VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Holmes]

An endorsement from Sanders is good for Periello but I reject the whole "the real margin could actually be 10 - 20 points" argument. Clinton is a real good fit among Virginia Democrats. If Sanders tried harder, he might have made inroads in the western half of the state, but there's not a lot of voters there to begin with, and they were already voting for Trump anyway because it was an open primary.

[Holmes]

Fairfax is an interesting choice. Sanders is probably more useful in the western, more rural areas of the state but NoVA will be the most important region in the primary and has the most votes.

[Holmes]

I feel the same but lately I've been moving more towards Periello.

[Holmes]

Another great ad from Northam goes right after Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDonPK5bJoM

The ad makes a sharp anti-Trump turn about two thirds in.

[Holmes]

Lots of conflicting numbers floating around.

[Holmes]

It's an open primary, so more non-partisans are voting in the competitive Democratic primary, leaving the Republican electorate to have more true believers in it. I don't see it happening though.

[Holmes]

If Stewart is the nominee, the Dem nominee really doesn't even need to campaign, but I highly doubt he actually gets nominated.

I mean, VA Dems could even flip the lower house of the legislature with Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket.

Yeah, if Stewart is the nominee I would expect Republicans to lose every seat in Fairfax.

That won't take much. Nominating Stewart shouldn't even be necessary.

[Holmes]

Politico says Dem race is a tossup.

Insightful.

[Holmes]

Another victory for La Resistance

They both ran against Trump but ok werk

[Holmes]

I guess the moral of the story is that even if you want to be a far right insurgent candidate, you still need some urban support to win.

[Holmes]

Remember when someone posted that a Northam/Perriello recount woukd be perfect for Gillespie?

[Holmes]

I feel like Gillespie will still probably win, but this must be hugely embarrassing.

Probably goes to show that Gillespie is a weak candidate. Northam will be the safe choice. 2009 in reverse.

[Holmes]

Gillespie's pulling away now. That should be that.

I think, especially in states with open primaries, the 2018 primaries may produce more Trumpian candidates than we expect.

[Holmes]

Anyway I'm not going to use the thread to bash Northam, but never again do I want to hear a DLC cuck complain about Bernie not being a "real Democrat."  Bernie and Perriello didn't vote for George Bush twice.

Northam reminds me Charlie Crist: career politician in the sense that he will be anything to further his career.

Quick question: was the LG race supposed to be so close? I never saw any polls for it.

Well it's not like Northam was a Democratic elected official in 2000/2004-- he was a private citizen. A person voting for a different party before running for office is a whole other ball game than switching parties altogether for pure political gain

No, but but he nearly did switch parties a few years ago in quite the public debacle.

Yesterday's miderate Virginia Republicans are today's Democrats.

[Holmes]

It's over. Everyone is calling it for Gillespie.

Yeah it was clear when everything was coming in except Fairfax.

[Holmes]

60% of voters tonight pulled a Democratic ballot: interesting. What did it look like four years ago?

Pro tip:

57% of the voters in the 2016 Presidential primary in Virginia pulled the GOP ballot! Clearly that led to a landslide victory in Virginia.

Enough excuses, own this L.

[Holmes]

This race for Gov in Virginia is going to be shocking. I have no idea who's going to win it will be so competitive.

[Holmes]

I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

[Holmes]

I mean the Post is left-leaning, but this shows how strong Northam is honestly. Gillespie clearly has seen internal polling suggesting he is facing enthusiasm / approval / support gaps and has to make a move somewhere, so he is throwing out red meat for the base and hoping that left-leavers in NOVA don't notice / care.

Smart money says they will though and he loses enough moderates to take a fatal hit in Fairfax. Likely / lean D tbh

You raise a good point. If Gillespie is confident in his support from the base, he's not showing it wih the ads or policy positions he's releasing.

[Holmes]

Just what Gillespie needs!

[Holmes]

I remember last year's GOP "Hillary is ahead in Indiana and Missouri!!" internals.

Unless they release the full poll with methodology, I'm not going to believe it.

[Holmes]

Vox said Gillespie could win-should I be worried?
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/10/16439656/virginia-governor-election-explained

I mean, he could win. There has always been a chance.

[Holmes]

Comstock should just run for Senate. Losing a statewide race is less embarrassing than losing a House seat you've held for a while.

lol there are talks for Trump to campaign for Gillespie. lmao

[Holmes]

No idea who this pollster is but.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Uh.

[Holmes]

Just voted like an hour ago:



I voted for Northam, Fairfax, and Herring for all roughly the same reasons. I strongly approve of how Governor McAuliffe is handling his job, and I would like to see 4 more years of his policies. Seeing how democracy has been deteriorated in a similar state, NC, under a unified GOP government also makes it very hard for me to support any statewide Republicans.

I have to give credit to Jim LeMunyon for making me actually consider my HD-67 vote. He's decent for a Republican, and I'd even say he's excellent on transportation issues, which are of utmost importance for me. Too bad for him that he's a vote to enable the garbage VA GOP HoD, which is totally unacceptable. I also trust that Delaney will be solid on transportation as well. Plus she advocates for the proliferation of 3D-printers, so I had no qualms voting for her.

Is candidate order randomized on ballots? Very interesting how all Democrats got placed at the top for each race on your ballot.