VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Panhandle Progressive]

Corey Stewart (who narrowly lost the Republican primary to Gillespie) who is currently running for the U.S. Senate next year, responded far worse than Donald Trump himself.

https://www.facebook.com/CoreyStewartVA/videos/1893024764047688/

WTF Republicans. YOU.FRAKING.SUCK.

[Panhandle Progressive]

If Corey Stewart was the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee, I wonder if the VA GOP would have forced him to drop out of the race?

I've been thinking about this one ever since Charlottesville march/attack. But Stewart is now running for the U.S. Senate against Kaine. I kinda hope he is the nominee against Kaine. Stewart would be even more doomed than E.W. Jackson was for Lt. Governor four years ago.

[Panhandle Progressive]

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Great point.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Northam made some big ad buys last week:

Sealing the deal.

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Liam Donovan (sharp ex-GOP campaign guru, and NeverTrumper) linked to a medium.com post by a Dem operative in VA who thinks Northam is on a trajectory to lose. Has anyone seen evidence of this? Polls seem to show a consistent 4-5 point lead for Dems

Nope, no evidence, Northam is obviously secure, no need to worry, ignore that fool completely.

TBF I do think Gillespie has made the race close with his ad buys being more substantial than Northam's

Gillespie is going to win this by 0.3%.

He's going to lose by about 5%, NOVA will destroy him with the incumbent orange monkey in office right now.

This.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Between Trump's petulance and the Charlottesville protests/attack, which had the name 'unite the right' I believe the fate of Republicans was sealed (for this fall) before the first fall ad buy was paid for. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's (which was before Charlottesville) I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by 6-8% each. Having said all of this, Gillespie is still someone to watch moving forward. He would be the best candidate (by far---lol at you Corey Stewart) moving forward for the US Senate race against Kaine next year.

Kaine is mega safe, imo.

I'd agree with this if Stewart is the Republican nominee. Not as confident if it's Gillespie.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Here we go another post from a newspaper saying northam is doing awful with people outside the population centers http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/worried-the-dems-are-ignoring-rural-virginia-local-party-chairman/article_29569b50-2686-5ed7-a0f9-acf939902014.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

This is why Gillespie is going to win by 0.3 points.

Ehhh... Clinton also did unprecedentedly awful outside the metro areas. Didn't matter a bit. I don't expect it to change the statewide Dem edge in VA at all.

This. Strong D outcome this year. The only major statewide election (excluding LTGOV & AG) won by Republicans since 2006 was when Bob McDonnell won the governorship. This year won't be the second.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Ultimately there is little to no evidence that the race has changed from where it started: Northam up by a few points. If the final RCP average shows Northam up by 1 or 2, I'd be inclined to give it to Gillespie since Undecided voters broke R in 2013, 2014, and 2016 (Hillary getting <50% was a surprise). But we're not seeing that yet - Northam is currently up 4 in that average, and it has been remarkably stable for months.

That's because Gillespie has done nothing, absolutely nothing to change the dynamic in his favor. Almost running like he wants to lose this race. Northam's win will ensure Democratic governors have been in office 16 of the last 20 years by the time he leaves office. Even if Northam were to end up being a mediocre moderate while in office, I'd take him over Gillespie everytime.

[Panhandle Progressive]

If this mailer is what's needed to get Loudoun and Prince William to vote Gillespie, so be it.

It will absolutely have the opposite effect. NoVA voters won't fall for that crap. Gillespie is grasping at straws in his final month of campaigning. VA is much more diverse than the 'good ole boys' of yesteryear. NO TRACTION FOR GRASPING AT STRAWS GILLESPIE.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Here we go again

https://amp.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

That poll the other day was a junk poll according to insiders Northam is barely ahead
Still toss up.

I doubt even in the best case for Northam that it'll be more than a 5 or 7 point, however - Virginia is not that far gone for the GOP.

I believe it is that far gone for the GOP, this fall specifically. I just don't see a path to Gillespie winning even if he had everything go perfectly for him between now and election day. Since Hillary was able to win by over 5% in Virginia last year, and since Dems had strong primary turnout, about 50% more D voters than R's, I'm gonna go ahead and say Strong D. VA Dems should easily sweep all three races. Trump fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. All races will be won by at least 6-8% each.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Ed will win

Funniest comment I've read all day!

[Panhandle Progressive]

Any predictions on the voter turnout rate? To recap all GOV races since 2001:
2001 - 46.4% turnout - Warner won
2005 - 45% turnout - Kaine won
2009 - 40.4% turnout - McDonnell won
2013 - 43% turnout - McAuliffe won
My prediction is 47 to 48% turnout for 2017. 4 out of (the last) 5 for the Dems.

[Panhandle Progressive]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EdWGillespie/status/918612254106505217
Mike pence to campaign with Gillespie October 14th.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/354968-obama-to-campaign-with-dem-va-governor-candidate

I'd take this one all day every day!

[Panhandle Progressive]

The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.

[Panhandle Progressive]

The takeaway from this election will be how Northam ran up huge margins in the metro areas to essentially guarantee himself winning statewide. Northam will win by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. Same goes for Fairfax and Herring.

If PW and Fairfax vote. Historically, gubernatorial turnout here is like 40%. VB, even as Northam's home base, is a conservative area. If downstate comes out and if turnout is diluted in NoVA, it will be a closer race than people think.

I don't believe it will be closer than people/pollsters think. Dems have the wind at their back this cycle. Reps are running into it. It seems easy to see which group of candidates will come out on top. Still need proof? Look at the June primary results. 6 in 10 VA voters voted for a Democrat. A huge (even gigantic) lead, in summer. It will be at least this same margin in November. All of the Republicans are going down.

[Panhandle Progressive]

New Q poll

Northam (D) 53 (nc)
Gillespie (R) 36 (-3)
Hyra (L) 3

I believe once all the votes are tallied it will result in Northam winning by about half this margin. Northam by about 8 to 8.5%.

[Panhandle Progressive]

No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.

Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...

You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.

Wanna hear a fact? Democrats won 60% of the primary votes.

[Panhandle Progressive]

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%. This is my final prediction.

[Panhandle Progressive]

As of right now (8:45am ET) on PredictIt



In other words...people betting money on this race still believe Northam will win.