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Author Topic: 2018 House Predictions  (Read 13489 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #50 on: December 23, 2017, 09:15:20 pm »

I think 25 is being used because the GOP will probably gain MN-01.
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Mondale
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« Reply #51 on: December 23, 2017, 09:22:47 pm »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #52 on: December 24, 2017, 01:29:09 am »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.

And Trump impeached as "cherry on the cake". People can dream))))
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Mondale
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« Reply #53 on: December 24, 2017, 01:36:58 am »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.

And Trump impeached jailed as "cherry on the cake". People can dream)))) Dreams do come true

Now your talking smolty
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« Reply #54 on: December 24, 2017, 02:54:52 pm »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.
Yeah, this is a very hackish prediction. I will say though, if McCain resigns, I think the Senate is Lean D.
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Pericles
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« Reply #55 on: December 24, 2017, 04:08:40 pm »

I think Senate is anywhere between 51 Republicans and 48 Republicans. The House flips, Democrats get at least 230 seats(but this requires a double-digit popular vote win, and going beyond 250 is a stretch). In governorships Democrats probably gain parity or an outright majority(at least 25).
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Castro
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« Reply #56 on: December 24, 2017, 10:04:07 pm »

I've updated my model, this time also putting in a predictive part. Based on available information, it shows a swing of 25 Republicans and 2 Democrats. Adjusting for predicted trends in data, it shows 38 Republican and 1 Democratic held seat will flip, for a net gain of 37 seats to Democrats. I should note that this will probably be more accurate once fourth quarter fundraising numbers come out, and that I'm counting AZ-02 as an open seat. The main problem right now is a lack of information, which will improve as more polling and more up to date fundraising totals come in. While cumulative probabilities add up to roughly a 38 seat swing towards Democrats and a 1 seat swing for Republicans, I'm not saying it will necessarily follow this exact order. The most vulnerable seat is MN-01 for Democrats.

Republican Order of Vulnerability:


1. FL-27 - OPEN
------------------
2. FL-26 - Carlos Curbelo
3. CA-49 - Darrell Issa
4. AZ-02 - OPEN
5. TX-07 - John Culberson
6. VA-10 - Barbara Comstock
---------------------------------
7. NE-02 - Don Bacon
8. IL-06 - Peter Roskam
9. MN-03 - Erik Paulsen
10. NJ-11 - Rodney Frelinghuysen
11. CO-06 - Mike Coffman
12. CA-25 - Steve Knight
13. CA-48 - Dana Rohrabacher
----------------------------------
14. CA-10 - Jeff Denham
15. CA-45 - Mimi Walters
16. NY-22 - Claudia Tenney
17. NY-19 - John Faso
18. TX-23 - Will Hurd
19. MN-02 - Jason Lewis
20. NJ-02 - OPEN
21. IA-01 - Rod Blum
22. WA-08 - OPEN
23. PA-07 - Pat Meehan
24. CA-39 - Ed Royce
25. CA-21 - David Valadao   (Nowcast)
26. PA-08 - Brian Fitzpatrick
--------------------------------
27. MI-11 - OPEN
28. TX-32 - Pete Sessions
29. NJ-07 - Leonard Lance
30. NY-24 - John Katko
31. IA-03 - David Young
32. KS-02 - OPEN
33. MI-08 - Mike Bishop
34. GA-06 - Karen Handel
35. KS-03 - Kevin Yoder
36. ME-02 - Bruce Poliquin
37. PA-15  - OPEN
--------------------
38. MT-AL - Greg Gianforte   (Forecast)
39. NC-09 - Robert Pittenger
40. VA-05 - Tom Garrett
41. WI-06 - Glenn Grothman
42. PA-16 - Lloyd Smucker
43. VA-07 - Dave Brat
44. PA-06 - Ryan Costello
45. UT-04 - Mia Love
46. IL-12 - Mike Bost
47. KY-06 - Andy Barr
48. NC-02 - George Holding
49. NY-11 - Dan Donovan
50. VA-02 - Scott Taylor
51. GA-07 - Rob Woodall
52. FL-25 - Mario Diaz-Balart
53. FL-18 - Brian Mast
54. IL-14    - Randy Hultgren
55. WI-01 - Paul Ryan
56. CA-50 - Duncan Hunter
57. IL-13    - Rodney Davis
58. NJ-03 - Tom MacArthur
59. OH-01 - Steve Chabot
60. MI-06 - Fred Upton
---------------------
61. NC-13 - Ted Budd
62. WA-05 - Cathy McMorris Rodgers
63. TX-24 - Kenny Marchant
64. TX-31 - John Carter
65. NY-01 - Lee Zeldin
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #57 on: December 25, 2017, 05:25:20 am »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.

And Trump impeached jailed as "cherry on the cake". People can dream)))) Dreams do come true

Now your talking smolty

I already did my. For now - D+20. But i can (and will) revise predictions later
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Mondale
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« Reply #58 on: December 25, 2017, 06:48:41 pm »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.
Yeah, this is a very hackish prediction. I will say though, if McCain resigns, I think the Senate is Lean D.

It does seem hackish but I'm not a registered Democrat. I think Trump is the spark that brings about a huge increase in Civic participation, especially for an ascending generation that by 2018 will eclipse Boomers for the first time ever.

What you have is a situation where the perfect storm is forming for many different reasons and not just the reason aforementioned above. Had any other Republican been elected, it wouldn't of happened tho.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #59 on: December 25, 2017, 07:59:22 pm »

D+3

Gains:
FL-27
VA-10
CA-49
CA-10
CA-25
AZ-2
NJ-2
FL-26


Losses:
MN-8
MN-1
MN-7
OH-13
IL-17
PA-17
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« Reply #60 on: December 25, 2017, 08:03:32 pm »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.
Yeah, this is a very hackish prediction. I will say though, if McCain resigns, I think the Senate is Lean D.

It does seem hackish but I'm not a registered Democrat. I think Trump is the spark that brings about a huge increase in Civic participation, especially for an ascending generation that by 2018 will eclipse Boomers for the first time ever.

What you have is a situation where the perfect storm is forming for many different reasons and not just the reason aforementioned above. Had any other Republican been elected, it wouldn't of happened tho.

Maybe if Jeb/Christie/Kasich had been elected and tried to govern from the center, no one would've cared, but do you think that if a Tea Party candidate had been elected and implemented far-right policy reforms with Goldwater-style zero compromise (unlike Reagan/GWB who tried to compromise), no one would have noticed?
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uti2
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« Reply #61 on: December 25, 2017, 08:08:43 pm »

^ So  Scott Walker is elected w/ 55 senate seats, privatizes medicare/ss and no one notices?
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Mondale
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« Reply #62 on: December 25, 2017, 08:18:28 pm »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.
Yeah, this is a very hackish prediction. I will say though, if McCain resigns, I think the Senate is Lean D.

It does seem hackish but I'm not a registered Democrat. I think Trump is the spark that brings about a huge increase in Civic participation, especially for an ascending generation that by 2018 will eclipse Boomers for the first time ever.

What you have is a situation where the perfect storm is forming for many different reasons and not just the reason aforementioned above. Had any other Republican been elected, it wouldn't of happened tho.

Maybe if Jeb/Christie/Kasich had been elected and tried to govern from the center, no one would've cared, but do you think that if a Tea Party candidate had been elected and implemented far-right policy reforms with Goldwater-style zero compromise (unlike Reagan/GWB who tried to compromise), no one would have noticed?

Probably not if they behaved themselves. Bush lied about Iraq then got re elected and increased GOP majorities in both Houses in 2004. Why? Because Bush was affable and cunning.
Trump is not....he just makes things up as he goes along and it's obvious.

The thing about Trump is that he's fundamentally a repulsive human being and hating someone is a far greater electoral motivator. No matter what Trump does, even with good intentions, it's seen as a scam or con and there's nothing the GOP can do to change voters perceptions of that. The tax bill is one example....maybe the bill isn't that bad, but because Trump is unpopular, a known huckster, and wealthy, people assume it's a con job to enrich himself. No other GOP candidate would of brought such suspicion or evoked such distaste

Trump's personality and behavior are really 90% of people's motivation to vote against the GOP. Most people don't even care about the policies or positions. It's just: " uh, that vile man!"
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uti2
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« Reply #63 on: December 25, 2017, 08:31:45 pm »

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.
Yeah, this is a very hackish prediction. I will say though, if McCain resigns, I think the Senate is Lean D.

It does seem hackish but I'm not a registered Democrat. I think Trump is the spark that brings about a huge increase in Civic participation, especially for an ascending generation that by 2018 will eclipse Boomers for the first time ever.

What you have is a situation where the perfect storm is forming for many different reasons and not just the reason aforementioned above. Had any other Republican been elected, it wouldn't of happened tho.

Maybe if Jeb/Christie/Kasich had been elected and tried to govern from the center, no one would've cared, but do you think that if a Tea Party candidate had been elected and implemented far-right policy reforms with Goldwater-style zero compromise (unlike Reagan/GWB who tried to compromise), no one would have noticed?

Probably not if they behaved themselves. Bush lied about Iraq then got re elected and increased GOP majorities in both Houses in 2004. Why? Because Bush was affable and cunning.
Trump is not....he just makes things up as he goes along and it's obvious.

The thing about Trump is that he's fundamentally a repulsive human being and hating someone is a far greater electoral motivator. No matter what Trump does, even with good intentions, it's seen as a scam or con and there's nothing the GOP can do to change voters perceptions of that. The tax bill is one example....maybe the bill isn't that bad, but because Trump is unpopular, a known huckster, and wealthy, people assume it's a con job to enrich himself. No other GOP candidate would of brought such suspicion or evoked such distaste

Trump's personality and behavior are really 90% of people's motivation to vote against the GOP. Most people don't even care about the policies or positions. It's just: " uh, that vile man!"

Bush at least pretended to be a moderate in some respects. He expanded Medicare (Part D), supported the No Child Left Behind Act, etc. That's maybe what Jeb or Kasich may have tried to do, so Jeb/Kasich have a healthcare plan that is Obamacare-lite, and they invest in the DOE to implement Common Core, etc.

The bulk of the Tea Party candidates running made no pretensions of moderation. They would've nominated Secretaries of Education on par with Devos (without the Devos part), etc.
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« Reply #64 on: December 25, 2017, 10:52:58 pm »

D+3

Gains:
FL-27
VA-10
CA-49
CA-10
CA-25
AZ-2
NJ-2
FL-26


Losses:
MN-8
MN-1
MN-7
OH-13
IL-17
PA-17
I'm glad you've changed your avatar to reflect your ACTUAL party affiliation.
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« Reply #65 on: December 28, 2017, 03:11:16 pm »

This far out? Anywhere from D+30 to D+80
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lincolnatlasian
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« Reply #66 on: December 28, 2017, 11:50:09 pm »

This far out? Anywhere from R+5 D+30 to D+80


FTFY
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #67 on: December 30, 2017, 04:05:07 pm »

Gonna borrow from Castro and rank/tier each race by vulnerability

Tier 1
1. FL-27 (OPEN - Ros-Lehtinen)
Tier 2
2. VA-10 (Comstock)
3. NJ-02 (OPEN - LoBiondo)
4. AZ-02 (OPEN - McSally)
5. CA-49 (Issa)
Tier 3
6. MN-02 (Lewis)
7. WA-08 (OPEN - Reichert)
8. FL-26 (Curbelo)
9. CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
10. NE-02 (Bacon)
11. MI-11 (OPEN - Trott)
12. CA-25 (Knight)
13. CA-10 (Denham)
14. NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen)
15. TX-07 (Culberson)
16. NY-22 (Tenney)
Tier 4
17. NY-19 (Faso)
18. CO-06 (Coffman)
19. MN-03 (Paulsen)
20. CA-39 (Royce)
21. TX-23 (Hurd)
22. IL-06 (Roskam) -----> current projection
23. IA-01 (Blum)
24. PA-15 (OPEN - Dent)
Tier 5
25. KS-02 (OPEN - Jenkins)
26. IL-12 (Bost)
27. ME-02 (Poliquin)
28. KY-06 (Barr)
29. GA-06 (Handel)
30. KS-03 (Yoder)
31. CA-21 (Valadao)
32. NJ-07 (Lance)
33. CA-45 (Walters)
34. TX-32 (Sessions)
35. NY-24 (Katko)
36. PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
37. PA-06 (Costello)
38. MT-AL (Gianforte)
39. VA-02 (Taylor)
40. WV-03 (OPEN - Jenkins)
Tier 6
41. PA-07 (Meehan)
42. UT-04 (Love)
43. NJ-03 (MacArthur)
44. MI-06 (Upton)
45. IA-03 (Young)
46. FL-18 (Mast)
47. VA-07 (Brat)
48. VA-05 (Garrett)
49. GA-07 (Woodall)
50. NM-02 (OPEN - Pearce)
51. PA-16 (Smucker)
52. NY-01 (Zeldin)
Tier 7
53. NC-13 (Budd)
54. TX-31 (Carter)
55. IL-13 (Davis)
56. CA-50 (Hunter)
57. NC-02 (Holding)
58. IL-14 (Hultgren)
59. MI-07 (Walberg)
60. MI-08 (Bishop)
61. WI-01 (Ryan)
62. NC-09 (Pittenger)
63. OH-01 (Chabot)
64. FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)

Dems as well:

Tier 1
None -----> current projection (rip)
Tier 2
1. MN-01 (OPEN-Walz)
Tier 3
2. NH-01 (OPEN-Shea-Porter)
3. NV-03 (OPEN-Rosen)
Tier 4
4. MN-08 (Nolan)
5. NV-04 (OPEN - Kihuen)
Tier 5
6. FL-07 (Murphy)
7. NJ-05 (Gottheimer)
8. AZ-01 (O'Halleran)
Tier 6
9. MN-07 (Peterson)
10. FL-13 (Crist)

After that doesn't really matter
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 04:25:43 pm by Rep. Pessimistic Antineutrino »Logged
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« Reply #68 on: December 30, 2017, 05:48:06 pm »

Safe D:
Any D seat not otherwise listed!
FL-27

Likely D:
NY-03
NY-18
NJ-05
PA-17
MN-03
MN-08
IL-06
IL-17
VA-10
FL-26
AZ-01
CO-06
WA-08
NV-04
CA-07
CA-49

Lean D:
ME-02
NH-01
NY-19
NY-22
NY-24
NJ-02
NJ-07
NJ-11
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
MI-11
MN-01
MN-02
MN-07
IA-01
IA-03
VA-02
TX-23
AZ-02
KS-03
NE-02
NV-03
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48

Lean R:
NY-02
NY-11
NJ-03
PA-15
PA-16
MI-08
WI-01
OH-12
IL-12
IL-13
IL-14
VA-07
KY-06
GA-06
FL-18
FL-25
MT-01
TX-07
TX-32
KS-02
WA-03

Likely R:
NY-01
NY-21
NY-23
NJ-04
PA-11
PA-18
MI-03
MI-06
MI-07
WI-06
WI-08
OH-01
OH-10
OH-14
IN-05
IL-16
MO-02
VA-01
VA-05
NC-13
TX-21
NM-02
NV-02
CA-22

Safe R:
Any R seat not otherwise listed!

Right now, I am thinking about possibly moving a few of the Lean/Likely D seats up to Likely/Safe D.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 05:58:24 pm by Solid4096 »Logged
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« Reply #69 on: January 02, 2018, 12:10:44 am »

Right now I'd say anything from D+25 to D+50 is possible, with D+30-35 being what I think is most likely. D+1 to D+4 in the Senate is also possible (D+4 ONLY possible if it's Bredesen v. Blackburn in TN and Ted Cruz takes a popularity hit, normally I'd say TX is off the table but IIRC Cruz's favorables are lower in TX than Roy "Mary was underaged too" Moore's were in AL on Dec. 12, sooo...), with D+2 being most likely to me (Heller loses and Sinema wins in AZ).

In 2020 I'd lean towards a large Dem victory in the Presidential election, which would coattail Congressional Dems to a few more House and Senate seats (how many House seats depends on both 2018 and 2020).

If Trump wins in 2020, 2022 will be an absolute massacre for Republicans in the House and Senate, and 2024 would be bad too.
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« Reply #70 on: February 10, 2018, 03:11:57 pm »

I included any remotely competitive seat in this list by the broadest definition of competitive. Taking into account a model with 4Q fundraising, 2016/2017 congressional performance, "expert" prognosticator rankings, and 2016 Clinton/Trump margin,  I have this order of vulnerability:

Republicans:

1   FL-27   OPEN
------------------------- Safe D
2   CA-49   OPEN
3   AZ-02   OPEN
4   CA-39   OPEN
5   PA-07   OPEN
------------------------- Likely D
6   NJ-02   OPEN
7   CA-25   Steve Knight
8   NJ-11   OPEN
9   CO-06   Mike Coffman
10   MI-11   OPEN
11   MN-02   Jason Lewis
12   CA-48   Dana Rohrabacher
--------------------------------------- Lean D
13   NY-19   John Faso
14   TX-07   John Culberson
15   TX-23   Will Hurd
16   VA-10   Barbara Comstock
17   NE-02   Don Bacon
18   FL-26   Carlos Curbelo
19   IA-01   Rod Blum
20   NY-22   Claudia Tenney
21   CA-45   Mimi Walters
--------------------------------- Tilt D
22   MN-03   Erik Paulsen
23   NJ-07   Leonard Lance
24   WA-08   OPEN
25   PA-06   Ryan Costello
26   CA-10   Jeff Denham
27   PA-15   OPEN
28   KS-02   OPEN
29   PA-18   OPEN
30   TX-21   OPEN
------------------------- Toss-up
31   GA-06   Karen Handel
32   NC-13   Ted Budd
33   PA-16   Lloyd Smucker
34   UT-04   Mia Love
35   IL-12   Mike Bost
36   MI-08   Mike Bishop
37   PA-08   Brian Fitzpatrick
38   IA-03   David Young
39   NM-02   OPEN
40   IL-06   Peter Roskam
41   VA-05   Tom Garrett
42   CA-21   David Valadao
43   OH-01   Steve Chabot
44   VA-07   Dave Brat
45   CA-50   Duncan Hunter
46   NJ-03   Tom MacArthur
47   MI-06   Fred Upton
48   KS-03   Kevin Yoder
-------------------------------- Tilt R
49   SC-05   Ralph Norman
50   WI-06   Glenn Grothman
51   NC-09   Robert Pittenger
52   TX-32   Pete Sessions
53   MT-AL   Greg Gianforte
54   FL-06   OPEN
55   CA-04   Tom McClintock
56   FL-18   Brian Mast
57   NC-02   George Holding
58   VA-02   Scott Taylor
59   FL-16   Vern Buchanan
60   NY-11   Dan Donovan
61   NY-24   John Katko
62   MO-02   Ann Wagner
63   TX-06   OPEN
64   IL-14   Randy Hultgren
65   KY-06   Andy Barr
66   ME-02   Bruce Poliquin
67   WA-05   Cathy McMorris Rodgers
68   CA-01   Doug LaMalfa
69   NJ-04   Chris Smith
70   WI-01   Paul Ryan
71   OH-12   OPEN
72   CA-08   Paul Cook
73   GA-07   Rob Woodall
74   NY-02   Pete King
75   TX-02   OPEN
------------------------- Lean R
76   IL-13   Rodney Davis
77   MI-01   Jack Bergman
78   CO-03   Scott Tipton
79   IA-04   Steve King
80   AZ-08   OPEN
81   IN-02   Jackie Walorski
82   PA-11   OPEN
83   AR-02   French Hill
84   FL-25   Mario Diaz-Balart
85   OK-05   Steve Russell
86   SC-01   Mark Sanford
87   TX-31   John Carter
88   IN-09   Trey Hollingsworth
89   NY-01   Lee Zeldin
90   MI-07   Tim Walberg
91   NY-27   Chris Collins
92   TX-10   Michael McCaul
93   TX-22   Pete Olson
94   TX-24   Kenny Marchant
95   SD-AL   OPEN
96   WV-03   OPEN
97   MI-03   Justin Amash
98   OH-16   OPEN
99   WA-03   Jaime Herrera Beutler
100   IN-03   Jim Banks
101   KS-04   Ron Estes
102   MD-01   Andy Harris
103   OH-07   Bob Gibbs
104   CA-22   Devin Nunes
105   FL-15   Dennis Ross
106   NC-08   Richard Hudson
107   NY-23   Tom Reed
108   OH-10   Michael Turner
109   AZ-06   Dave Schweikert
110   OH-14   David Joyce
-------------------------------- Likely R
111   NY-21   Elise Stefanik
112   WV-01   David McKinley
113   OH-15   Steve Stivers
114   AL-02   Martha Roby
115   WI-07   Sean Duffy
116   WV-02   Alex Mooney
--------------------------------- Safe R

Democrats:

1   MN-08   OPEN
------------------------- Lean R
2   MN-01   OPEN
------------------------- Tilt R
3   MN-07   Collin Peterson
----------------------------------- Tilt D
4   NV-03   OPEN
5   NH-01   OPEN
6   PA-17   Matt Cartwright
------------------------------------ Lean D
7   NJ-05   Josh Gottheimer
8   AZ-01   Tom O'Halleran
9   NV-04   OPEN
10   FL-07   Stephanie Murphy
11   IA-02   Dave Loebsack
12   NY-18   Sean Patrick Maloney
13   FL-13   Charlie Crist
14   NH-02   Ann Kuster
15   WI-03   Ron Kind
16   CA-07   Ami Bera
17   AZ-09   OPEN
------------------------- Likely D
18   NY-03   Tom Suozzi
19   CA-24   Salud Carbajal
20   IL-17   Cheri Bustos
-------------------------- Safe D

In total, I'm currently predicting a gain of 42 seats for Democrats, and a gain of 2 seats for Republicans, with a net gain of 40 seats for Democrats.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #71 on: August 24, 2018, 09:23:12 am »

Democrats are already favored to gain 23 seats (!), so Republicans pretty much need to sweep all the Tossup races and most likely some of the Lean D seats to even stand a chance of holding the House. Definitely an uphill battle.

My ratings:

Safe R:

Any R seat not otherwise listed.

Likely R:

AK-AL (Young)
AL-02 (Roby)
AR-02 (Hill)
CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CA-42 (Calvert)
CO-03 (Tipton)
FL-06 (DeSantis)
FL-18 (Mast)
MI-01 (Bergman)
MI-06 (Upton)
MI-07 (Walberg)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NY-02 (King)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NY-27 (Collins)
NC-06 (Walker)
OH-10 (Turner)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OH-16 (Renacci)
PA-14 (OPEN) (FLIP)
SC-01 (Sanford)
SC-05 (Norman)
SD-AL (Noem)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WI-06 (Grothman)
TX-02 (Poe)
TX-03 (Johnson)
TX-06 (Barton)
TX-10 (McCaul)
TX-22 (Olson)
TX-24 (Marchant)
TX-31 (Carter)

Lean R:

AZ-06 (Schweikert)
AZ-08 (Lesko)
FL-16 (Buchanan)
FL-15 (Ross)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
CA-50 (Hunter)
GA-06 (Handel)
GA-07 (Woodall)
MO-02 (Wagner)
MT-AL (Gianforte)
NM-02 (Pearce)
NY-01 (Zeldin)
NY-11 (Donovan)
NY-24 (Katko)
NC-02 (Holding)
NC-13 (Budd)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OK-05 (Russell)
PA-10 (Perry)
PA-16 (Kelly)
UT-04 (Love)
VA-05 (Garrett)
WA-03 (Herrera Beutler)
WA-05 (Rodgers)
WI-01 (Ryan)
TX-21 (Smith)

Tossup:

CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-45 (Walters)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IA-01 (Blum)
IA-03 (Young)
IL-12 (Bost)
IL-13 (R. Davis)
IL-14 (Hultgren)
KS-02 (Jenkins)
KS-03 (Yoder)
KY-06 (Barr)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
MI-08 (Bishop)
MN-01 (Walz)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-03 (McArthur)
NY-19 (Faso)
NC-09 (Pittenger)
OH-01 (Chabot)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Taylor)
VA-07 (Brat)
WV-03 (Jenkins)
TX-32 (Sessions)

Lean D:

CA-10 (Denham) (FLIP)
CA-25 (Knight) (FLIP)
CA-39 (Royce) (FLIP)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher) (FLIP)
CO-06 (Coffman) (FLIP)
IL-06 (Roskam) (FLIP)
MI-11 (Trott) (FLIP)
MN-02 (Lewis) (FLIP)
MN-03 (Paulsen) (FLIP)
MN-07 (Peterson)
NJ-07 (Lance) (FLIP)
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) (FLIP)
NY-22 (Tenney) (FLIP)
WA-08 (Reichert) (FLIP)
TX-07 (Culberson) (FLIP)
TX-23 (Hurd) (FLIP)

Likely D:

AZ-01 (O'Halleran)
AZ-02 (McSally) (FLIP)
CA-07 (Bera)
CA-49 (Issa) (FLIP)
FL-07 (Murphy)
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen) (FLIP)
NV-03 (Rosen)
NV-04 (Kihuen)
NJ-02 (LoBiondo) (FLIP)
NJ-05 (Gottheimer)
PA-07 (Dent) (FLIP)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (Rothfus/Lamb) (FLIP)
WI-03 (Kind)

Safe D:

PA-05 (Meehan) (FLIP)
PA-06 (Costello) (FLIP)
VA-10 (Comstock) (FLIP)

Any D seat not otherwise listed.
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Ohio more D than Texas
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« Reply #72 on: August 24, 2018, 11:30:39 am »

Likely R:
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-06 (Schweikert)
AZ-08 (Lesko)
CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-22 (Nunes)
FL-06 (DeSantis)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
GA-06 (Handel)
GA-07 (Woodall)
IN-02 (Walorski)
IN-09 (Hollingsworth)
IA-04 (King)
KS-04 (Estes)
MI-02 (Huzienga)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NY-01 (Zeldin)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NY-27 (Collins)
NC-08 (Hudson)
ND-AL (Cramer)
OH-07 (Gibbs)
OH-10 (Turner)
OK-05 (Russell)
PA-14 (Lamb)
SD-AL (Noem)
TX-02 (Poe)
TX-21 (Smith)
TX-22 (Olson)
TX-31 (Carter)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WV-02 (Mooney)
WI-07 (Duffy)
WI-08 (Gallagher)

Lean R:
AR-02 (Hill)
CA-50 (Hunter)
CO-03 (Tipton)
FL-15 (Ross)
FL-16 (Buchanan)
FL-18 (Mast)
IL-13 (Davis)
IL-14 (Hultgren)
MI-01 (Bergman)
MI-06 (Upton)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MO-02 (Wagner)
NY-11 (Donovan)
NY-24 (Katko)
NC-02 (Holding)
NC-13 (Budd)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
PA-01 (Fitzparick)
PA-10 (Perry)
PA-16 (Kelly)
SC-01 (Sanford)
UT-04 (Love)
VA-05 (Garrett)
WA-03 (Herrera Butler)
WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers)
WI-01 (Ryan)
WI-06 (Grothman)

Tossup:
CA-45 (Walters)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-12 (Bost)
IA-03 (Young)
KS-02 (Jenkins)
KS-03 (Yoder)
KY-06 (Barr)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
MI-08 (Bishop)
MN-01 (Walz)
MN-03 (Paulsen)
MT-AL (Gianforte)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-03 (MacArthur)
NJ-07 (Lance)
NM-02 (Pearce)
NY-19 (Faso)
OH-01 (Chabot)
TX-07 (Culberson)
TX-23 (Hurd)
TX-32 (Sessions)
VA-07 (Brat)
WV-03 (Jenkins)

Lean D:
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-39 (Royce)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
CO-06 (Coffman)
IA-01 (Blum)
MI-11 (Trott)
MN-02 (Lewis)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NY-22 (Tenney)
NC-09 (Pittenger)
PA-07 (Dent)
TX-32 (Sessions)
VA-02 (Taylor)
WA-08 (Reichert)

Likely D:
AZ-02 (McSally)
CA-49 (Issa)
CT-05 (Etsy)
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
MN-07 (Peterson)
NV-03 (Rosen)
NV-04 (Kihuen)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen)
PA-06 (Costello)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (Rothfus v Lamb)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Safe D:
NJ-02 (LoBiondo)
PA-05 (Meehan)
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #73 on: September 08, 2018, 04:18:31 am »

Right now i am ready for one prediction ONLY: IF deciding factor will be the state of economy - Republicans will get good chances not only to preserve Senate majority, but House too. IF the main factor will be different (Trump himself, for example) - Democrats will have not only good chances in House races, but will,  at least, preserve their present position  in Senate.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #74 on: September 08, 2018, 02:19:15 pm »

Same as 2006, 30+ seats
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