

23132 ballots mailed out, 10580 returned.  
21544 in-person.
TOTAL: 32124

For comparison, 2013 was:

11897 mailed out, 8307 returned.
17495 in-person
TOTAL: 25802

EDIT: fixed the county name (although "Fairfox" would be a cool name)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/926246292392759296
Is it just me, or are they purposely trying to lose?

I don't know about purposely, but it sure is a badly run campaign.