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Author Topic: 2018 House Predictions  (Read 13510 times)
arjavrawal
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« on: January 05, 2017, 04:32:07 am »

This is all only what I would hope for.

Democrats have a net gain of 12 seats. They gain the following:

California’s 49th - Doug Applegate defeats Darrell Issa
Arizona’s 2nd - Victoria Steele defeats Martha McSally
Colorado’s 3rd - Gail Schwartz defeats Scott Tipton
Texas’s 23rd - Pete Gallego (or some other Democrat from the area) defeats Will Hurd
Florida’s 18th - Randy Perkins defeats Brian Mast
North Carolina’s 7th - Thomas Mills defeats David Rouzer
Virginia’s 5th - Jane Dittmar defeats Tom Garrett
New York’s 1st - Anna Throne-Holst defeats Lee Zeldin
New York’s 22nd - Kim Myers defeats Claudia Tenney
New York’s 24th - Colleen Deacon defeats John Katko
Wisconsin’s 8th - Eric Genrich defeats Mike Gallagher
Nebraska’s 2nd - Pete Festersen defeats Don Bacon

Targeted by the Democrats, still lost:
Montana’s at-Large - Denise Juneau loses to Matthew Rosendale
California’s 21st - Daniel Parra loses to David Valadao
Maine’s 2nd - Eliot Cutler (who re-registers as a Democrat) loses to Bruce Poliquin
Iowa’s 1st - Swati Dandekar loses to Rod Blum
Iowa’s 3rd - Mike Sherzan loses to David Young
New York’s 19th - Will Yandik loses to John Faso
Minnesota’s 3rd - Terri Bonoff loses to Erik Paulsen
Pennsylvania’s 8th - Shaughnessy Naughton loses to Brian Fitzpatrick
Pennsylvania’s 16th - Christina Hartman loses to Lloyd Smucker
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Jimmie
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2017, 09:41:52 am »

I would not predict individual house races now. Some seats would be quite competitive if opened but safe if incumbent stays on (UT-04).

Democrats probably gain seats in the house in 2018. How many? It could be 5, it could be 47. But net gain of 12 actually does sound reasonable.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2017, 06:05:49 am »

Hard to predict, but I don't see that the Democrats win back the House. Maybe they gain 10 or 15 seats., but not much beyond that.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2017, 12:35:03 pm »

My official prediction

Dems make gains between 4 and 10 seats, but do not capture the House majority. The Democrats fall short in white working class districts they need to be competitive in to take the majority and they dominate their liberal coastal and urban seats, but that adds up to some 200 seats, not 218. Polarization guarantees the GOP House majority in '18.
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2017, 04:05:23 pm »

Do Dems take the house if 2018 is a wave election?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2017, 04:35:34 pm »

-To the OP: There are always some upsets, but I would swap CA-21 and WI-08 for sure. Those two are trending in opposite directions, and Mike Gallagher destroyed someone considered the best possible Democrat by far more than expected. Valadao's district is stampeding left, and if the Senate and Governor races don't have Republicans, turnout will not be on his side either. Also, VA-05 will be a tough one for Democrats to wi against any incumbent not named Virgil Goode. Why NC-07? NC-09 and NC-13 are the Democrats' two best shots at picking up a House seat in North Carolina, after that it's not even close.

-I'll put my (very early) predictions later.
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Castro
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2017, 05:46:58 pm »

Do Dems take the house if 2018 is a wave election?

Big enough wave, yes.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2017, 01:11:25 pm »

Intensely-unpopular, much-feared  Republican President in a midterm election... what could go wrong for the GOP? Everything that can go wrong will go wrong in the election.   
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olowakandi
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« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2017, 04:08:14 pm »

Dems will take 9 govs in AZ, FL, IL, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, and WI and take 220-215 majority in the House.  And it will be a divided senate whomever controls it.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2017, 06:46:24 pm »

My predictions (not going into detail with individual races yet):

Democrats gain 15 or so seats (still short of a majority), from but not limited to the following:
A bunch of CA seats (I think most will fall)
WA-03
WA-08
AZ-02
CO-06
NE-02
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
MO-02
IL-06
IL-12
IL-14
GA-07
FL-26
FL-27
OH-16
WV-03
VA-02
VA-10
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
NJ-02
NJ-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-01
NY-19
NY-22

Just because I didn't mention it doesn't mean I think it's safe, I may have forgotten some.

Republicans gain:
MN-01
One or two of: FL-07, NV-03, AZ-01, NJ-05, IA-02, MN-07, MN-08, PA-17
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olowakandi
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« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2017, 07:39:09 pm »

That's today, but Nov, 2018 is still a long way off
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Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2017, 03:50:39 am »

I don't know which seats exactly will flip but I think Democrats will win the popular vote by around 10%, could be slightly more (they're currently up 7% in the generic ballot) and get at least 220 seats.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2017, 11:07:25 am »

PA 06,07 and 08, CA a bunch and Dems have their secular majority
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Lok
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2017, 12:31:15 am »

I'm sticking with 30-35 net gain for Democrats.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2017, 12:50:00 am »

All incumbents in GA (including Handel) will be re-elected comfortably.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2017, 01:57:03 am »

D+4-10. Polarization is a hell of a drug.
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Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists
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« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2017, 09:49:36 am »

D+40-45.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2017, 12:51:26 pm »

My predictions (not going into detail with individual races yet):

Democrats gain 15 or so seats (still short of a majority), from but not limited to the following:
A bunch of CA seats (I think most will fall)
WA-03
WA-08
AZ-02
CO-06
NE-02
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
MO-02
IL-06
IL-12
IL-14
GA-07
FL-26
FL-27
OH-16
WV-03
VA-02
VA-10
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
NJ-02
NJ-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-01
NY-19
NY-22

Just because I didn't mention it doesn't mean I think it's safe, I may have forgotten some.

Republicans gain:
MN-01
One or two of: FL-07, NV-03, AZ-01, NJ-05, IA-02, MN-07, MN-08, PA-17

Yes, I agree with this prediction (though I am not so sure about the number, I think it will be closer to 9-12 than 15), but in the end I don't think districts like WV-03, GA-07 and IL-12 will be that competitive.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 03:20:38 pm by MT Treasurer »Logged
Castro
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« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2017, 05:32:50 pm »

I think we're going to end up very close to a split House, but right now I think I'm favoring Dems with about a +27 seat gain.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2017, 09:50:34 pm »

D + 15 to 45ish.

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morgankingsley
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« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2017, 07:57:33 pm »

I predict that democrats will gain the senate but not the house
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Lok
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« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2017, 08:07:51 pm »

I predict that democrats will gain the senate but not the house
Lolwut?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #22 on: July 06, 2017, 10:30:10 pm »

Democrats win the national PV but don't get a House majority
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Pericles
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« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2017, 02:50:29 am »

I think it is possible that, based in part on the special election results, many seats with lots of WWC voters will flip to the Democrats with big swings while they may get smaller swings in GOP-held seats with many college-educated white voters who could still support the GOP despite their disapproval of Trump so some California seats for instance could remain in GOP hands.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2017, 07:13:59 pm »

Great analysis.
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