Polling for the Generic Congressional Ballot

[zorkpolitics]

The RealClear final average of polls had the Generic Congressional Democrat ahead by 0.6%.  But the actual total votes for Congressional candidates has the GOP up 1.1%.  Should the Generic Congressional Ballot polls be "weighted" to reflect reality and add 1.7% to the GOP?

The GOP win in Congressional voting is somewhat surprising since Clinton won the popular Presidential vote by 2.1%.  Why the disconnect between Presidential and Congressional voting?  Did  Trump perform 3.3% worse than a "real" Republican?  Did third party presidential candidates predominantly attract GOP voters?  If Trump had actually won the popular vote by 1.1% he would have won the additional states of NH, NV, MN, and ME.

[Jeppe]

It just probably means that more Johnson voters voted GOP downticket than Dem, and that some of the white suburban people that Clinton flipped voted for their Republican representatives.

[windjammer]

The RealClear final average of polls had the Generic Congressional Democrat ahead by 0.6%.  But the actual total votes for Congressional candidates has the GOP up 1.1%.  Should the Generic Congressional Ballot polls be "weighted" to reflect reality and add 1.7% to the GOP?

The GOP win in Congressional voting is somewhat surprising since Clinton won the popular Presidential vote by 2.1%.  Why the disconnect between Presidential and Congressional voting?  Did  Trump perform 3.3% worse than a "real" Republican?  Did third party presidential candidates predominantly attract GOP voters?  If Trump had actually won the popular vote by 1.1% he would have won the additional states of NH, NV, MN, and ME.

There were a lot of Clinton/rep congressman vote downballot.