2018 House Predictions

[The Other Castro]

Do Dems take the house if 2018 is a wave election?

Big enough wave, yes.

[The Other Castro]

I think we're going to end up very close to a split House, but right now I think I'm favoring Dems with about a +27 seat gain.

[The Other Castro]

I've been trying to work out some final touches in my spreadsheet for race evaluation, and for now it has given me this order of flipping for Republican-held seats:

Tier 1: Democrats are 100% guaranteed winning this seat
FL-27

Tier 2: Barring a major surprise, these should flip
CA-49
CA-25
VA-10
CA-48

Tier 3: I expect most of these to flip in a decent Democratic performance
NJ-2
NY-19
FL-26
NE-02
AZ-02
WA-08
CO-06
TX-07
NY-22
MN-03

Tier 4: I expect most of these to flip in a very good Democratic performance
TX-23
MI-11
MN-02
IA-01
CA-10
CA-39
TX-32
NJ-11
CA-45

Tier 5: I expect some of these to flip in a very good Democratic performance
PA-07
NJ-07
VA-02
NY-24
------> Cutoff point for my prediction, D+28.
IA-03
PA-15
ME-02

Tier 6: In a wave election, I think a few of these might flip
MI-08
UT-04
PA-16
IL-12
KY-06
KS-02

Tier 7: In a wave election, we could see a couple of these flip
KS-03
PA-06
MT-AL
PA-08
CA-21
NC-09
GA-06
VA-05
NY-11
VA-07
WI-16
CA-04
NC-02
CA-50

[The Other Castro]

I've updated my model, this time also putting in a predictive part. Based on available information, it shows a swing of 25 Republicans and 2 Democrats. Adjusting for predicted trends in data, it shows 38 Republican and 1 Democratic held seat will flip, for a net gain of 37 seats to Democrats. I should note that this will probably be more accurate once fourth quarter fundraising numbers come out, and that I'm counting AZ-02 as an open seat. The main problem right now is a lack of information, which will improve as more polling and more up to date fundraising totals come in. While cumulative probabilities add up to roughly a 38 seat swing towards Democrats and a 1 seat swing for Republicans, I'm not saying it will necessarily follow this exact order. The most vulnerable seat is MN-01 for Democrats.

Republican Order of Vulnerability:

1. FL-27 - OPEN
------------------
2. FL-26 - Carlos Curbelo
3. CA-49 - Darrell Issa
4. AZ-02 - OPEN
5. TX-07 - John Culberson
6. VA-10 - Barbara Comstock
---------------------------------
7. NE-02 - Don Bacon
8. IL-06 - Peter Roskam
9. MN-03 - Erik Paulsen
10. NJ-11 - Rodney Frelinghuysen
11. CO-06 - Mike Coffman
12. CA-25 - Steve Knight
13. CA-48 - Dana Rohrabacher
----------------------------------
14. CA-10 - Jeff Denham
15. CA-45 - Mimi Walters
16. NY-22 - Claudia Tenney
17. NY-19 - John Faso
18. TX-23 - Will Hurd
19. MN-02 - Jason Lewis
20. NJ-02 - OPEN
21. IA-01 - Rod Blum
22. WA-08 - OPEN
23. PA-07 - Pat Meehan
24. CA-39 - Ed Royce
25. CA-21 - David Valadao   (Nowcast)
26. PA-08 - Brian Fitzpatrick
--------------------------------
27. MI-11 - OPEN
28. TX-32 - Pete Sessions
29. NJ-07 - Leonard Lance
30. NY-24 - John Katko
31. IA-03 - David Young
32. KS-02 - OPEN
33. MI-08 - Mike Bishop
34. GA-06 - Karen Handel
35. KS-03 - Kevin Yoder
36. ME-02 - Bruce Poliquin
37. PA-15  - OPEN
--------------------
38. MT-AL - Greg Gianforte   (Forecast)
39. NC-09 - Robert Pittenger
40. VA-05 - Tom Garrett
41. WI-06 - Glenn Grothman
42. PA-16 - Lloyd Smucker
43. VA-07 - Dave Brat
44. PA-06 - Ryan Costello
45. UT-04 - Mia Love
46. IL-12 - Mike Bost
47. KY-06 - Andy Barr
48. NC-02 - George Holding
49. NY-11 - Dan Donovan
50. VA-02 - Scott Taylor
51. GA-07 - Rob Woodall
52. FL-25 - Mario Diaz-Balart
53. FL-18 - Brian Mast
54. IL-14    - Randy Hultgren
55. WI-01 - Paul Ryan
56. CA-50 - Duncan Hunter
57. IL-13    - Rodney Davis
58. NJ-03 - Tom MacArthur
59. OH-01 - Steve Chabot
60. MI-06 - Fred Upton
---------------------
61. NC-13 - Ted Budd
62. WA-05 - Cathy McMorris Rodgers
63. TX-24 - Kenny Marchant
64. TX-31 - John Carter
65. NY-01 - Lee Zeldin

[The Other Castro]

I included any remotely competitive seat in this list by the broadest definition of competitive. Taking into account a model with 4Q fundraising, 2016/2017 congressional performance, "expert" prognosticator rankings, and 2016 Clinton/Trump margin,  I have this order of vulnerability:

Republicans:

1   FL-27   OPEN
------------------------- Safe D
2   CA-49   OPEN
3   AZ-02   OPEN
4   CA-39   OPEN
5   PA-07   OPEN
------------------------- Likely D
6   NJ-02   OPEN
7   CA-25   Steve Knight
8   NJ-11   OPEN
9   CO-06   Mike Coffman
10   MI-11   OPEN
11   MN-02   Jason Lewis
12   CA-48   Dana Rohrabacher
--------------------------------------- Lean D
13   NY-19   John Faso
14   TX-07   John Culberson
15   TX-23   Will Hurd
16   VA-10   Barbara Comstock
17   NE-02   Don Bacon
18   FL-26   Carlos Curbelo
19   IA-01   Rod Blum
20   NY-22   Claudia Tenney
21   CA-45   Mimi Walters
--------------------------------- Tilt D
22   MN-03   Erik Paulsen
23   NJ-07   Leonard Lance
24   WA-08   OPEN
25   PA-06   Ryan Costello
26   CA-10   Jeff Denham
27   PA-15   OPEN
28   KS-02   OPEN
29   PA-18   OPEN
30   TX-21   OPEN
------------------------- Toss-up
31   GA-06   Karen Handel
32   NC-13   Ted Budd
33   PA-16   Lloyd Smucker
34   UT-04   Mia Love
35   IL-12   Mike Bost
36   MI-08   Mike Bishop
37   PA-08   Brian Fitzpatrick
38   IA-03   David Young
39   NM-02   OPEN
40   IL-06   Peter Roskam
41   VA-05   Tom Garrett
42   CA-21   David Valadao
43   OH-01   Steve Chabot
44   VA-07   Dave Brat
45   CA-50   Duncan Hunter
46   NJ-03   Tom MacArthur
47   MI-06   Fred Upton
48   KS-03   Kevin Yoder
-------------------------------- Tilt R
49   SC-05   Ralph Norman
50   WI-06   Glenn Grothman
51   NC-09   Robert Pittenger
52   TX-32   Pete Sessions
53   MT-AL   Greg Gianforte
54   FL-06   OPEN
55   CA-04   Tom McClintock
56   FL-18   Brian Mast
57   NC-02   George Holding
58   VA-02   Scott Taylor
59   FL-16   Vern Buchanan
60   NY-11   Dan Donovan
61   NY-24   John Katko
62   MO-02   Ann Wagner
63   TX-06   OPEN
64   IL-14   Randy Hultgren
65   KY-06   Andy Barr
66   ME-02   Bruce Poliquin
67   WA-05   Cathy McMorris Rodgers
68   CA-01   Doug LaMalfa
69   NJ-04   Chris Smith
70   WI-01   Paul Ryan
71   OH-12   OPEN
72   CA-08   Paul Cook
73   GA-07   Rob Woodall
74   NY-02   Pete King
75   TX-02   OPEN
------------------------- Lean R
76   IL-13   Rodney Davis
77   MI-01   Jack Bergman
78   CO-03   Scott Tipton
79   IA-04   Steve King
80   AZ-08   OPEN
81   IN-02   Jackie Walorski
82   PA-11   OPEN
83   AR-02   French Hill
84   FL-25   Mario Diaz-Balart
85   OK-05   Steve Russell
86   SC-01   Mark Sanford
87   TX-31   John Carter
88   IN-09   Trey Hollingsworth
89   NY-01   Lee Zeldin
90   MI-07   Tim Walberg
91   NY-27   Chris Collins
92   TX-10   Michael McCaul
93   TX-22   Pete Olson
94   TX-24   Kenny Marchant
95   SD-AL   OPEN
96   WV-03   OPEN
97   MI-03   Justin Amash
98   OH-16   OPEN
99   WA-03   Jaime Herrera Beutler
100   IN-03   Jim Banks
101   KS-04   Ron Estes
102   MD-01   Andy Harris
103   OH-07   Bob Gibbs
104   CA-22   Devin Nunes
105   FL-15   Dennis Ross
106   NC-08   Richard Hudson
107   NY-23   Tom Reed
108   OH-10   Michael Turner
109   AZ-06   Dave Schweikert
110   OH-14   David Joyce
-------------------------------- Likely R
111   NY-21   Elise Stefanik
112   WV-01   David McKinley
113   OH-15   Steve Stivers
114   AL-02   Martha Roby
115   WI-07   Sean Duffy
116   WV-02   Alex Mooney
--------------------------------- Safe R

Democrats:

1   MN-08   OPEN
------------------------- Lean R
2   MN-01   OPEN
------------------------- Tilt R
3   MN-07   Collin Peterson
----------------------------------- Tilt D
4   NV-03   OPEN
5   NH-01   OPEN
6   PA-17   Matt Cartwright
------------------------------------ Lean D
7   NJ-05   Josh Gottheimer
8   AZ-01   Tom O'Halleran
9   NV-04   OPEN
10   FL-07   Stephanie Murphy
11   IA-02   Dave Loebsack
12   NY-18   Sean Patrick Maloney
13   FL-13   Charlie Crist
14   NH-02   Ann Kuster
15   WI-03   Ron Kind
16   CA-07   Ami Bera
17   AZ-09   OPEN
------------------------- Likely D
18   NY-03   Tom Suozzi
19   CA-24   Salud Carbajal
20   IL-17   Cheri Bustos
-------------------------- Safe D

In total, I'm currently predicting a gain of 42 seats for Democrats, and a gain of 2 seats for Republicans, with a net gain of 40 seats for Democrats.