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  2018 House Predictions
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Author Topic: 2018 House Predictions  (Read 14315 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #75 on: September 09, 2018, 11:22:11 pm »

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/BKQb0wp

Light colors indicate a pickup

CA-20, TX-01, and TX-25 are errors.

Mine's pretty much the same if you swap KS-02 and MI-08 for KY-06, MN-01, OH-01, and NY-19.
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J. J.
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« Reply #76 on: September 10, 2018, 12:19:08 pm »
« Edited: September 10, 2018, 12:53:28 pm by J. J. »

I won't attempt to do it by districts, but a Democratic gain 28 to 38 seats.  

Some things of note:

In 2018, far from being a disaster for the Democrats, was not a bad year, they gained 6 seats in the House.

In by-elections, Democrats gained 3 seats.

They could get 2/3 of the votes they lost since 2010, and probably get at least half back.  

There are five vacancies.  Totals are Democratic 193, Republican 237, vacancies 5.  I expect those to beak down 4D/1R.  (197 D/238 R)

My guess that the Democrats will get 230 seats, +/-5,  Republican getting around 205 +/-5.  It is a bit more likely to slide up for the Democrats.  About D gain of 37 seats, counting the vacancies.

If it is below 225 D, Pelosi will have problem. 

Off the Democrat's low point, 2014, they would be gaining 42 seats +/- 5

No one will be more surprised than me if the Republicans hold the House.
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« Reply #77 on: September 23, 2018, 08:07:38 pm »

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politicallefty
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« Reply #78 on: September 24, 2018, 04:35:12 am »

I'm not ready to do a district-by-district prediction just yet, but it's a lot easier to get into the 40+ range than I thought. I think I said +47 in a prediction topic awhile ago and I think that's roughly what we're going to get. I'm thinking Democrats gain 45-50 seats, basically a mirror of the current House Majority. Obviously, that's a not a final prediction. We'll see how the remaining few weeks go, but I think the current district polling and overall environment is indicative of a tsunami not unlike 1994 or 2010.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #79 on: September 24, 2018, 06:01:59 am »

If Dems win it will be 30 seats
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Thunder98
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« Reply #80 on: September 24, 2018, 06:12:15 pm »

As of 9/24/2018

Dems 251 - GOP 184
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olowakandi
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« Reply #81 on: September 24, 2018, 09:27:18 pm »

No, it's probably 230-205 Dem😁
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #82 on: October 06, 2018, 12:22:11 pm »

Between 205 and 230 for BOTH parties (most likely - between 210 and 225). A lot of factors may be decisive with very high number of close races - even wheather in different parts of US on ED...
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #83 on: October 14, 2018, 04:58:47 pm »

228D-207R
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #84 on: October 16, 2018, 12:43:17 pm »
« Edited: October 16, 2018, 12:47:00 pm by АndriуValeriovich »

With Tossup
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Without Tossup
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #85 on: October 16, 2018, 01:30:21 pm »

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/Pp4L9xp

Lighter shade indicates pickup. Net Dems +35, 233-202
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Pericles
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« Reply #86 on: November 02, 2018, 03:47:59 am »

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Progressive
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« Reply #87 on: November 02, 2018, 05:24:42 pm »

+40 Dems
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olowakandi
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« Reply #88 on: November 02, 2018, 06:02:08 pm »

Dems 230-205
Dems will have 51 senators
Dems will have 25+ GOVS

As I stated before only 1 or 2 times have the House flipped without the Senate, and this election all three branches will have flipped.
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IA IS Safe R
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« Reply #89 on: November 02, 2018, 07:14:17 pm »

My (likely) final prediction.

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beesley
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« Reply #90 on: November 03, 2018, 12:53:48 pm »

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For some reason CA-10 comes up as Safe Dem, when I had it as Lean Dem.
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Frenchy
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« Reply #91 on: November 04, 2018, 12:29:20 pm »

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #92 on: November 05, 2018, 02:20:10 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2018, 02:24:24 pm by ElectionsGuy »

Rankings

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/9pn6eWp

Pickups

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/OK7Xxrp

D+36
R+2

Net: D+34

Democrats: 229
Republicans: 206

Upset Watch

AK-AL
CA-21
CO-03
FL-15
IL-14
NE-02
WV-03
WI-06
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JGibson
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« Reply #93 on: November 06, 2018, 04:11:03 am »

With Tossup, Tilt, Lean, Likely, and Safe:
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227 Democrats, 192 GOP, 16 Tossups [D+32]



Projections of who'll win:
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241 Democrats, 194 GOP [D+48]
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thumb21
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« Reply #94 on: November 06, 2018, 04:33:09 pm »

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Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists
Jalawest2
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« Reply #95 on: November 08, 2018, 11:08:12 pm »

Funny how Democrats only carried 3 of the 12 sure gains in the OP while actually winning the house.
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