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Author Topic: 2018 House Predictions  (Read 13511 times)
Singletxguyforfun
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« Reply #25 on: July 27, 2017, 11:45:33 am »

No idea at this point, but vulnerable incumbents

Reps: CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-49, AZ-2, TX-23, TX-32, CO-6, WA-3, WA-8, MN-2, NE-2, IA-1, IA-3, KS-3, FL-26, FL-27, GA-6, VA-10, PA-7, PA-8, NJ-3, NJ-11, NY-19, NY-22

Dems: NV-3, NV-4, AZ-1, IA-2, MN-1, MN-7, MN-8, IL-17, FL-7, FL-13, NY-3, NY-18, NY-25, CT-5, NH-1
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #26 on: July 29, 2017, 12:15:41 pm »

No way that Washington third district is going blue even so Jamie is being primaryed from the right
I say the dems pick up 5-14 seats
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Pericles
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« Reply #27 on: November 19, 2017, 11:28:02 pm »

Democratic gains
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
IA-03
IL-06
IL-14
KS-03
KY-06
ME-02
MN-02
MN-03
MT-AL
NE-02
NJ-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-24
OH-01
PA-06
PA-07
PA-16
SC-05
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
UT-04
VA-02
VA-10
WA-08

Republican gains

MN-01

Dems gain 35 seats, Republicans gain 1 seat, net Democratic gain of 34 seats leading to a 47-seat Republican majority in the House becoming a 21-seat Democratic majority.

2018 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 228+34 53.3%
Paul Ryan-Republican: 207-34 42.6%
435 seats
218 for majority
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KhanOfKhans
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« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2017, 12:19:15 pm »

I'm calling it now, Dems will retake the house and have a net gain of at least 30 seats.
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Pericles
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« Reply #29 on: December 04, 2017, 02:31:03 am »

I'm calling it now, Dems will retake the house and have a net gain of at least 30 seats.

How does my prediction look?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #30 on: December 04, 2017, 09:15:57 pm »

No way that Washington third district is going blue even so Jamie is being primaryed from the right
I say the dems pick up 5-14 seats
Lol no
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Castro
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« Reply #31 on: December 05, 2017, 12:20:09 am »

I've been trying to work out some final touches in my spreadsheet for race evaluation, and for now it has given me this order of flipping for Republican-held seats:

Tier 1: Democrats are 100% guaranteed winning this seat
FL-27

Tier 2: Barring a major surprise, these should flip
CA-49
CA-25
VA-10
CA-48

Tier 3: I expect most of these to flip in a decent Democratic performance
NJ-2
NY-19
FL-26
NE-02
AZ-02
WA-08
CO-06
TX-07
NY-22
MN-03

Tier 4: I expect most of these to flip in a very good Democratic performance
TX-23
MI-11
MN-02
IA-01
CA-10
CA-39
TX-32
NJ-11
CA-45

Tier 5:
I expect some of these to flip in a very good Democratic performance
PA-07
NJ-07
VA-02
NY-24
------> Cutoff point for my prediction, D+28.
IA-03
PA-15
ME-02

Tier 6: In a wave election, I think a few of these might flip
MI-08
UT-04
PA-16
IL-12
KY-06
KS-02

Tier 7: In a wave election, we could see a couple of these flip
KS-03
PA-06
MT-AL
PA-08
CA-21
NC-09
GA-06
VA-05
NY-11
VA-07
WI-16
CA-04
NC-02
CA-50

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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #32 on: December 05, 2017, 12:34:36 pm »

Using Castro's system, which I really like, here's my predictions. It's hard at this time to predict the outcome of all the races, but there's a few I can give my best guess on:

Tier 1
FL-27

Tier 2
AZ-02
CA-49
CA-10
CA-15
VA-10

Tier 3
FL-26
IA-01
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NJ-02
NY-19
NY-22
TX-23
WA-08

Tier 4
CA-21
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48*
CO-06
IL-06
IL-12
ME-02
MN-03
PA-07
PA-15
TX-07

*If Rohrabacher retires or is indicted by Mueller, CA-48 goes to Tier 2

Tier 5
IL-13
IL-14
IA-03
KS-02
KS-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
PA-06
TX-32
UT-04
VA-02

Tier 6
FL-18
FL-25
GA-06
KY-06
MI-08
MT-AL
NJ-03
NM-02
NY-01
OH-01
PA-16
VA-05
VA-07

Tier 7
These flip in a Democratic tidal wave or a circumstance that is unique to the race
CO-03
FL-06
GA-07
IN-02
MI-01
MI-07
NY-02*
NY-21
NY-23
NC-02
NC-09
NC-13
OH-10**
OH-14
PA-18
TX-21
TX-24
WA-03
WA-05
WV-02
WV-03
WI-01
WI-08

*King is speculated to be retiring, but waiting until the filing deadline passes so that his daughter can be chosen at a convention. If this happens, NY-02 goes to Tier 4
**Turner is speculated to also be considering retirement, in which case OH-10 would go to tier 5
« Last Edit: December 06, 2017, 08:14:12 am by PragmaticPopulist »Logged
The Saint
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« Reply #33 on: December 05, 2017, 07:42:21 pm »

*King is speculated to be retiring, but waiting until the filing deadline passes so that his daughter can be chosen at a convention.

Nepotism at its finest
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #34 on: December 06, 2017, 02:28:04 am »

Somewhere between D+10 and D+36
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Ruby2014
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« Reply #35 on: December 08, 2017, 02:43:12 am »

Dems have a good chance of picking up Florida 27 and 26, Texas 23, Colorado 6, California 49, 48, and 25, Pennsylvania 6 and 8, and Virginia 10. But Republicans have a chance at winning some seats too. Pennsylvania 17, Illinois 17, Wisconsin 3, Minnesota 1 and 8, Iowa 2, New Hampshire 1 and 2,  Arizona 1, and Nevada 3 could all be play for the GOP.
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« Reply #36 on: December 08, 2017, 02:47:24 am »

D+40-45.
 

That's a little bit much. No chance that happens. And the possibility of Pelosi being sleeker may not hurt in all the district's but in some it will hurt democrats and possibly cost them some seats.
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Lok
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« Reply #37 on: December 08, 2017, 03:28:16 am »

D+40-45.
 

That's a little bit much. No chance that happens. And the possibility of Pelosi being sleeker may not hurt in all the district's but in some it will hurt democrats and possibly cost them some seats.
At the end of the day, I really do not see Pelosi being an issue at all. There are much, much bigger things to deal with.
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« Reply #38 on: December 08, 2017, 05:28:30 pm »

My current midterm forecast ranges from R+5 to R+8 in the senate and from Even to D+10 in the house. However I do believe democrats should make some progress in Governerships, which will improve redistricting and allow democrats to flip the house in 2022, especially considering this will probably be trumps second midterm which are known to be much worse for incumbent parties then the first one especially for republicans.
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Lok
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« Reply #39 on: December 08, 2017, 06:10:53 pm »

My current midterm forecast ranges from R+5 to R+8 in the senate and from Even to D+10 in the house. However I do believe democrats should make some progress in Governerships, which will improve redistricting and allow democrats to flip the house in 2022, especially considering this will probably be trumps second midterm which are known to be much worse for incumbent parties then the first one especially for republicans.
Just... stop...
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« Reply #40 on: December 21, 2017, 04:11:39 pm »

My current midterm forecast ranges from R+5 to R+8 in the senate and from Even to D+10 in the house. However I do believe democrats should make some progress in Governerships, which will improve redistricting and allow democrats to flip the house in 2022, especially considering this will probably be trumps second midterm which are known to be much worse for incumbent parties then the first one especially for republicans.
I really don't get why a democrat is a partisan republican hack.
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« Reply #41 on: December 21, 2017, 04:14:10 pm »

Img


Democrat Gain: 33

Safe D: 182
Likely D: 16
Lean D: 29
Lean R: 15
Likely R: 21
Safe R: 172
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« Reply #42 on: December 21, 2017, 08:38:10 pm »

My current midterm forecast ranges from R+5 to R+8 in the senate and from Even to D+10 in the house. However I do believe democrats should make some progress in Governerships, which will improve redistricting and allow democrats to flip the house in 2022, especially considering this will probably be trumps second midterm which are known to be much worse for incumbent parties then the first one especially for republicans.
😒
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King Lear
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« Reply #43 on: December 21, 2017, 08:43:27 pm »

My updated house forecast is D+10 if Democrats are having a bad midterm and getting blown out in the senate because their base didn’t show up while the republicans did. However my forecast is D+26 if Democrats are flipping the house and holding their ground if not flipping the senate because their base did show up while the republicans stayed home.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #44 on: December 21, 2017, 08:51:46 pm »

My updated house forecast is D+10 if Democrats are having a bad midterm and getting blown out in the senate because their base didnít show up while the republicans did. However my forecast is D+26 if Democrats are flipping the house and holding their ground if not flipping the senate because their base did show up while the republicans stayed home.
So D+26 then.
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« Reply #45 on: December 23, 2017, 02:44:39 am »

I am always cautious. D+20 right now. But only because Democrats frequently lose a number of seats "in the last month". If present tendencies will exist by Oct. 1st - D+35 is quite possible.
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MarkD
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« Reply #46 on: December 23, 2017, 07:41:36 pm »

I'm calling it now, Dems will retake the house and have a net gain of at least 30 seats.


Democrat Gain: 33

Safe D: 182
Likely D: 16
Lean D: 29
Lean R: 15
Likely R: 21
Safe R: 172
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olowakandi
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« Reply #47 on: December 23, 2017, 07:51:23 pm »

Hopefully, 25 seats will be the Majority Democratic party in the House and more to come, as wave is beginning to build.
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« Reply #48 on: December 23, 2017, 08:06:48 pm »

I'm calling it now, Dems will retake the house and have a net gain of at least 30 seats.


Democrat Gain: 33

Safe D: 182
Likely D: 16
Lean D: 29
Lean R: 15
Likely R: 21
Safe R: 172

Do you actually agree with all my exact figures & ratings?

Hopefully, 25 seats will be the Majority Democratic party in the House and more to come, as wave is beginning to build.

I though Democrats only needed +24 to take the House, but I have been seeing the 25 number a lot lately.  Why is that?
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MarkD
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« Reply #49 on: December 23, 2017, 08:38:34 pm »

I agree generally with your figures.
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